UFC 179 Degenerate Gambler’s Corner
October 23, 2014
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Picks I didn’t include in my predictions post include: Neil Magny over William Macario, Yan Cabral over Naoyuki Kotani, Wilson Reis over Scott Jorgensen, Andre Fili over Felipe Arantes, Gilbert Burns over Christos Giagos, and Tony Martin over Fabricio Camoes.
YEAR TO DATE
Last Events: 18-5 (78.3%)
Year To Date: 265-135 (66.3%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$1.24
Current Bankroll: $57.34
Total MMA Investment: $267.35
Total MMA Return: $17.13
Return on Investment: 6.4%
For this event I have…
Chad Mendes +175: $0.70 to win $1.22 – I got greedy and hoped that Mendes would hit a price of +220 or better. No such luck. I think Mendes is going to make this fight very difficult for a potentially worn and weary Jose Aldo. Mendes is not the better striker and will have a tough time landing takedowns, but could potentially clinch and grind out a decision against Aldo, with an outside chance of landing a haymaker and winning by knockout. I do consider Aldo the favorite but see slight value on Mendes here.
Sadly, that’s all I have this time. Phil Davis is close to where I would place a bet, but I want him to be at +300 or better and he’s not quite there yet. I’m also curious about Carlos Diego Ferreira -220, William Macario +180, Andre Fili -130, and Tony Martin -105, but I haven’t done enough research on those fights to justify putting bets down. For now, I’m going to play it safe and keep Mendes as my only bet.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!