Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 182 – Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

I need to say a few things before I get into the degenerate gambling for tomorrow’s UFC 182:

  • I’m still testing my logistic regression model. I don’t know if it will beat the betting public long-term or not. So far, the test says it will, but the test is only one-third of the way complete.
  • I’m going back to using an imaginary betting bankroll, which will begin at $100. I don’t really feel like depositing money in an offshore account so I’m not going to. As always, this feature is for fun and not meant for serious gambling.
  • My model currently has a tendency to dramatically inflate the chances of fighters who are very highly ranked. Keep that in mind when you see the number for Jon Jones below. I’m looking into ways of fixing this and hopefully will find a solution soon.

With these caveats out of the way, here is what my model says about each fighter’s likelihood of winning:

Favorite Win Pct. Underdog Win Pct.
 Jon Jones 86.6% Daniel Cormier 13.4%
 Myles Jury 52.7% Donald Cerrone 47.3%
 Nate Marquardt 62.3% Brad Tavares 37.7%
 Kyoji Horiguchi 95.6% Louis Gaudinot 4.4%
 Hector Lombard 75.8% Josh Burkman 24.2%
 Danny Castillo 77.7% Paul Felder 22.3%
 Cody Garbrandt 51.1% Marcus Brimage 48.9%
 Shawn Jordan 64.8% Jared Cannonier 35.2%
 Evan Dunham 74.7% Rodrigo Damm 25.3%
 Omari Akhmedov 54.7% Mats Nilsson 45.3%
 Alexis Dufresne 67.8% Marion Reneau 32.2%


Starting Bankroll: $100.00

For this event I have…

Jon Jones -160: $6.07 to win $3.79 – I’ve seen opinions all over the map on this one, from people saying Jones is dramatically undervalued to others saying Cormier will grind him to dust. I side with the Jones is undervalued crowd but I definitely get why people have faith in Cormier.

Kyoji Horiguchi -705: $5.92 to win $0.84 – If Horiguchi loses to Gaudinot, then that will be the most surprised I’ve been by a UFC result in quite a while.

Danny Castillo -220: $1.30 to win $0.59 – It seems to me like Castillo will be able to impose his takedown game on Paul Felder pretty easily, but perhaps Felder has improved his takedown defense since beating Jason Saggo.

Cody Garbrandt +160: $0.84 to win $1.34 – Along with being favored by my model from a statistical standpoint, Garbrandt looked really good on tape to me, and prospect gurus are hyping him as a blue-chip guy. This seems like pretty good value, all things considered.

Myles Jury +130: $0.63 to win $0.82 – You knew this was coming. I missed out when Jury was +170 or better so that’s why this is my smallest bet.

EDIT: I have also chosen a daily fantasy team for UFC 182 at Draft Kings. My choices are Kyoji Horiguchi, Danny Castillo, Myles Jury, Cody Garbrandt, and Brad Tavares.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


One response to “UFC 182 – Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. r.mattioli January 3, 2015 at 3:16 pm

    nice to see you came back from sabbatical….

    I`m a big admirer of Cormier’s…he`s been utterly dominant…..still,i see no one on his resume that even remotely resembles the type of skillset jones brings to the table….cormier `s been the quicker(something he exploited big time as a heavyweight) more explosive guy in every one of his fights….that`s why he dominated at heavyweight….

    here,he`s fighting a style he`s never (even remotely) been in against…and I doubt he`s the quicker guy here…. he`ll need to use his strength advantage and be the bully here…but closing distance vs jones is fraught with danger…

    that said,with guys at this level(imo,thee two best mma fighters drawing breath and,yes,i think cormier is better than velasquez) ),I don`t have a clue how this thing plays out…the fact that gustafsson gave jones a fit really means nothing as he`s nothing like cormier.physically or style-wise….

    I`m a bystander this weekend…


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