Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Manila: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 8-4 (66.7%)

Year to date: 102-55 (65.0%)

Picks went well last week as I correctly predicted three underdogs to win in Sean O’Connell, Ben Nguyen, and Brendan O’Reilly. I also correctly predicted Brad Scott to win in a toss-up fight against Dylan Andrews.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT MANILA – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Frankie Edgar 80.5% Urijah Faber 19.5%
 Gegard Mousasi 84.4% Costas Philippou 15.6%
 Mark Munoz 54.6% Luke Barnatt 45.4%
 Neil Magny 82.2% Hyun Gyu Lim 17.8%
 Yui Chul Nam 76.0% Phillipe Nover 24.0%
 Levan Makashvili 72.6% Mark Eddiva 27.4%
 Jon Tuck 51.3% Tae Hyun Bang 48.7%
 Zhang Lipeng 51.6% Kajan Johnson 48.4%
 Dhiego Lima 67.5% Li Jingliang 32.5%
 Royston Wee 58.2% Ning Guangyou 41.8%
 Roldan Sangcha-an 59.5% Jon Delos Reyes 40.5%
 Yao Zhikui 62.5% Nolan Ticman 37.5%

The thing that jumps out most here is probably Neil Magny at 82.2% to beat Hyun Gyu Lim. I definitely think Magny is the favorite to win that fight, and will probably win if the fight goes the distance, but that still feels like an overestimate to me. The model also likes underdogs Mark Munoz, Zhang Lipeng, Royston Wee, Roldan Sangcha-an, and… Yao Zhikui. I picked Nolan Ticman to beat Zhikui in my predictions post, because Zhikui’s record is 1-2 and it’s hard for me to justify picking a fighter like that to win in the UFC.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$44.59

Current bankroll: $249.71

Starting bankroll: $100.00

Total investment: $428.22

Total profit: $149.71

Return on investment: 35.0%

The three underdogs from last week – O’Connell, Nguyen, and O’Reilly – also happened to be my three biggest bets. The fourth biggest bet was on Daniel Hooker at +260, and that came through as a winner also. The result is my single biggest gain so far.

For this event I have…

Neil Magny -120: $9.02 to win $7.52

Yao Zhikui +245: $5.19 to win $12.72

Yui Chul Nam -165: $3.32 to win $2.01

Roldan Sangcha-an +165: $3.12 to win $5.15

Royston Wee +130: $2.05 to win $2.67

Mark Munoz +145: $1.76 to win $2.55

Dhiego Lima -145: $1.49 to win $1.03

Tae Hyun Bang +130: $0.59 to win $0.77

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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4 responses to “UFC Fight Night Manila: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Mirko May 16, 2015 at 1:35 am

    Magny vs Lim fight kinda reminds me on Henderson vs Thatch. A grinder vs a guy with strong ko power, especially in his knees. Henderson was a smaller guy, took a fight on short notice and still managed to pull a win. I think Magny will be able to do the same, we’ll see.

  2. Nick May 16, 2015 at 9:18 am

    AWeseome read on Zhikui, Munoz and Magny by the model.

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