PICKS TO DATE
Last Event: 10-2 (83.3%)
Picks For Year: 17-6 (73.9%)
I’ll admit right away that I got lucky with Cathal Pendred last week, both for straight picks and for degenerate gambling. I was pretty sure Pendred had lost all three rounds of his fight to Sean Spencer, but the judges disagreed in a big way.
STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Anthony Johnson
| Gegard Mousasi
| Phil Davis
| Sam Sicilia
| Nico Musoke
| Kenny Robertson
| Andy Ogle
| Nikita Krylov
| Mairbek Taisumov
| Mirsad Bektic
| Konstantin Erokhin
| Chris Beal
Last week, I made it clear that I was picking Chris Wade to beat Zhang Lipeng despite my model slightly favoring Lipeng. This week, I’m doing the same thing for the main event between Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson. I think there are factors working in Gustafsson’s favor that the model doesn’t account for.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: -$0.59
Starting Bankroll: $100.00
Current Bankroll: $103.45
Total Investment: $39.62
Return On Investment: 8.7%
Again, I got lucky with Cathal Pendred, as his dubious decision win prevented my degenerate gambling from being really disastrous last week. Then again, there are going to be bad decisions that end up going both ways, so there’s no use in making too big a deal out of it. Luck will even out over time.
For this event I have…
Anthony Johnson +260: $5.72 to win $14.87
Kenny Robertson +155: $2.91 to win $4.51
Anthony Christodoulou +660: $2.04 to win $13.46
Nikita Krylov -125: $1.94 to win $1.55
Paul Redmond +540: $1.59 to win $8.59
Dan Henderson +450: $1.44 to win $6.48
Viktor Pesta +320: $1.32 to win $4.22
Sam Sicilia +110: $0.78 to win $0.86
Nico Musoke +125: $0.74 to win $0.93
Makwan Amirhani +140: $0.59 to win $0.83
That’s right, a whopping ten bets for this event. The biggest bet is on Rumble, as my degenerate gambling is strictly based on my statistical model, whether I subjectively agree with it or not. At the least, I feel like Rumble isn’t a bad underdog to go with, given his incredible knockout power and overall striking ability.
The other biggest bets are Kenny Robertson, who has moved from -125 to +155, Anthony Christodoulou, who has moved from +335 to +660, and Nikita Krylov, who I believe has what it takes to beat Stanislav Nedkov.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!