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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
Last week: 9-2 (81.8%)
Year to date: 32-14 (69.6%)
A very good night for picks two weeks ago at UFC 183, as underdog picks John Lineker and Tyron Woodley (who closed as a substantial favorite) were both winners.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BROOMFIELD – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Benson Henderson||78.1%||Brandon Thatch||21.9%|
|Max Holloway||77.7%||Cole Miller||22.3%|
|Neil Magny||82.3%||Kiichi Kunimoto||17.7%|
|Patrick Walsh||64.0%||Daniel Kelly||36.0%|
|Kevin Lee||62.2%||Michel Prazeres||37.8%|
|Ray Borg||59.3%||Chris Kelades||40.7%|
|Nik Lentz||72.1%||Levan Makashvili||27.9%|
|Efrain Escudero||65.6%||Rodrigo Monstro||34.4%|
|Chas Skelly||51.0%||Jim Alers||49.0%|
|Zach Makovsky||54.7%||Tim Elliott||45.3%|
|Cody Pfister||54.9%||James Moontasri||45.1%|
The model likes three underdogs to win outright tomorrow: Benson Henderson, Efrain Escudero, and Cody Pfister. I’m personally picking Moontasri to win as I don’t think my model has the data it needs to go against the betting lines on that particular fight.
It also thinks Benson Henderson is not only the favorite against Brandon Thatch, but that the fight isn’t very close.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last week: -$0.40
Starting Bankroll: $100.00
Current Bankroll: $124.08
Total Investment: $74.04
Total Profit: $24.08
Return On Investment: 32.5%
The UFC 183 prelims were very good to me with wins by Lineker, Rafael Natal, and Miesha Tate. Unfortunately, the main card didn’t work out so well. Jordan Mein was stopped by a body shot after easily winning the first round against Thiago Alves, and Tim Boetsch got choked out after it looked like he was going to finish Thales Leites with strikes. The end result is a small loss of just 40 cents.
For this event I have…
Benson Henderson +110: $10.34 to win $11.37
Efrain Escudero +110: $3.89 to win $4.28
Cody Pfister +205: $3.64 to win $7.46
Chris Kelades +600: $3.31 to win $19.86
Jim Alers +205: $2.36 to win $4.84
Levan Makashvili +400: $0.81 to win $3.24
So here I am, making Henderson my biggest bet of the year so far. Again, if Thatch stops him in the first round, then my hat’s off to him. I just think it’s more likely that Henderson exposes some weaknesses in his game. My other three biggest bets are on Efrain Escudero, Cody Pfister, and Chris Kelades… which makes me a little nervous, to be honest with you.
EDIT: Just as I was publishing this post, the news broke that the fight between Nik Lentz and Levan Makashvili is off, so that bet can be disregarded.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!