Last Event: 7-4 (63.6%)
Year To Date: 79-43 (64.8%)
UFC ON FOX 15 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Lyoto Machida
| Ronaldo Souza
| Max Holloway
| Paige VanZant
| Beneil Dariush
| Ovince St-Preux
| Corey Anderson
| Aljamain Sterling
| Tim Means
| Jimy Hettes
| Eddie Gordon
Yes, that’s underdog Lyoto Machida listed as a 72.7% favorite to win tomorrow’s main event against Luke Rockhold. I explained why the model likes Machida so much in my predictions post. The short version: Machida has better striking defense and a better chin in a striker vs. striker matchup. The model also likes underdogs Max Holloway, Ovince St-Preux, and Jimy Hettes.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$27.68
Current Bankroll: $241.51
Starting Bankroll: $100.00
Total Investment: $290.65
Total Profit: $141.51
Return On Investment: 48.7%
All I have to say about last week is… Maryna Moroz! Not many people thought she had much of a chance against Joanne Calderwood, but she came through with a flurry of strikes and an armbar in the first round to cash as a 6-1 underdog.
For this event I have…
Lyoto Machida +145: $27.13 to win $39.34
Max Holloway +135: $8.09 to win $10.92
Takeya Mizugaki +325: $6.43 to win $20.90
Jimy Hettes +150: $5.21 to win $7.82
Chris Dempsey +375: $4.31 to win $16.16
Corey Anderson -360: $3.63 to win $1.01
Ovince St-Preux +110: $2.66 to win $2.93
George Sullivan +155: $2.03 to win $3.15
Chris Camozzi +1000: $0.63 to win $6.30
We have a new biggest bet of the year! The success of this event pretty much hinges on whether or not Lyoto Machida is able to beat Luke Rockhold. If Machida loses, I’ll need wins by either Takeya Mizugaki or both Max Holloway and Chris Dempsey to end up making money.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my betting picks in any serious way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!