Last event: 9-1 (90.0%)
Year to date: 41-15 (73.2%)
The only pick I got wrong last week was Patrick Walsh against Daniel Kelly – and let’s be honest, nobody won that fight.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT PORTO ALEGRE – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Antonio Silva
| Michael Johnson
| Cezar Ferreira
| Rustam Khabilov
| Iuri Alcantara
| Sean Strickland
| Jessica Andrade
| William Macario
| Tiago Trator
||Mike de la Torre
| Cody Gibson
||Douglas Silva de Andrade
| Ivan Jorge
The only underdog my model picks is Michael Johnson, who is estimated to be a very slight favorite at 52.5%. It’s quite reasonable to think that home-cage advantage (which is not factored into the model) is enough to make Barboza the actual favorite. My pick to win is Johnson but I see it as a coin flip fight.
Otherwise, my picks are all betting favorites but there are a number of fights I see as more competitive than the odds would suggest, especially Iuri Alcantara vs. Frankie Saenz.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$6.34
Starting bankroll: $100.00
Current bankroll: $130.42
Total investment: $97.58
Total profit: $30.42
Return on investment: 31.2%
Only two of my five bets last week were winners, but fortunately they were my two biggest bets in underdogs Benson Henderson and Efrain Escudero. Henderson’s performance was particularly inspiring as he weathered an early storm from the much bigger striker in Brandon Thatch, took the fight into deep waters, landed a couple takedowns, and finally finished Thatch by submission in the fourth round.
For this event I have…
Sean Strickland -185: $7.85 to win $4.24
Frankie Saenz +600: $5.16 to win $30.96
Sam Alvey +285: $4.62 to win $13.17
Michael Johnson +155: $2.78 to win $4.31
Josh Shockley +205: $2.36 to win $4.84
Adriano Martins +445: $1.27 to win $5.65
Jessica Andrade -235: $1.25 to win $0.53
Matt Dwyer +310: $0.98 to win $3.04
Even though my biggest risk is on Strickland, if I want to turn a profit here, I’ll need an underdog to win somewhere. Frankie Saenz winning would be enormous; I think it’s ridiculous that he’s priced at +600 against Iuri Alcantara, given what I believe to be a takedown advantage.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights