Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 185: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last Event: 5-5 (50.0%)

Year To Date: 48-29 (62.3%)

It wasn’t that long ago that my picks were 41-15 on the year. The regression is real. My picks for UFC 184 weren’t terrific, although I was right about Roan Carneiro as a substantial underdog against Mark Munoz.

UFC 185 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Anthony Pettis 54.7% Rafael Dos Anjos 45.3%
 Carla Esparza 63.4% Joanna Jedrzejczyk 36.6%
 Johny Hendricks 78.9% Matt Brown 21.1%
 Alistair Overeem 77.7% Roy Nelson 22.3%
 Henry Cejudo 51.5% Chris Cariaso 48.5%
 Ross Pearson 74.9% Sam Stout 25.1%
 Elias Theodorou 73.4% Roger Narvaez 26.6%
 Daron Cruickshank 53.2% Beneil Dariush 46.8%
 Jared Rosholt 78.3% Josh Copeland 21.7%
 Sergio Pettis 75.1% Ryan Benoit 24.9%
 Joseph Duffy 63.5% Jake Lindsey 36.5%
 Larissa Pacheco 57.3% Germaine de Randamie 42.7%

There’s nothing surprising about the fighters my model thinks will win tomorrow. Every pick is the betting favorite except Daron Cruickshank, who was the favorite until he missed weight at 157.5 pounds. What’s more surprising is how competitive my model thinks a few key fights will be – most notably the main event between Anthony Pettis and Rafael Dos Anjos. The model also considers Henry Cejudo vs. Chris Cariaso a coin flip.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$2.57

Starting bankroll: $100.00

Current bankroll: $173.52

Total investment: $132.57

Total profit: $73.52

Return on investment: 55.5%

Carneiro was my only betting victory last week. My biggest risk was on Roman Salazar, who got eye poked to oblivion by “Kid” Yamamoto. My second biggest risk was on Raquel Pennington, who went to split decision as a 5-1 underdog against Holly Holm, so I have no regrets.

For this event I have…

Alistair Overeem -135: $12.74 to win $9.44

Chris Cariaso +535: $8.92 to win $47.72

Rafael Dos Anjos +425: $6.74 to win $28.65

Jake Lindsey +440: $3.98 to win $17.51

Carla Esparza -140: $1.94 to win $1.39

Daron Cruickshank +105: $1.33 to win $1.40

Ryan Benoit +415: $1.03 to win $4.27

For some reason the price on Overeem got much cheaper right after people saw him stand next to fat Roy Nelson. It won’t shock me if Nelson knocks him out – and we all know I’ve been burned by Nelson before – but I really think Overeem has a better chance to win than the odds reflect.

My overall success hinges on three big underdogs: Chris Cariaso, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Jake Lindsey. If any one of them wins then I’m in good shape.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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3 responses to “UFC 185: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton March 14, 2015 at 9:52 am

    5 units@ -140…….Overeem
    5 unit parlay@ -139….Cejudo/S. Pettis/Hendricks
    5 units@ -120……. Pacheco
    5 units@ -135……..Esparza

  2. r.mattioli March 15, 2015 at 10:02 am

    good night all the way around…..dos anjos handled pettis with relative ease…I think we know that all the “pettis is the new mayweather of mma” talk was hype….he can be bullied if you aren`t intimidated…if pettis wants to continue to be a top 5 guy at 155,he`ll have to work on his takedown defense and get much stronger,…

    you just can`t continually count on flashy knockouts and subs…you have to be prepared to win a long hard,physical fight…..

    and I was glad to see the polish girl win….I think she has a chance to establish a sort of “poor man`s rousey”type of reign in her weight class..great takedown defense and unlike pettis,she`s incredibly strong and physical….and she`s intimidating…I mentioned to a friend that she resembles “mrs baylock” from the original “the omen” movie( great british character actress billie whitelaw)…she has those severe,sharp,angular features….

    she`s a predator…as an old p.a.l. boxer and lifelong boxing fan I can tell you that her technique might be the sharpest of any mma fighter(man or woman)..the jab is like a pole(no pun intended) and her punches are straight and sharp….the combination that finally(and mecifully) ended esparza`s night was beautiful…

    I want to heap praise on joe duffy,but I`ll wait until the competition improves….

    may all our mma nights be this successful..

    • Howard Morton March 16, 2015 at 2:24 am

      Bad night for bets for me. Congrats to Williams on a big win with RDA.

      JJ might establish herself. I mean it’s not like the womens 115 class is that deep . 90% of fans probably can’t name more than 2-3 fighters in the division.

      Serious question: Does women’s MMA have a PED issue as bad as the men?

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