Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

NFL Degenerate Gambling – Week 5

With my degenerate gambling bankroll shrinking rapidly, it’s clear that I need to change what I’m doing. For the first time in a long time, my bankroll has fallen below its original level of $50.00… currently sitting at $49.57.

One of the changes I’m making is: no more degenerate gambling on every NFL game. Instead I’m moving to a method based on the Kelly criterion, using the 1/4 Kelly method to determine bet sizing.

Instead of betting the same amount on every game, I’m betting a different amount on a few games. We’ll see how well it works.

Here’s what I have for this week:

  • New England Patriots +105: $4.43 to win $4.65
  • Denver Broncos -335: $4.42 to win $1.32
  • Atlanta Falcons +175: $2.59 to win $4.53
  • Indianapolis Colts -185: $2.24 to win $1.21
  • San Diego Chargers -300: $1.71 to win $0.57

I’ll be back later tonight for the TUF recap and tomorrow for some UFC commentary.

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3 responses to “NFL Degenerate Gambling – Week 5

  1. Mirko October 1, 2014 at 11:36 pm

    I though using similar strategy but it requires a lot of money. Basically you bet on every underdog until you win. So you put 1 unit on first one, 2 units on second, 4 units on third etc. until you win and then you stop or reset it.

    • David Williams October 1, 2014 at 11:41 pm

      Yes, that’s known as the “martingale” strategy. It’s great unless you go on a long losing streak that wipes out your whole bankroll. It’s easy to think a nightmare losing streak of 10 in a row won’t happen, but it does.

  2. Howard Morton October 2, 2014 at 4:06 am

    I tried it once with like 20 bets to 40 to 60 just as an experiment and i never lost more than 4 in a row. I stopped, not sure why, i guess it was not my sytle.

    The system works the best on NBA first quarters and MLB first inning because you win or lose quick and if you time it right you can do 4 or 5 bets a night.

    For example, 4,430,5,530,600,630,7,730 pm start times for NBA some nights. So that is 8 chances for profit. If you double your bet everytime it will quickly become stressful.

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