Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC on Fox 15: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last Event: 7-4 (63.6%)

Year To Date: 79-43 (64.8%)

UFC ON FOX 15 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Lyoto Machida 72.7% Luke Rockhold 27.3%
 Ronaldo Souza 88.5% Chris Camozzi 11.5%
 Max Holloway 57.4% Cub Swanson 42.6%
 Paige VanZant 54.3% Felice Herrig 45.7%
 Beneil Dariush 62.6% Jim Miller 37.4%
 Ovince St-Preux 53.0% Patrick Cummins 47.0%
 Corey Anderson 81.2% Gian Villante 18.8%
 Aljamain Sterling 59.9% Takeya Mizugaki 40.1%
 Tim Means 55.9% George Sullivan 44.1%
 Jimy Hettes 51.0% Diego Brandao 49.0%
 Eddie Gordon 66.6% Chris Dempsey 33.4%

Yes, that’s underdog Lyoto Machida listed as a 72.7% favorite to win tomorrow’s main event against Luke Rockhold. I explained why the model likes Machida so much in my predictions post. The short version: Machida has better striking defense and a better chin in a striker vs. striker matchup. The model also likes underdogs Max Holloway, Ovince St-Preux, and Jimy Hettes.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: +$27.68

Current Bankroll: $241.51

Starting Bankroll: $100.00

Total Investment: $290.65

Total Profit: $141.51

Return On Investment: 48.7%

All I have to say about last week is… Maryna Moroz! Not many people thought she had much of a chance against Joanne Calderwood, but she came through with a flurry of strikes and an armbar in the first round to cash as a 6-1 underdog.

For this event I have…

Lyoto Machida +145: $27.13 to win $39.34

Max Holloway +135: $8.09 to win $10.92

Takeya Mizugaki +325: $6.43 to win $20.90

Jimy Hettes +150: $5.21 to win $7.82

Chris Dempsey +375: $4.31 to win $16.16

Corey Anderson -360: $3.63 to win $1.01

Ovince St-Preux +110: $2.66 to win $2.93

George Sullivan +155: $2.03 to win $3.15

Chris Camozzi +1000: $0.63 to win $6.30

We have a new biggest bet of the year! The success of this event pretty much hinges on whether or not Lyoto Machida is able to beat Luke Rockhold. If Machida loses, I’ll need wins by either Takeya Mizugaki or both Max Holloway and Chris Dempsey to end up making money.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my betting picks in any serious way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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5 responses to “UFC on Fox 15: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton April 17, 2015 at 4:27 pm

    5 units: Lyoto Machida +150
    5 units: Max Holloway +135
    5 units: Patrick Cummins -120
    5 units: George Sullivan +155
    5 units: Gordan/Sterling/Anderson PARLAY @+100

  2. Howard Morton April 17, 2015 at 4:29 pm

    Maryna Moroz was dominant.

  3. r.mattioli April 18, 2015 at 9:48 pm

    rockhold,holloway,st preux and van zant made ststements…rockhold and st preux look enormous at their respective weights(I honestly thought st preux made cummins look like a sorority girl…he was that much bigger)….

    Holloway made swanson look like an amateur…he`s a legit contendaer and I hope he gets another shot at McGregor…he`s evolved into a legit contender…

    van zant has much to learn and may never be a legit contender but she`s only 21 and I can`t think of many that can apply that kind of pressure for 15 minutes…by the middle of the second herrig was overwhelmed….van zant just outworked her…

    it`s hard to believe that sweet looking little girl unleashes that kind of hell inside the cage….if they can teach her some rudimentary jitz and polish up that striking(which was exposed by tecia torres)she`ll be a handful for any girl at the weight…if you can`t put her away early,you`re going to have to earn your paycheck(and then some)…,.

    • David Williams April 18, 2015 at 10:12 pm

      Yes, Rockhold and St-Preux are both enormous for their weight class. That’s why it’s so rare to see new talent in the heavyweight division. Fighters like Rockhold and St-Preux would have been heavyweights a decade ago. Now, Rockhold is a middleweight and St-Preux is a light-heavyweight.

      I totally agree on VanZant. She made a lot of positional mistakes but made up for it with a sustained barrage of strikes. She could be a real contender for the title in a couple years. Being at Team Alpha Male is great for her too.

      • Howard Morton April 19, 2015 at 7:20 pm

        I agree.

        Rockhold and OSP looked massive for their weight classes. I bet Rockhold walks around at 225 pounds. OSP probably walks around at 230-235 pounds.

        I think the solution is to have same day weigh ins. MMA should be about skill not who the better weight cutter is.

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