Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC on Fox 14: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

PICKS TO DATE

Last Event: 10-2 (83.3%)

Picks For Year: 17-6 (73.9%)

I’ll admit right away that I got lucky with Cathal Pendred last week, both for straight picks and for degenerate gambling. I was pretty sure Pendred had lost all three rounds of his fight to Sean Spencer, but the judges disagreed in a big way.

STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Anthony Johnson 62.1% Alexander Gustafsson 37.9%
 Gegard Mousasi 66.6% Dan Henderson 33.4%
 Phil Davis 70.0% Ryan Bader 30.0%
 Sam Sicilia 53.4% Akira Corassani 46.6%
 Nico Musoke 50.3% Albert Tumenov 49.7%
 Kenny Robertson 58.4% Sultan Aliev 41.6%
 Andy Ogle 53.4% Makwan Amirkhani 46.6%
 Nikita Krylov 66.0% Stanislav Nedkov 34.0%
 Mairbek Taisumov 65.6% Anthony Christodoulou 34.4%
 Mirsad Bektic 67.4% Paul Redmond 32.6%
 Konstantin Erokhin 63.0% Viktor Pesta 37.0%
 Chris Beal 64.7% Neil Seery 35.3%

Last week, I made it clear that I was picking Chris Wade to beat Zhang Lipeng despite my model slightly favoring Lipeng. This week, I’m doing the same thing for the main event between Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson. I think there are factors working in Gustafsson’s favor that the model doesn’t account for.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: -$0.59

Starting Bankroll: $100.00

Current Bankroll: $103.45

Total Investment: $39.62

Profit/Loss: $3.45

Return On Investment: 8.7%

Again, I got lucky with Cathal Pendred, as his dubious decision win prevented my degenerate gambling from being really disastrous last week. Then again, there are going to be bad decisions that end up going both ways, so there’s no use in making too big a deal out of it. Luck will even out over time.

For this event I have…

Anthony Johnson +260: $5.72 to win $14.87

Kenny Robertson +155: $2.91 to win $4.51

Anthony Christodoulou +660: $2.04 to win $13.46

Nikita Krylov -125: $1.94 to win $1.55

Paul Redmond +540: $1.59 to win $8.59

Dan Henderson +450: $1.44 to win $6.48

Viktor Pesta +320: $1.32 to win $4.22

Sam Sicilia +110: $0.78 to win $0.86

Nico Musoke +125: $0.74 to win $0.93

Makwan Amirhani +140: $0.59 to win $0.83

That’s right, a whopping ten bets for this event. The biggest bet is on Rumble, as my degenerate gambling is strictly based on my statistical model, whether I subjectively agree with it or not. At the least, I feel like Rumble isn’t a bad underdog to go with, given his incredible knockout power and overall striking ability.

The other biggest bets are Kenny Robertson, who has moved from -125 to +155, Anthony Christodoulou, who has moved from +335 to +660, and Nikita Krylov, who I believe has what it takes to beat Stanislav Nedkov.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

Advertisements

5 responses to “UFC on Fox 14: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton January 24, 2015 at 2:44 am

    I understand the Johnson bet. I still think that Gustafsson wins, but there is value on Johnson.

  2. r.mattioli January 24, 2015 at 7:06 pm

    man,that was waaaayy too easy……somebody`s going to have to find a way to stop Johnson from just carelessly walking through them to throw bombs…….

    you can`t back up trying to keep him off with jabs and defensive kicks….he`s not using any defense whatsoever…he`s just disdainfully walking through his opponents` offense…

    I`m guessing it`ll be a grappler like cormier…..I believe cormier matches up better with Johnson than jones does….

    congrats to rumble pickers…..I`m in a bit of a slump…

    • David Williams January 24, 2015 at 7:45 pm

      Yeah, hats off to Rumble, who really put a hurting on Gustafsson there. I agree with you, guys like Cormier would probably be tougher matchups for him. Looking forward to Jones-Rumble now.

  3. Howard Morton January 26, 2015 at 4:54 am

    Johnson was definitely the right bet and he came through with a big TKO.

    I guess Conor McGregor is Europe’s best hope for a UFC champ.

  4. Nick January 26, 2015 at 6:59 am

    Whoa you did great. Congrats

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: