Last event: 8-4 (66.7%)
Year to date: 102-55 (65.0%)
Picks went well last week as I correctly predicted three underdogs to win in Sean O’Connell, Ben Nguyen, and Brendan O’Reilly. I also correctly predicted Brad Scott to win in a toss-up fight against Dylan Andrews.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT MANILA – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Frankie Edgar
| Gegard Mousasi
| Mark Munoz
| Neil Magny
||Hyun Gyu Lim
| Yui Chul Nam
| Levan Makashvili
| Jon Tuck
||Tae Hyun Bang
| Zhang Lipeng
| Dhiego Lima
| Royston Wee
| Roldan Sangcha-an
||Jon Delos Reyes
| Yao Zhikui
The thing that jumps out most here is probably Neil Magny at 82.2% to beat Hyun Gyu Lim. I definitely think Magny is the favorite to win that fight, and will probably win if the fight goes the distance, but that still feels like an overestimate to me. The model also likes underdogs Mark Munoz, Zhang Lipeng, Royston Wee, Roldan Sangcha-an, and… Yao Zhikui. I picked Nolan Ticman to beat Zhikui in my predictions post, because Zhikui’s record is 1-2 and it’s hard for me to justify picking a fighter like that to win in the UFC.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$44.59
Current bankroll: $249.71
Starting bankroll: $100.00
Total investment: $428.22
Total profit: $149.71
Return on investment: 35.0%
The three underdogs from last week – O’Connell, Nguyen, and O’Reilly – also happened to be my three biggest bets. The fourth biggest bet was on Daniel Hooker at +260, and that came through as a winner also. The result is my single biggest gain so far.
For this event I have…
Neil Magny -120: $9.02 to win $7.52
Yao Zhikui +245: $5.19 to win $12.72
Yui Chul Nam -165: $3.32 to win $2.01
Roldan Sangcha-an +165: $3.12 to win $5.15
Royston Wee +130: $2.05 to win $2.67
Mark Munoz +145: $1.76 to win $2.55
Dhiego Lima -145: $1.49 to win $1.03
Tae Hyun Bang +130: $0.59 to win $0.77
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!