Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Porto Alegre: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 9-1 (90.0%)

Year to date: 41-15 (73.2%)

The only pick I got wrong last week was Patrick Walsh against Daniel Kelly – and let’s be honest, nobody won that fight.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT PORTO ALEGRE – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Antonio Silva 76.0% Frank Mir 24.0%
 Michael Johnson 52.5% Edson Barboza 47.5%
 Cezar Ferreira 50.5% Sam Alvey 49.5%
 Rustam Khabilov 72.4% Adriano Martins 27.6%
 Iuri Alcantara 56.4% Frankie Saenz 43.6%
 Sean Strickland 80.4% Santiago Ponzinibbio 19.6%
 Jessica Andrade 73.5% Marion Reneau 26.5%
 William Macario 68.8% Matt Dwyer 31.2%
 Tiago Trator 64.7% Mike de la Torre 35.3%
 Cody Gibson 67.3% Douglas Silva de Andrade 32.7%
 Ivan Jorge 54.3% Josh Shockley 45.7%

The only underdog my model picks is Michael Johnson, who is estimated to be a very slight favorite at 52.5%. It’s quite reasonable to think that home-cage advantage (which is not factored into the model) is enough to make Barboza the actual favorite. My pick to win is Johnson but I see it as a coin flip fight.

Otherwise, my picks are all betting favorites but there are a number of fights I see as more competitive than the odds would suggest, especially Iuri Alcantara vs. Frankie Saenz.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$6.34

Starting bankroll: $100.00

Current bankroll: $130.42

Total investment: $97.58

Total profit: $30.42

Return on investment: 31.2%

Only two of my five bets last week were winners, but fortunately they were my two biggest bets in underdogs Benson Henderson and Efrain Escudero. Henderson’s performance was particularly inspiring as he weathered an early storm from the much bigger striker in Brandon Thatch, took the fight into deep waters, landed a couple takedowns, and finally finished Thatch by submission in the fourth round.

For this event I have…

Sean Strickland -185: $7.85 to win $4.24

Frankie Saenz +600: $5.16 to win $30.96

Sam Alvey +285: $4.62 to win $13.17

Michael Johnson +155: $2.78 to win $4.31

Josh Shockley +205: $2.36 to win $4.84

Adriano Martins +445: $1.27 to win $5.65

Jessica Andrade -235: $1.25 to win $0.53

Matt Dwyer +310: $0.98 to win $3.04

Even though my biggest risk is on Strickland, if I want to turn a profit here, I’ll need an underdog to win somewhere. Frankie Saenz winning would be enormous; I think it’s ridiculous that he’s priced at +600 against Iuri Alcantara, given what I believe to be a takedown advantage.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights

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7 responses to “UFC Fight Night Porto Alegre: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. r.mattioli February 22, 2015 at 2:10 pm

    after watching both girls,i`m absolutely convinced that the female fight is going to be a barnburner…..Andrade is always uber-aggressive and reneau showed in her last fight that she comes to inflict damage….

    this one`s going to surprise some peeps….

  2. Mirko February 23, 2015 at 5:46 am

    What a night, Jorge was only favorite on card who won. Really great predictions, you are on fire.

  3. Howard Morton February 23, 2015 at 7:02 am

    “Degenerate Gambler” column was a big hit this weekend. Congrats.

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