Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Fairfax: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

With this event kicking off at 11:00 AM EDT tomorrow… shouldn’t this be called “UFC Fight Day”? I’m sure European fans will appreciate being able to watch a live UFC event from the USA at a decent hour.

2015 PICKS

Last event: 9-3 (75.0%)

Year to date: 64-37 (63.4%)

STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES – UFC FIGHT NIGHT 63

Favorite % Underdog %
 Chad Mendes 67.6% Ricardo Lamas 32.4%
 Al Iaquinta 62.8% Jorge Masvidal 37.2%
 Michael Chiesa 64.7% Mitch Clarke 35.3%
 Julianna Pena 69.9% Milana Dudieva 30.1%
 Clay Guida 58.6% Robbie Peralta 41.4%
 Dustin Poirier 72.6% Carlos Diego Ferreira 27.4%
 Liz Carmouche 60.1% Lauren Murphy 39.9%
 Gray Maynard 57.8% Alexander Yakovlev 42.2%
 Shamil Abdurahimov 56.4% Timothy Johnson 43.6%
 Ron Stallings 63.2% Justin Jones 36.8%

While Mendes, Chiesa, and Pena are widely expected to win decisively against their respective opponents, the model thinks those fights are all more competitive than advertised. It also likes underdogs Al Iaquinta, Gray Maynard, and Ron Stallings.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last event: -$2.66

Current bankroll: $197.05

Starting bankroll: $100.00

Total investment: $212.43

Total profit: $97.05

Return on investment: 45.7%

Christos Giagos looked every bit like the 87% favorite the model said he was, easily taking down Jorge De Oliveira, passing guard, and finishing by first-round submission. Unfortunately, most of my bets at UFC Fight Night Rio were losers, including Josh Koscheck, who was unable to handle Erick Silva’s aggression, and Alex Oliveira, who came oh-so-close to winning by decision against Gilbert Burns before being submitted late in the third round.

For this event I have…

Ron Stallings +120: $8.68 to win $10.42

Al Iaquinta -102: $5.96 to win $5.84

Dustin Poirier -175: $5.89 to win $3.37

Gray Maynard +115: $4.82 to win $5.54

Liz Carmouche -105: $4.01 to win $3.82

Timothy Johnson +215: $3.78 to win $8.13

Mitch Clarke +355: $3.38 to win $12.00

Ricardo Lamas +365: $2.90 to win $10.59

Robbie Peralta +210: $2.81 to win $5.90

Milana Dudieva +275: $0.89 to win $2.45

That’s right, bets on every single fight! And the biggest bet goes to… Ron Stallings. I was skeptical when the model recommended a larger bet on an equally unproven fighter in Christos Giagos, so I’m a little more confident this time, although the fight between Stallings and Justin Jones is expected to be much more competitive.

The model also likes a bet on Gray Maynard, who I’m pretty sure nobody trusts at this point, including myself. Maynard is a terrific top-position grappler when he puts his mind to it, so here’s hoping he sticks to that part of his game against Alexander Yakovlev.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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7 responses to “UFC Fight Night Fairfax: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton April 3, 2015 at 5:17 pm

    5 units: @+105 AL IAQUINTA
    5 units: @ -125 Alexander YAKOVLEV

    5 units: @ +120 Mendes/Chiesa/Abdurahimov (parlay)

    • r.mattioli April 4, 2015 at 8:02 am

      I think carmouche might be a tad overrated….I I were betting iaquinta,i`d bet him via decision at +260….masvidal is hard to stop…

      • David Williams April 4, 2015 at 2:51 pm

        The Carmouche fight was just strange. When she started landing power double leg takedowns in the third, I wondered to myself “where has this been??”

  2. Howard Morton April 4, 2015 at 12:36 pm

    + 5.25 units. I needed it.

  3. Nick April 6, 2015 at 9:59 am

    Great read on Stallings.

  4. r.mattioli April 7, 2015 at 8:13 pm

    yes…the stallings pick was right as rain…the guy has very solid technical stand-up…throw in the fact he`s a lefty and you have a guy who can cause some problems…..

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