Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 183: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last week: 6-6 (50.0%)

Year To Date: 23-12 (65.7%)

There were a bunch of upsets at last week’s UFC on Fox show, so going 6-6 in predictions isn’t as bad as it sounds. I correctly picked two of the upsets, taking both Kenny Robertson and Sam Sicilia to win outright.

UFC 183 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Anderson Silva 66.9% Nick Diaz 33.1%
 Tyron Woodley 56.4% Kelvin Gastelum 43.6%
 Al Iaquinta 79.1% Joe Lauzon 20.9%
 Thales Leites 59.8% Tim Boetsch 40.2%
 Jordan Mein 78.4% Thiago Alves 21.6%
 Sara McMann 56.6% Miesha Tate 43.4%
 Derek Brunson 55.7% Ed Herman 44.3%
 John Lineker 56.4% Ian McCall 43.6%
 Rafael Natal 70.0% Tom Watson 30.0%
 Jimy Hettes 51.1% Diego Brandao 48.9%
 Ildemar Alcantara 66.9% Richardson Moreira 33.1%
 Thiago Santos 61.1% Andy Enz 38.9%

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last week: +$21.03

Starting Bankroll: $100.00

Current Bankroll: $124.48

Total Investment: $58.69

Total Profit: $24.48

Return On Investment: 41.7%

Last week’s event was huge for my degenerate gambling, mostly thanks to Anthony Johnson (+260) rumbling his way to a first-round TKO against Alexander Gustafsson. The other big wins were on +155 Kenny Robertson and +320 Viktor Pesta. When it’s a good night for underdogs, it’s probably going to be a good night for my gambling.

For this event I have…

Jordan Mein -140: $3.81 to win $2.72

Al Iaquinta -190: $2.67 to win $1.41

John Lineker +190: $2.06 to win $3.91

Ed Herman +425: $1.86 to win $7.91

Tim Boetsch +370: $1.30 to win $4.81

Jimy Hettes +150: $0.93 to win $1.40

Rafael Natal -175: $0.87 to win $0.50

Nick Diaz +375: $0.74 to win $2.78

Tyron Woodley +100: $0.60 to win $0.60

Miesha Tate +175: $0.51 to win $0.89

The biggest risks are on favorites Jordan Mein and Al Iaquinta, who represent the young rising talent set to earn key victories over older veterans Thiago Alves and Joe Lauzon. My model also identifies value on three sizable underdogs in John Lineker, Ed Herman, and Tim Boetsch. Overall, the risk amounts are a bit subdued compared to the last two events, but I’m OK with that.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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9 responses to “UFC 183: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Mirko January 30, 2015 at 5:03 pm

    John Linker missed weight by four pounds. Kelvin Gastelum was off nine pounds.

    • David Williams January 31, 2015 at 2:23 am

      Yeah, I was traveling all day Friday, so I had to get this post out earlier than I normally would. Lineker missing weight is pretty much par for the course, but Gastelum missing by nine pounds? Sounds like he’s well on his way back to the middleweight division.

      • Mirko January 31, 2015 at 6:29 am

        He looked so ashamed on weight-ins. Woodley is now 1.62 and he was 2.20 few days ago. I’m not even sure I want to bet on him anymore. Nine pounds difference is a lot and Gastelum should now hold the advantage, only question is how will that affect him mentally.
        By the way I really like your new model and predictions, I think you are doing great. 🙂

      • David Williams January 31, 2015 at 11:39 am

        Thanks Mirko! And yeah, at the current price I don’t think there’s any value on Woodley anymore.

  2. r.mattioli February 1, 2015 at 9:02 pm

    just finished watching the super bowl…and I `m utterly shocked at how both coaches totally mismanaged the final minute or so….everybody`s commenting on carroll`s pass on 2nd and goal inside the one……but nobody(media in particular) is mentioning that when lynch was tackled on his first and goal run inside the pats` one(with 1:02 left on the clock) belichek failed to call timeout…it looked for all the world that any sane coach would use lynch to eventually bull it into the endzone with 3 downs to go inside the one….but belichek let the clock run down inside 30 seconds before carroll decided to throw into the endzone inside the one on second down…..it basically bailed him out…..

    we saw Wilson move the ball 80 yards to score a td to end the 1st half…belichek has one of the great qb`s of the modern era yet he didn`t call timeout to save as much clock for his qb as he could…..

    what are the chances that the pats hold for 3 downs inside the one?…..why not try and save as much time for your qb if the thing that is most likely to happen happens?…..

    I think belichek froze and nobody`s even mentioned it…

    • David Williams February 1, 2015 at 10:22 pm

      It’s the second time Belichick has bungled clock management in these playoffs! As I’m sure you’re well aware (being a Ravens fan), Belichick had Brady kneel down late in the fourth quarter of their win over Baltimore, apparently unaware that the Ravens had three timeouts and could force the Patriots to punt the ball back. It gave Flacco a chance to win it with a Hail Mary. As for the Super Bowl, you’re right, Belichick should have called timeout at a minute remaining and got very lucky that his DB intercepted Wilson at the goal line.

      • r.mattioli February 2, 2015 at 1:27 pm

        harbaugh also has game management brainfarts…hard to fathom…

        nobody will ever doubt belichek`s coaching bonafides…he`s one of the greats,without a doubt…the game plans vs the ravens and the seahawks utilizing the short passing game(slant/screen/rub/pick) in lieu of a running game was brilliant stuff……the way he uses Edelman and amendola(and previously welker) is amazing game planning …he gets the most out of their respective skillsets…the ravens traded up in the last draft to get a similar type of receiver in Michael campanaro…but I`m not sure the ravens are smart enough to game plan specific plays to get the most out of what he brings to the table…

        that said, not calling timeouts in that situation is baffling…even more baffling was the talking heads` reticence to mention it…maybe they didn`t want to dampen the celebration….but they are supposed to be “analysts” and it could have been disastrous…

        congrats,david….the young kid butler made a rod woodson,revis ,ed reed level play….if you watch it again it`s hard to believe the way that kid committed to jumping that route…..

        great seeing a young kid like that earn all the good things that are inevitably coming his way…

  3. Howard Morton February 2, 2015 at 1:59 am

    I hope Diaz sticks around and fights again. He is an interesting fighter.

    Lineker should not be allowed to fight at 125. He has missed weight several times. Gastelum should be given one more chance.

    The UFC has too many weight classes, especially at the bottom. 125, 135, 145 and 155 should be condensed into 2 or 3 weight classes or maybe just get rid of 125.

    I think the weight classes should be as follows:130, 145, 160, 175, 200, 220 and heavyweight(265). Most fans want to see the bigger fighters.

  4. MikeO February 2, 2015 at 11:07 am

    Props to your new statistical model for the Lineker-McCall fight. I thought McCall was gonna win that one easily with his takedowns, but seems that Lineker’s striking was the bigger advantage like you said.

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