Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Japan Degenerate Gambler’s Corner


Last Event: 5-6 (45.5%)

Year To Date: 230-124 (65.0%)

Obviously my picks weren’t great last time. Santiago Ponzinibbio was a good call, but I was flat wrong on Efrain Escudero, Larissa Pacheco, Paulo Thiago, and Johnny Bedford.


Last Event: -$6.00

Current Bankroll: $76.10

Total Investment: $289.22

Total Return: $26.10

Return On Investment: 9.0%

(This includes my NFL degenerate gambling, FYI.)

My UFC betting picks have been cold for the better part of two months now. Because of this, for this card I decided to handicap every fight before looking at the betting lines.

The number I came up with for each fight was almost an exact match for the actual betting lines for almost every fight on the card. For example, the number I came up with for Alex Caceres vs. Masanori Kanehara was Caceres -250… and sure enough, Caceres opened at -245. I’m not saying this to brag, I’m just pointing out that there weren’t many fights I saw much betting value on. The bets I came up with were not necessarily the ones you might expect…

For this event I have…

Jon Delos Reyes +475: $3.00 to win $14.25 – I get it. Kyoji Horiguchi is awesome, Reyes sucks, etc etc. Reyes’s struggles are on the ground; he’s too easy to submit. But Horiguchi isn’t really a submission fighter. Horiguchi is a striker who leaves openings for his opponent to counter, and Reyes just happens to have really good punching power. I think the potential is there for Reyes to win by “shock” KO. At +475 I’m willing to find out if this happens.

Katsunori Kikuno -150: $4.50 to win $3.00 – I’m not really betting on Katsunori Kikuno vs. Sam Sicilia. If the best version of Kikuno shows up, then he should beat Sicilia and make -150 look like a steal. I’m betting on Kikuno vs. Kikuno. In other words, I’m betting that Kikuno is going to take this fight seriously and fight to the best of his abilities instead of letting Sicilia punch him in the face. If Kikuno’s hands are by his knees the moment the fight starts, I’m going to be in a bad mood very quickly.

Those are my only two bets for now. “Leans” include:

Rin Nakai +235: Again, I can’t shake the feeling that the UFC knows something we don’t. Nakai really is a pretty strong grappler – not the most technically sound, but she’s excellent at landing takedowns and maintaining position. I think there’s upset potential, but Nakai is too unproven for me to put a bet down.

Mark Hunt -110: All the “sharp” people I know think Roy Nelson wins this fight. I’m not about to be the one dissenter standing in their way with a bet on the other side, but for crying out loud… Hunt really is the better fighter of the two. Of course, that’s not going to matter much if Hunt wakes up with a flashlight in his face.

Takanori Gomi +450: I’m the conductor of the Myles Jury hype train, so no, I’m not going to bet on Gomi. But goodness… Jury at -600? Seems like a bit much, especially with this fight being in Japan.

Kyung Ho Kang +145: FPR likes Kang for his grappling dominance. Judges hate Kang for his lack of effective offense on the ground. Michinori Tanaka is the more talented fighter of the two for sure, but Kang might be well equipped to take advantage of Tanaka’s mistakes.

Johnny Case +140: I’m not a Kazuki Tokudome fan, but on top of that, Case opened as the favorite at -125. What I saw from Case on tape was uninspiring, so I can’t bring myself to bet. But if this line keeps getting better, eventually it’s just too much value to pass on.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


5 responses to “UFC Fight Night Japan Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. szady September 19, 2014 at 10:20 am

    I’m sad because Walsh isn’t in your “leans”, but I understand it. The most possible outcome is quicks submission by Kunimoto, but I like Richard’s chances when the fight stays standing. I also like his clinch game when he uses his knees and elbows. He is well conditioned and much faster than Kunimoto. I like his chances when the fight goes the distance. It might be a little bit stupid but I can’t trust a guy who 2 years ago was defeated by Takenori Sato. 😀

    • David Williams September 19, 2014 at 10:22 am

      I get that. The number I wrote down for this fight was Kunimoto -180… so Walsh +200 just isn’t enough value for me, even for a “lean.” I do like Walsh’s potential as a fighter, he just has to prove to me that his submission defense has tightened up before I’m willing to bet him against a submission guy.

  2. Howard Morton September 19, 2014 at 2:45 pm

    I added a bet. My bets are in the comments section of the previous post.

    Good luck Williams!

    Good luck everyone else!

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