Last event: 7-5 (58.3%)
Year to date: 55-34 (61.8%)
In four fights my model saw as coin flips, my picks were just 1-3, with Anthony Pettis, Daron Cruickshank, and Larissa Pacheco each losing (and losing decisively). That means a medicore effort with straight-up picks for UFC 185.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 62 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Demian Maia
| Erick Silva
| Tony Martin
| Amanda Nunes
| Gilbert Burns
| Andre Fili
| Francisco Trinaldo
| Kevin Souza
| Leandro Silva
| Leonardo Mafra
| Christos Giagos
||Jorge de Oliveira
| Bentley Syler
My model sees a lot of the fights being virtual coin flips, including the co-main event between Erick Silva and Josh Koscheck. On one hand, I think there’s a good chance people are underrating Koscheck off an unimpressive performance in a tough matchup against Jake Ellenberger. On the other hand, my model doesn’t have a variable that accounts for a fighter just wanting to finish his contract and take home a couple extra paychecks.
On the other end of the spectrum, Christos Giagos is a massive 87% favorite against Jorge de Oliveira despite being 0-1 in the UFC. The model sees advantages for Giagos in every statistical category except knockdowns. That’s because Oliveira got manhandled by Dhiego Lima for three rounds in his debut. Oliveira is also ten years older than Giagos and is completely unranked by Fight Matrix. That’s why that estimate is so lopsided.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$26.19
Starting bankroll: $100.00
Current bankroll: $199.71
Total investment: $169.25
Total profit: $99.71
Return on investment: 58.9%
Rafael Dos Anjos came through in a big way for me last week, as he was my third biggest risk as a +425 underdog. I also got a key win with Alistair Overeem’s decision victory against Roy Nelson; while Overeem easily landed more strikes than Nelson in the fight, there were some very tense moments, especially when Nelson knocked him down late in the third round.
For this event I have…
Christos Giagos -190: $21.95 to win $11.55
Josh Koscheck +435: $6.93 to win $30.15
Katsunori Kikuno +210: $3.22 to win $6.76
Akbarh Arreola +185: $3.07 to win $5.68
Demian Maia +125: $2.49 to win $3.11
Cain Carrizosa +145: $1.84 to win $2.67
Drew Dober +140: $1.57 to win $2.20
Alex Oliveira +480: $1.48 to win $7.10
Leonardo Santos +125: $0.63 to win $0.79
Against my better judgement, the biggest risk I’m taking so far this year is on none other than Christos Giagos. That’s followed by Koscheck, Katsunori Kikuno, and Akbarh Arreola. Needless to say, this could go really wrong… but hopefully not!
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!