Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Some NFL Degenerate Gambling…

And I mean it when I say “degenerate” this time. I was reading Bill Simmons’ week 2 NFL picks (hey, don’t judge) and one of his readers pointed out that when the CBS “experts” all agree on a pick against the spread, that pick is 0-9 dating back to the start of last year. So I went to the page just to see how these “experts” do long term, and… yikes. These guys combined for a 46.7% winning percentage against the spread last year, and are at 38.2% this year. That’s significantly worse than a coin flip! And they’re “experts”! Amazing!

So I have a new degenerate gambling strategy that I’m going to experiment with right now… and please, I beg you, don’t do this along with me unless you’re risking trivial amounts of money like I am. My new degenerate NFL gambling strategy is to take these eight “experts”… and pick the less popular team listed. That’s it! Each wager will be one dollar, because I’m just that much of a gambler.

Here is the link to who the “experts” like this week: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/2

That results in the following plays:

  • Carolina -2.5 (-115)
  • Buffalo -1 (-110)
  • Washington -6 (-110)
  • Dallas +3.5 (-115)
  • New York Giants +2.5 (-105): Every “expert” picked Arizona!
  • Minnesota +6.5 (-110): The line has moved 3 points since Adrian Peterson is out.
  • Cleveland +6.5 (-105)
  • Cincinnati -5.5 (-110)
  • St. Louis +5.5 (-110)
  • Seattle -5.5 (-110)
  • New York Jets +7.5 (-115)
  • Chicago +7 (-115)
  • Philadelphia +3 (-105)

This should make for an interesting little experiment here. I’ll check back next week to see how these picks did.

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5 responses to “Some NFL Degenerate Gambling…

  1. Howard Morton September 13, 2014 at 5:59 am

    Last week the public loved the Eagles and the Saints. Just going against the public you would have been 1-1 for minus the juice or a little profit if you moneyline instead of taking the points.

    • David Williams September 13, 2014 at 10:46 am

      I was actually in Las Vegas last Sunday and had a bet on the Falcons on the moneyline. It was amazing to hear the cheering in the sportsbook when the Saints scored, and the complete silence when the Falcons scored. When the Falcons won in OT, I might have been the only person there with a Falcons ticket to take to the booth.

  2. Howard Morton September 13, 2014 at 6:00 am

    I hit the 1st leg of 2 seperate parlays with Emanuel Newton.

  3. Howard Morton September 16, 2014 at 4:29 am

    Those NFL picks agaimst the experts did good. This should definetely be a weekly column.

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