Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 186: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

Sadly I’ve decided to pass on watching this event. I can deal with a pay per view show that has a lopsided title fight, or has a lackluster undercard, but not both. I sincerely hope the show ends up being great entertainment for the fans that have purchased tickets to see it live.

2015 PICKS

Last event: 7-4 (63.6%)

Year to date: 86-47 (64.7%)

UFC 186 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Demetrious Johnson 76.6% Kyoji Horiguchi 23.4%
 C.B. Dollaway 56.9% Michael Bisping 43.1%
 Quinton Jackson 55.8% Fabio Maldonado 44.2%
 John Makdessi 55.9% Shane Campbell 44.1%
 Thomas Almeida 64.5% Yves Jabouin 35.5%
 Joe Riggs 53.4% Patrick Cote 46.6%
 Sarah Kaufman 67.6% Alexis Davis 32.4%
 Bryan Barberena 51.5% Chad Laprise 48.5%
 Olivier Aubin-Mercier 52.2% David Michaud 47.8%
 Nordine Taleb 75.2% Chris Clements 24.8%
 Valerie Letourneau 69.0% Jessica Rakoczy 31.0%
 Aisling Daly 54.7% Randa Markos 45.3%

As usual, the model thinks many of the fights on this card are more competitive than the lopsided betting lines would suggest. It thinks C.B. Dollaway will upset Michael Bisping, and has Quinton Jackson having just slightly better than a coin flip’s chance against Fabio Maldonado. On the prelims, it likes Joe Riggs to upset Patrick Cote and thinks TUF Nations finalists Chad Laprise and Olivier Aubin-Mercier are both being badly overrated.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$15.05

Current bankroll: $226.46

Starting bankroll: $100.00

Total investment: $350.77

Total profit: $126.46

Return on investment: 36.1%

I placed a huge bet on Lyoto Machida last week (huge in relative terms) and got wiped out. Luke Rockhold not only got the win, he really out-classed Machida in the process. It didn’t shock me that Rockhold won, but it did shock me that he beat Machida so badly. Rockhold’s top position ground game is terrifying.

For this event I have…

Bryan Barberena +345: $5.14 to win $17.73

David Michaud +320: $3.94 to win $12.61

Joe Riggs +185: $3.37 to win $6.23

C.B. Dollaway +135: $2.85 to win $3.85

Fabio Maldonado +248: $2.38 to win $5.90

Valerie Letourneau -155: $2.29 to win $1.48

Aisling Daly +240: $2.12 to win $5.09

Yves Jabouin +380: $1.95 to win $7.41

Nordine Taleb -240: $1.61 to win $0.67

Kyoji Horiguchi +635: $1.11 to win $7.05

Shane Campbell +150: $0.63 to win $0.95

Thankfully, there isn’t any one fight that’s a must-win for me like Machida was last week. Instead, my risk has been spread out among a number of underdogs on the prelims, most notably Bryan Barberena and David Michaud. The way this event breaks down is simple – if there aren’t many upsets, then it probably won’t be a good night for me.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

If you’re a hardcore enough fan to purchase this show, then best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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5 responses to “UFC 186: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. r.mattioli April 24, 2015 at 8:57 pm

    I`m one of those odd birds that isn`t as smitten with Johnson(best pfp/all-time great/yada yada)…it`s a weak division and even with ligaments made of papier mache,i`d take dom. cruz over him everyday….

    I think markos is on the come…she has a nasty attitude and seems to be uber-focused on climbing up the ladder…now that she`s actually had time to work on her game,i expect her to be a very tough out…….unfortunately the oddsmakers aren`t buying daly`s “I beat her up in training at the ultimate fighter” schtick….

    riggs seems very shopworn to me and cote is the type to get up for a fight in his hometown….not a big cote fan but with his chin,i think that gives him an advantage here over a guy that brings nothing exceptional to the table……his recent wins were vs less than formidable opposition…

    anxious to see almeida…..may use him inside the distance in a par with something……

    pretty lousy ppv card….

    next weekend floyd/manny and the nfl draft…

  2. r.mattioli April 24, 2015 at 9:52 pm

    cote loses here in front of his homies,it might be time to open that poutine franchise….

  3. atmosfear April 25, 2015 at 2:15 am

    I think most of your picks for this event is spot on. The only one I strongly disagree with is the Riggs vs. Cote fight. I think Joe Riggs will definitely lose to Patrick Cote.

    I really enjoy your blog, thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts and breaking down the fights and stats!

  4. Howard Morton April 25, 2015 at 9:24 am

    Good write-up.

    I like Maldonado, Barberena, Holloway and Campbell as dogs.

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