Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Degenerate Gambler’s Corner: UFC 180

PICKS TO DATE

Last Weekend: 13-8 (61.9%)

Year To Date: 287-145 (66.4%)

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Weekend: -$6.70

Current Bankroll: $33.97

Total MMA Investment: $274.75

Total MMA Return: $9.73

Return On Investment: 3.5%

The problem with any model is the old saying… garbage in, garbage out. I miscalculated on Ross Pearson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua because their opponents – Al Iaquinta and Ovince St-Preux – hadn’t fought particularly strong opponents. The ratings I gave Iaquinta and St-Preux for opponent quality were too low, and I ended up paying for it with my money.

This time around, I think I’ve done a better job of properly rating the fighters set to compete tomorrow night.

For this event I have…

Mark Hunt +348: $3.01 to win $10.47 – I don’t expect Hunt to beat Fabricio Werdum on short notice and in high altitude, but I do think Hunt should have the advantage as long as the fight is standing. Hunt is a serious threat to knock Werdum out, but Werdum isn’t much of a threat to knock Hunt out.

Jake Ellenberger +170: $4.56 to win $7.75 – It’s hard to trust Ellenberger at this point, but he still hits like a ton of bricks and can wrestle on top of it. Kelvin Gastelum is the better volume striker but Ellenberger hits harder and should be able to land at least a couple takedowns. This fight is competitive but I think the wrong man is the betting favorite.

Leonardo Morales +150: $0.83 to win $1.24 – I think the fight between Morales and Yair Rodriguez will turn out to be a back-and-forth striking match, and a coin flip in terms of who wins. If I’m right, that means there’s some value on Morales at +150, so I’m willing to put down a small bet to find out.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

Advertisements

3 responses to “Degenerate Gambler’s Corner: UFC 180

  1. szady November 15, 2014 at 3:34 am

    Only one bet for this weekend:
    2 units: Jake Ellenberger at +175

    Good luck David, as always!

  2. Mirko November 16, 2014 at 4:54 am

    Interesting thing happened to me. I put:
    1 unit Nam Phan
    1 unit Guillard
    2 units Chandler
    2 units Ellenberger
    3.5 units on Lamas which was accidental because I wanted to put money on Bermudez and it turned out I made 0.35 units profit thanks to that.
    Basically all my choices were wrong 🙂

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: