Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Broomfield: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last week: 9-2 (81.8%)

Year to date: 32-14 (69.6%)

A very good night for picks two weeks ago at UFC 183, as underdog picks John Lineker and Tyron Woodley (who closed as a substantial favorite) were both winners.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT BROOMFIELD – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Benson Henderson 78.1% Brandon Thatch 21.9%
 Max Holloway 77.7% Cole Miller 22.3%
 Neil Magny 82.3% Kiichi Kunimoto 17.7%
 Patrick Walsh 64.0% Daniel Kelly 36.0%
 Kevin Lee 62.2% Michel Prazeres 37.8%
 Ray Borg 59.3% Chris Kelades 40.7%
 Nik Lentz 72.1% Levan Makashvili 27.9%
 Efrain Escudero 65.6% Rodrigo Monstro 34.4%
 Chas Skelly 51.0% Jim Alers 49.0%
 Zach Makovsky 54.7% Tim Elliott 45.3%
 Cody Pfister 54.9% James Moontasri 45.1%

The model likes three underdogs to win outright tomorrow: Benson Henderson, Efrain Escudero, and Cody Pfister. I’m personally picking Moontasri to win as I don’t think my model has the data it needs to go against the betting lines on that particular fight.

It also thinks Benson Henderson is not only the favorite against Brandon Thatch, but that the fight isn’t very close.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last week: -$0.40

Starting Bankroll: $100.00

Current Bankroll: $124.08

Total Investment: $74.04

Total Profit: $24.08

Return On Investment: 32.5%

The UFC 183 prelims were very good to me with wins by Lineker, Rafael Natal, and Miesha Tate. Unfortunately, the main card didn’t work out so well. Jordan Mein was stopped by a body shot after easily winning the first round against Thiago Alves, and Tim Boetsch got choked out after it looked like he was going to finish Thales Leites with strikes. The end result is a small loss of just 40 cents.

For this event I have…

Benson Henderson +110: $10.34 to win $11.37

Efrain Escudero +110: $3.89 to win $4.28

Cody Pfister +205: $3.64 to win $7.46

Chris Kelades +600: $3.31 to win $19.86

Jim Alers +205: $2.36 to win $4.84

Levan Makashvili +400: $0.81 to win $3.24

So here I am, making Henderson my biggest bet of the year so far. Again, if Thatch stops him in the first round, then my hat’s off to him. I just think it’s more likely that Henderson exposes some weaknesses in his game. My other three biggest bets are on Efrain Escudero, Cody Pfister, and Chris Kelades… which makes me a little nervous, to be honest with you.

EDIT: Just as I was publishing this post, the news broke that the fight between Nik Lentz and Levan Makashvili is off, so that bet can be disregarded.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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6 responses to “UFC Fight Night Broomfield: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton February 14, 2015 at 4:13 am

    5 unit 2 team parlay at odds of +194:
    Brandon Thatch and Kevin Lee.

    Good luck.

    P.S. I am super psyched about Gonzaga/Cro Cop 2.

    • David Williams February 14, 2015 at 1:15 pm

      If Cro Cop somehow finds a way to win that fight, do you think there will be a bunch of people saying “the old Cro Cop is back!”?

      • Howard Morton February 14, 2015 at 4:26 pm

        I thought they were bringing Cro Cop back so Lesnar could return against him and beat a “legend”.

        But to answer your question, no. At least I hope not.

  2. Mirko February 15, 2015 at 4:43 am

    Really nice call on Henderson.

  3. Nick February 17, 2015 at 11:57 am

    Amazing read on Henderson

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