PICKS TO DATE
Last Weekend: 13-8 (61.9%)
Year To Date: 287-145 (66.4%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Weekend: -$6.70
Current Bankroll: $33.97
Total MMA Investment: $274.75
Total MMA Return: $9.73
Return On Investment: 3.5%
The problem with any model is the old saying… garbage in, garbage out. I miscalculated on Ross Pearson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua because their opponents – Al Iaquinta and Ovince St-Preux – hadn’t fought particularly strong opponents. The ratings I gave Iaquinta and St-Preux for opponent quality were too low, and I ended up paying for it with my money.
This time around, I think I’ve done a better job of properly rating the fighters set to compete tomorrow night.
For this event I have…
Mark Hunt +348: $3.01 to win $10.47 – I don’t expect Hunt to beat Fabricio Werdum on short notice and in high altitude, but I do think Hunt should have the advantage as long as the fight is standing. Hunt is a serious threat to knock Werdum out, but Werdum isn’t much of a threat to knock Hunt out.
Jake Ellenberger +170: $4.56 to win $7.75 – It’s hard to trust Ellenberger at this point, but he still hits like a ton of bricks and can wrestle on top of it. Kelvin Gastelum is the better volume striker but Ellenberger hits harder and should be able to land at least a couple takedowns. This fight is competitive but I think the wrong man is the betting favorite.
Leonardo Morales +150: $0.83 to win $1.24 – I think the fight between Morales and Yair Rodriguez will turn out to be a back-and-forth striking match, and a coin flip in terms of who wins. If I’m right, that means there’s some value on Morales at +150, so I’m willing to put down a small bet to find out.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!