Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Boston: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

PICKS TO DATE

Last Event: 7-4 (63.6%)

Year To Date: 7-4 (63.6%)

STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
Conor McGregor 80.2% Dennis Siver 19.8%
Benson Henderson 52.1% Donald Cerrone 47.9%
Uriah Hall 74.3% Ron Stallings 25.7%
Gleison Tibau 54.3% Norman Parke 45.7%
Cathal Pendred 65.6% Sean Spencer 34.4%
John Howard 50.2% Lorenz Larkin 49.8%
Zhang Lipeng 50.8% Chris Wade 49.2%
Patrick Holohan 77.1% Shane Howell 22.9%
Johnny Case 61.8% Frankie Perez 38.2%
Charles Rosa 55.1% Sean Soriano 44.9%
Sean O’Connell 56.3% Matt Van Buren 43.7%
Joby Sanchez 68.4% Tateki Matsuda 31.6%

I disagree with the model on the Lipeng-Wade fight. I believe the model is overrating Lipeng because he’s produced decent statistics against a level of competition that normally would not exist in the UFC (Wang Sai, Brendan O’Reilly). I believe Wade is truly the favorite but I will be including Lipeng in my degenerate gambling:

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Starting Bankroll: $100.00

Current Bankroll: $104.04

Total Investment: $14.76

Total Profit: $4.04

Return On Investment: 27.4%

UFC 182 was a nice debut for my new statistical model. The two biggest bets of the card were Jon Jones and Kyoji Horiguchi, both of whom ended up winning decisions. The model also got Cody Garbrandt +160 correctly but lost on Danny Castillo and Myles Jury.

For this event I have…

Cathal Pendred +145: $7.60 to win $11.02

Zhang Lipeng +450: $6.99 to win $31.46

Joby Sanchez -165: $2.05 to win $1.24

John Howard +140: $1.81 to win $2.53

Ron Stallings +660: $1.78 to win $11.75

Patrick Holohan -275: $1.73 to win $0.63

Matt Van Buren +185: $1.61 to win $2.98

Dennis Siver +900: $1.29 to win $11.61

This is where I grit my teeth and tell my inanimate statistical model that “you better be right.” The potential success of this event is largely reliant on four underdogs: Pendred, Lipeng, Stallings, and Siver. If any one of them wins then I will only lose a slight amount of my bankroll at worst. If two or more of them win it will be time to back up a Brinks truck (figuratively speaking, of course). There are also smaller bets on Joby Sanchez, John Howard, Patrick Holohan, and Matt Van Buren. It might seem silly to have these smaller bets when they won’t determine whether or not I make money, but any bet with theoretical positive value is a bet worth making.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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