Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Krakow: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 8-2 (80.0%)

Year to date: 72-39 (64.9%)

STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES – UFC FIGHT NIGHT 64

Favorite % Underdog %
 Gabriel Gonzaga 71.4% Mirko Cro Cop 28.6%
 Jan Blachowicz 53.5% Jimi Manuwa 46.5%
 Pawel Pawlak 53.4% Sheldon Westcott 46.6%
 Joanne Calderwood 63.0% Maryna Moroz 37.0%
 Leon Edwards 60.3% Seth Baczynski 39.7%
 Bartosz Fabinski 55.3% Garreth McLellan 44.7%
 Sergio Moraes 50.2% Mickael Lebout 49.8%
 Damian Stasiak 66.2% Yaotzin Meza 33.8%
 Anthony Hamilton 64.7% Daniel Omielanczuk 35.3%
 Aleksandra Albu 54.8% Izabela Badurek 45.2%
 Steven Ray 66.1% Marcin Bandel 33.9%
 Taylor Lapilus 71.8% Rocky Lee 28.2%

There’s quite a bit of disagreement with the betting lines here. The model is picking three underdogs – Jan Blachowicz, Pawel Pawlak, and Daniel Omielanczuk – and likes Mickael Lebout’s chances as well.

The estimates for this event come with a lot of uncertainty, since most of the fighters on this card are either making their debut in the UFC, or have very little UFC experience.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$16.78

Current bankroll: $213.83

Starting bankroll: $100.00

Total investment: $255.55

Total profit: $113.83

Return on investment: 44.5%

Last week, the model’s faith in Ron Stallings was rewarded, as he landed hard punches and kicks en route to a decision victory over Justin Jones. I also got a little help from the judges, as Al Iaquinta probably didn’t deserve to beat Jorge Masvidal, even with the deeply flawed ten-point must system scoring. That Iaquinta win was the difference between a $5 profit and a $17 profit.

For this event I have…

Anthony Hamilton +135: $7.09 to win $9.57

Mickael Lebout +400: $6.71 to win $26.84

Pawel Pawlak +185: $4.44 to win $8.21

Maryna Moroz +600: $4.07 to win $24.42

Damian Stasiak -125: $3.56 to win $2.85

Izabela Badurek +200: $2.45 to win $4.90

Jan Blachowicz +125: $2.20 to win $2.75

Taylor Lapilus -200: $2.06 to win $1.03

Gabriel Gonzaga -210: $1.45 to win $0.69

Leon Edwards -130: $1.07 to win $0.82

This is where I find myself… putting my biggest bets of a UFC event on Anthony Hamilton, Mickael Lebout, Pawel Pawlak, and Maryna Moroz. Wish me luck!

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do not recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. I am doing this for fun and as an experiment, not as a livelihood. Whatever bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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12 responses to “UFC Fight Night Krakow: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. r.mattioli April 10, 2015 at 9:24 pm

    may play a lottery prop on moroz…she`s a sort of a lower case polish ronda rousey….and as david indicated,not sure Calderwood is the unbeatable prospect some think…moroz via sub at +1100….

  2. r.mattioli April 11, 2015 at 11:46 am

    correction…”ukraninan” not “polska”….

  3. MikeO April 11, 2015 at 12:23 pm

    wow. i cannot thank you enough r.mattioli lol. after you posted that i decided to take a flyer on moroz $2 to win $19 moroz by sub and then $2 on moroz to simply win to get $9, so ended up with $28.

    • r.mattioli April 13, 2015 at 4:47 pm

      glad somebody followed….david`s on fire and I stumble into one on occasion(I was feeling a little menstrual that day and broke down and took a midol for the first time… and everything suddenly became clear for me…lol)….

      I`m seeing paige van zant at -135 next week….I`m not overly impressed with herrig`s game(the rest of her I like)…although herrig has a large experience edge,I liked what I saw of van zant…..she`s a gamer…..the way she competes is in contradiction to the way she looks…she`s tough and persistent and seems to have excellent stamina….the worry would be a quick sub…..I`ve seen van zxant in jeopardy but she doesn`t tap easily…..

  4. olddirtyfighter April 11, 2015 at 3:21 pm

    David, to be frank, I was skeptical about your model being any good so quickly and without fine tuning. Your results have been nothing less than fantastic. Keep up this excellent work.

    • David Williams April 11, 2015 at 6:02 pm

      Thank you very much! To be honest, I’ve been surprised by the results myself. I have no doubt that a losing streak will happen eventually, but it’s been fun to be so successful the last three months.

  5. szady April 13, 2015 at 6:41 am

    What a fantastic job David! Keep up the good work! WOW

  6. Howard Morton April 13, 2015 at 10:30 am

    Good work Williams.

  7. Nick April 13, 2015 at 11:54 am

    If only Lebout won – http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/6100/Sergio-Moraes-vs-Mickael-Lebout

    Awesome job David… 2 more weekend of fights to breakdown.

  8. David Williams April 13, 2015 at 11:49 pm

    Thank you guys for the recognition! Here’s hoping for continued success for all of us!

  9. r.mattioli April 14, 2015 at 10:39 pm

    after much thought and consternation,i`m backing off the van zant pick…..just can`t pull the trigger on that youth and inexperience as a favorite….her stand-up is still very shaky….she`s so damned tenacious but that may not be enough for a raw girl vs this much experience….

    it`s a toss-up….I`d probably play her as a dog…not as a fave…have to see more vs better competition than kailin curran…

    am looking at hettes at +155….

    good card…would be a damned good card if romero hadn`t pulled out…

  10. BlackSwan April 15, 2015 at 6:59 am

    I’m really liking this new model. I was very skeptic about this event but it beat the picks I had made. Thanks for the great work David. I’ll be checking in more often that’s for sure!

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