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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
Last event: 8-2 (80.0%)
Year to date: 72-39 (64.9%)
STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES – UFC FIGHT NIGHT 64
|Gabriel Gonzaga||71.4%||Mirko Cro Cop||28.6%|
|Jan Blachowicz||53.5%||Jimi Manuwa||46.5%|
|Pawel Pawlak||53.4%||Sheldon Westcott||46.6%|
|Joanne Calderwood||63.0%||Maryna Moroz||37.0%|
|Leon Edwards||60.3%||Seth Baczynski||39.7%|
|Bartosz Fabinski||55.3%||Garreth McLellan||44.7%|
|Sergio Moraes||50.2%||Mickael Lebout||49.8%|
|Damian Stasiak||66.2%||Yaotzin Meza||33.8%|
|Anthony Hamilton||64.7%||Daniel Omielanczuk||35.3%|
|Aleksandra Albu||54.8%||Izabela Badurek||45.2%|
|Steven Ray||66.1%||Marcin Bandel||33.9%|
|Taylor Lapilus||71.8%||Rocky Lee||28.2%|
There’s quite a bit of disagreement with the betting lines here. The model is picking three underdogs – Jan Blachowicz, Pawel Pawlak, and Daniel Omielanczuk – and likes Mickael Lebout’s chances as well.
The estimates for this event come with a lot of uncertainty, since most of the fighters on this card are either making their debut in the UFC, or have very little UFC experience.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$16.78
Current bankroll: $213.83
Starting bankroll: $100.00
Total investment: $255.55
Total profit: $113.83
Return on investment: 44.5%
Last week, the model’s faith in Ron Stallings was rewarded, as he landed hard punches and kicks en route to a decision victory over Justin Jones. I also got a little help from the judges, as Al Iaquinta probably didn’t deserve to beat Jorge Masvidal, even with the deeply flawed ten-point must system scoring. That Iaquinta win was the difference between a $5 profit and a $17 profit.
For this event I have…
Anthony Hamilton +135: $7.09 to win $9.57
Mickael Lebout +400: $6.71 to win $26.84
Pawel Pawlak +185: $4.44 to win $8.21
Maryna Moroz +600: $4.07 to win $24.42
Damian Stasiak -125: $3.56 to win $2.85
Izabela Badurek +200: $2.45 to win $4.90
Jan Blachowicz +125: $2.20 to win $2.75
Taylor Lapilus -200: $2.06 to win $1.03
Gabriel Gonzaga -210: $1.45 to win $0.69
Leon Edwards -130: $1.07 to win $0.82
This is where I find myself… putting my biggest bets of a UFC event on Anthony Hamilton, Mickael Lebout, Pawel Pawlak, and Maryna Moroz. Wish me luck!
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!