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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
Sadly I’ve decided to pass on watching this event. I can deal with a pay per view show that has a lopsided title fight, or has a lackluster undercard, but not both. I sincerely hope the show ends up being great entertainment for the fans that have purchased tickets to see it live.
Last event: 7-4 (63.6%)
Year to date: 86-47 (64.7%)
UFC 186 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Demetrious Johnson||76.6%||Kyoji Horiguchi||23.4%|
|C.B. Dollaway||56.9%||Michael Bisping||43.1%|
|Quinton Jackson||55.8%||Fabio Maldonado||44.2%|
|John Makdessi||55.9%||Shane Campbell||44.1%|
|Thomas Almeida||64.5%||Yves Jabouin||35.5%|
|Joe Riggs||53.4%||Patrick Cote||46.6%|
|Sarah Kaufman||67.6%||Alexis Davis||32.4%|
|Bryan Barberena||51.5%||Chad Laprise||48.5%|
|Olivier Aubin-Mercier||52.2%||David Michaud||47.8%|
|Nordine Taleb||75.2%||Chris Clements||24.8%|
|Valerie Letourneau||69.0%||Jessica Rakoczy||31.0%|
|Aisling Daly||54.7%||Randa Markos||45.3%|
As usual, the model thinks many of the fights on this card are more competitive than the lopsided betting lines would suggest. It thinks C.B. Dollaway will upset Michael Bisping, and has Quinton Jackson having just slightly better than a coin flip’s chance against Fabio Maldonado. On the prelims, it likes Joe Riggs to upset Patrick Cote and thinks TUF Nations finalists Chad Laprise and Olivier Aubin-Mercier are both being badly overrated.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: -$15.05
Current bankroll: $226.46
Starting bankroll: $100.00
Total investment: $350.77
Total profit: $126.46
Return on investment: 36.1%
I placed a huge bet on Lyoto Machida last week (huge in relative terms) and got wiped out. Luke Rockhold not only got the win, he really out-classed Machida in the process. It didn’t shock me that Rockhold won, but it did shock me that he beat Machida so badly. Rockhold’s top position ground game is terrifying.
For this event I have…
Bryan Barberena +345: $5.14 to win $17.73
David Michaud +320: $3.94 to win $12.61
Joe Riggs +185: $3.37 to win $6.23
C.B. Dollaway +135: $2.85 to win $3.85
Fabio Maldonado +248: $2.38 to win $5.90
Valerie Letourneau -155: $2.29 to win $1.48
Aisling Daly +240: $2.12 to win $5.09
Yves Jabouin +380: $1.95 to win $7.41
Nordine Taleb -240: $1.61 to win $0.67
Kyoji Horiguchi +635: $1.11 to win $7.05
Shane Campbell +150: $0.63 to win $0.95
Thankfully, there isn’t any one fight that’s a must-win for me like Machida was last week. Instead, my risk has been spread out among a number of underdogs on the prelims, most notably Bryan Barberena and David Michaud. The way this event breaks down is simple – if there aren’t many upsets, then it probably won’t be a good night for me.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
If you’re a hardcore enough fan to purchase this show, then best of luck and enjoy the fights!