Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Fighter Rating Update

After the success I had with my degenerate gambling this past weekend, I’ve been inspired enough to go into my new fight prediction model and try to fine-tune it. I took the top 20 heavyweights in FPR and gave each of them a full set of ratings. I then looked at every possible matchup among those heavyweights and estimated each fighter’s chances of winning in each matchup.

This is a “demo” of what fighter ratings might look like using this system. In this particular case, the rating of the fighter represents the average winning percentage of that fighter against the other 19 heavyweights.

I’m pretty happy with the results:

Rank Fighter Rating
 1 Cain Velasquez 88.7
 2 Junior Dos Santos 80.9
 3 Fabricio Werdum 61.1
 4 Alistair Overeem 57.6
 5 Antonio Silva 57.3
 6 Stipe Miocic 56.6
 7 Mark Hunt 55.9
 8 Travis Browne 54.4
 9 Josh Barnett 53.1
 10 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 48.6
 11 Frank Mir 48.1
 12 Roy Nelson 46.2
 13 Brendan Schaub 44.6
 14 Gabriel Gonzaga 43.9
 15 Andrei Arlovski 43.1
 16 Ben Rothwell 42.2
 17 Matt Mitrione 39.6
 18 Fabio Maldonado 27.5
 19 Shawn Jordan 26.8
 20 Stefan Struve 25.0

Yes, Maldonado is listed at heavyweight, because his last fight was in that weight class – if it could be called a “fight.”

As for specific fights that are coming up:

  • Cain Velasquez 86.7%, Fabricio Werdum 13.3%
  • Travis Browne 61.3%, Brendan Schaub 38.7%
  • Junior Dos Santos 84.9%, Stipe Miocic 15.1%
  • Alistair Overeem 73.8%, Stefan Struve 26.2%
  • Gabriel Gonzaga 55.6%, Matt Mitrione 44.4%

What I like the most is that this model adjusts based on the way two specific fighters match up. For example, Junior Dos Santos is listed as having a worse chance of beating Matt Mitrione than he has of beating Stipe Miocic, despite Miocic being the much better fighter overall. The reason is because Dos Santos is expected to out-point both fighters, but Mitrione has better KO power than Miocic, and therefore an increased chance of winning by knockout. (Of course, both Mitrione and Miocic would be huge underdogs against Dos Santos).

I’ll keep you updated as I continue to update and refine this system.


One response to “Fighter Rating Update

  1. Howard Morton October 8, 2014 at 3:15 am

    Overeem number 4 is disgraceful.

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