Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Rio: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 7-5 (58.3%)

Year to date: 55-34 (61.8%)

In four fights my model saw as coin flips, my picks were just 1-3, with Anthony Pettis, Daron Cruickshank, and Larissa Pacheco each losing (and losing decisively). That means a medicore effort with straight-up picks for UFC 185.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 62 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Demian Maia 53.3% Ryan LaFlare 46.7%
 Erick Silva 53.2% Josh Koscheck 46.8%
 Tony Martin 53.0% Leonardo Santos 47.0%
 Amanda Nunes 77.8% Shayna Baszler 22.2%
 Gilbert Burns 74.4% Alex Oliveira 25.6%
 Andre Fili 75.6% Godofredo Pepey 24.4%
 Francisco Trinaldo 52.6% Akbarh Arreola 47.4%
 Kevin Souza 54.4% Katsunori Kikuno 45.6%
 Leandro Silva 52.1% Drew Dober 47.9%
 Leonardo Mafra 51.9% Cain Carrizosa 48.1%
 Christos Giagos 87.1% Jorge de Oliveira 12.9%
 Bentley Syler 51.9% Fredy Serrano 48.1%

My model sees a lot of the fights being virtual coin flips, including the co-main event between Erick Silva and Josh Koscheck. On one hand, I think there’s a good chance people are underrating Koscheck off an unimpressive performance in a tough matchup against Jake Ellenberger. On the other hand, my model doesn’t have a variable that accounts for a fighter just wanting to finish his contract and take home a couple extra paychecks.

On the other end of the spectrum, Christos Giagos is a massive 87% favorite against Jorge de Oliveira despite being 0-1 in the UFC. The model sees advantages for Giagos in every statistical category except knockdowns. That’s because Oliveira got manhandled by Dhiego Lima for three rounds in his debut. Oliveira is also ten years older than Giagos and is completely unranked by Fight Matrix. That’s why that estimate is so lopsided.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$26.19

Starting bankroll: $100.00

Current bankroll: $199.71

Total investment: $169.25

Total profit: $99.71

Return on investment: 58.9%

Rafael Dos Anjos came through in a big way for me last week, as he was my third biggest risk as a +425 underdog. I also got a key win with Alistair Overeem’s decision victory against Roy Nelson; while Overeem easily landed more strikes than Nelson in the fight, there were some very tense moments, especially when Nelson knocked him down late in the third round.

For this event I have…

Christos Giagos -190: $21.95 to win $11.55

Josh Koscheck +435: $6.93 to win $30.15

Katsunori Kikuno +210: $3.22 to win $6.76

Akbarh Arreola +185: $3.07 to win $5.68

Demian Maia +125: $2.49 to win $3.11

Cain Carrizosa +145: $1.84 to win $2.67

Drew Dober +140: $1.57 to win $2.20

Alex Oliveira +480: $1.48 to win $7.10

Leonardo Santos +125: $0.63 to win $0.79

Against my better judgement, the biggest risk I’m taking so far this year is on none other than Christos Giagos. That’s followed by Koscheck, Katsunori Kikuno, and Akbarh Arreola. Needless to say, this could go really wrong… but hopefully not!

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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5 responses to “UFC Fight Night Rio: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Mirko March 21, 2015 at 8:02 am

    May I ask why such a huge bet on Giagos since you didn’t write anything on his fight?

    • David Williams March 21, 2015 at 1:21 pm

      Strictly because it’s recommended by my statistical model. All of my bets this year have been model recommendations, whether I agree with them or not. It’s worked pretty well so far!

  2. Mirko March 22, 2015 at 3:47 am

    Too bad I didn’t bet on anything, I was thinking of betting on Maia but I decided to pass this card since I didn’t like it.

  3. r.mattioli March 22, 2015 at 1:30 pm

    lemme play devil`s advocate on the dober fiasco…I agree that it looked like a grievous error…..but after watching the video again,seemed after dober `s head popped out,he sure looked like maybe he wasn`t in complete control of his faculties…..when his head came free,he laid there like a lox and looked like he very well may have gone out for a second…he didn`t really move and it took several seconds before he really moved at all..matter of fact he really didn’t move when the ref grabbed his arm…..he also was extremely passive in disputing what happened….personally,after a full camp and all the effort,i would have been bouncing off the walls…

    I had absolutely nothing on the fight and the decision`s been rendered…but watch it again…the position dober was in sure looked like it would have been extremely hard for his opponent to sub him(the way his head was turned)…still,he really looked almost unresponsive for seconds after his head popped free(which was after the stoppage)….

    I`m probably wrong,but,i believe in being objective…I think it`s possible that the ref`s action wasn`t as black and white as many seem to be indicating…

    look at it again and judge for yourself…

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