Last Event: 5-5 (50.0%)
Year To Date: 48-29 (62.3%)
It wasn’t that long ago that my picks were 41-15 on the year. The regression is real. My picks for UFC 184 weren’t terrific, although I was right about Roan Carneiro as a substantial underdog against Mark Munoz.
UFC 185 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Anthony Pettis
||Rafael Dos Anjos
| Carla Esparza
| Johny Hendricks
| Alistair Overeem
| Henry Cejudo
| Ross Pearson
| Elias Theodorou
| Daron Cruickshank
| Jared Rosholt
| Sergio Pettis
| Joseph Duffy
| Larissa Pacheco
||Germaine de Randamie
There’s nothing surprising about the fighters my model thinks will win tomorrow. Every pick is the betting favorite except Daron Cruickshank, who was the favorite until he missed weight at 157.5 pounds. What’s more surprising is how competitive my model thinks a few key fights will be – most notably the main event between Anthony Pettis and Rafael Dos Anjos. The model also considers Henry Cejudo vs. Chris Cariaso a coin flip.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: -$2.57
Starting bankroll: $100.00
Current bankroll: $173.52
Total investment: $132.57
Total profit: $73.52
Return on investment: 55.5%
Carneiro was my only betting victory last week. My biggest risk was on Roman Salazar, who got eye poked to oblivion by “Kid” Yamamoto. My second biggest risk was on Raquel Pennington, who went to split decision as a 5-1 underdog against Holly Holm, so I have no regrets.
For this event I have…
Alistair Overeem -135: $12.74 to win $9.44
Chris Cariaso +535: $8.92 to win $47.72
Rafael Dos Anjos +425: $6.74 to win $28.65
Jake Lindsey +440: $3.98 to win $17.51
Carla Esparza -140: $1.94 to win $1.39
Daron Cruickshank +105: $1.33 to win $1.40
Ryan Benoit +415: $1.03 to win $4.27
For some reason the price on Overeem got much cheaper right after people saw him stand next to fat Roy Nelson. It won’t shock me if Nelson knocks him out – and we all know I’ve been burned by Nelson before – but I really think Overeem has a better chance to win than the odds reflect.
My overall success hinges on three big underdogs: Chris Cariaso, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Jake Lindsey. If any one of them wins then I’m in good shape.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!