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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
PICKS TO DATE
Last Event: 7-4 (63.6%)
Year To Date: 7-4 (63.6%)
STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Conor McGregor||80.2%||Dennis Siver||19.8%|
|Benson Henderson||52.1%||Donald Cerrone||47.9%|
|Uriah Hall||74.3%||Ron Stallings||25.7%|
|Gleison Tibau||54.3%||Norman Parke||45.7%|
|Cathal Pendred||65.6%||Sean Spencer||34.4%|
|John Howard||50.2%||Lorenz Larkin||49.8%|
|Zhang Lipeng||50.8%||Chris Wade||49.2%|
|Patrick Holohan||77.1%||Shane Howell||22.9%|
|Johnny Case||61.8%||Frankie Perez||38.2%|
|Charles Rosa||55.1%||Sean Soriano||44.9%|
|Sean O’Connell||56.3%||Matt Van Buren||43.7%|
|Joby Sanchez||68.4%||Tateki Matsuda||31.6%|
I disagree with the model on the Lipeng-Wade fight. I believe the model is overrating Lipeng because he’s produced decent statistics against a level of competition that normally would not exist in the UFC (Wang Sai, Brendan O’Reilly). I believe Wade is truly the favorite but I will be including Lipeng in my degenerate gambling:
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Starting Bankroll: $100.00
Current Bankroll: $104.04
Total Investment: $14.76
Total Profit: $4.04
Return On Investment: 27.4%
UFC 182 was a nice debut for my new statistical model. The two biggest bets of the card were Jon Jones and Kyoji Horiguchi, both of whom ended up winning decisions. The model also got Cody Garbrandt +160 correctly but lost on Danny Castillo and Myles Jury.
For this event I have…
Cathal Pendred +145: $7.60 to win $11.02
Zhang Lipeng +450: $6.99 to win $31.46
Joby Sanchez -165: $2.05 to win $1.24
John Howard +140: $1.81 to win $2.53
Ron Stallings +660: $1.78 to win $11.75
Patrick Holohan -275: $1.73 to win $0.63
Matt Van Buren +185: $1.61 to win $2.98
Dennis Siver +900: $1.29 to win $11.61
This is where I grit my teeth and tell my inanimate statistical model that “you better be right.” The potential success of this event is largely reliant on four underdogs: Pendred, Lipeng, Stallings, and Siver. If any one of them wins then I will only lose a slight amount of my bankroll at worst. If two or more of them win it will be time to back up a Brinks truck (figuratively speaking, of course). There are also smaller bets on Joby Sanchez, John Howard, Patrick Holohan, and Matt Van Buren. It might seem silly to have these smaller bets when they won’t determine whether or not I make money, but any bet with theoretical positive value is a bet worth making.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!