UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs. Arlovski Degenerate Gambler’s Corner
September 12, 2014
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PICKS TO DATE
Last Event: 7-2 (77.8%)
Year To Date: 225-118 (65.6%)
Last week was good for my picks as both Joe Lauzon and Matt Mitrione won as underdogs.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$1.95
Current Bankroll: $77.35
Total Investment: $268.22
Total Return: $27.35
Return On Investment: 10.2%
For this event I have…
Efrain Escudero +180: $3.00 to win $5.40 – If you had told me a few months ago that I would be betting on Efrain Escudero to win a UFC fight in 2014, I wouldn’t have believed you. But I like the way he matches up with Leonardo Santos. Santos certainly has a huge advantage on the ground and is very likely to submit Escudero if he can land a takedown. The problem is that Santos doesn’t have good takedowns; he’s only landed one takedown in two UFC fights so far. Santos also doesn’t have very good striking. I think there’s a decent chance that Escudero can keep this fight standing and win a decision with striking volume, perhaps even winning by TKO.
Paulo Thiago +160: $3.00 to win $4.80 – Everybody hates Paulo Thiago. I get it. He’s 2-6 in his last eight fights, so he’s lucky to still be in the UFC. Thiago certainly deserves a pink slip if he loses to Sean Spencer, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Thiago won’t match Spencer’s striking output, but I think he should be able to land takedowns, control Spencer on the ground, and potentially win by submission. Fighting in his home country of Brazil is just a bonus. I think Thiago is being very underrated here.
“Leans” for this event include Andrei Arlovski +365 (I think +300 is a fair price), Santiago Ponzinibbio at even money, Russell Doane +265, Godofredo Pepey -150, and George Sullivan +155.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!