Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs. Arlovski Degenerate Gambler’s Corner


Last Event: 7-2 (77.8%)

Year To Date: 225-118 (65.6%)

Last week was good for my picks as both Joe Lauzon and Matt Mitrione won as underdogs.


Last Event: +$1.95

Current Bankroll: $77.35

Total Investment: $268.22

Total Return: $27.35

Return On Investment: 10.2%

For this event I have…

Efrain Escudero +180: $3.00 to win $5.40 – If you had told me a few months ago that I would be betting on Efrain Escudero to win a UFC fight in 2014, I wouldn’t have believed you. But I like the way he matches up with Leonardo Santos. Santos certainly has a huge advantage on the ground and is very likely to submit Escudero if he can land a takedown. The problem is that Santos doesn’t have good takedowns; he’s only landed one takedown in two UFC fights so far. Santos also doesn’t have very good striking. I think there’s a decent chance that Escudero can keep this fight standing and win a decision with striking volume, perhaps even winning by TKO.

Paulo Thiago +160: $3.00 to win $4.80 – Everybody hates Paulo Thiago. I get it. He’s 2-6 in his last eight fights, so he’s lucky to still be in the UFC. Thiago certainly deserves a pink slip if he loses to Sean Spencer, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Thiago won’t match Spencer’s striking output, but I think he should be able to land takedowns, control Spencer on the ground, and potentially win by submission. Fighting in his home country of Brazil is just a bonus. I think Thiago is being very underrated here.

“Leans” for this event include Andrei Arlovski +365 (I think +300 is a fair price), Santiago Ponzinibbio at even money, Russell Doane +265, Godofredo Pepey -150, and George Sullivan +155.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


6 responses to “UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs. Arlovski Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. szady September 13, 2014 at 10:15 pm

    I had Arlovski but for only 1 unit.

  2. Howard Morton September 14, 2014 at 3:28 am

    -8.25 units for me. Still up though aftet my great run. Good thing there is another UFC next week.

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