Last week: 6-6 (50.0%)
Year To Date: 23-12 (65.7%)
There were a bunch of upsets at last week’s UFC on Fox show, so going 6-6 in predictions isn’t as bad as it sounds. I correctly picked two of the upsets, taking both Kenny Robertson and Sam Sicilia to win outright.
UFC 183 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Anderson Silva
| Tyron Woodley
| Al Iaquinta
| Thales Leites
| Jordan Mein
| Sara McMann
| Derek Brunson
| John Lineker
| Rafael Natal
| Jimy Hettes
| Ildemar Alcantara
| Thiago Santos
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last week: +$21.03
Starting Bankroll: $100.00
Current Bankroll: $124.48
Total Investment: $58.69
Total Profit: $24.48
Return On Investment: 41.7%
Last week’s event was huge for my degenerate gambling, mostly thanks to Anthony Johnson (+260) rumbling his way to a first-round TKO against Alexander Gustafsson. The other big wins were on +155 Kenny Robertson and +320 Viktor Pesta. When it’s a good night for underdogs, it’s probably going to be a good night for my gambling.
For this event I have…
Jordan Mein -140: $3.81 to win $2.72
Al Iaquinta -190: $2.67 to win $1.41
John Lineker +190: $2.06 to win $3.91
Ed Herman +425: $1.86 to win $7.91
Tim Boetsch +370: $1.30 to win $4.81
Jimy Hettes +150: $0.93 to win $1.40
Rafael Natal -175: $0.87 to win $0.50
Nick Diaz +375: $0.74 to win $2.78
Tyron Woodley +100: $0.60 to win $0.60
Miesha Tate +175: $0.51 to win $0.89
The biggest risks are on favorites Jordan Mein and Al Iaquinta, who represent the young rising talent set to earn key victories over older veterans Thiago Alves and Joe Lauzon. My model also identifies value on three sizable underdogs in John Lineker, Ed Herman, and Tim Boetsch. Overall, the risk amounts are a bit subdued compared to the last two events, but I’m OK with that.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!