Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 187: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 6-6 (50.0%)

Year to date: 108-61 (63.9%)

At last week’s UFC Fight Night in Manila, I got the first six fights wrong (including Yao Zhikui, who my model liked but I didn’t) but got the last six fights right. There’s something to be said for improved accuracy with more data.

UFC 187 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Anthony Johnson 67.6% Daniel Cormier 32.4%
 Chris Weidman 88.1% Vitor Belfort 11.9%
 Donald Cerrone 81.6% John Makdessi 18.4%
 Andrei Arlovski 58.1% Travis Browne 41.9%
 Joseph Benavidez 81.0% John Moraga 19.0%
 Zach Makovsky 51.5% John Dodson 48.5%
 Dong Hyun Kim 67.4% Josh Burkman 32.6%
 Rafael Natal 54.7% Uriah Hall 45.3%
 Rose Namajunas 65.7% Nina Ansaroff 34.3%
 Colby Covington 53.2% Mike Pyle 46.8%
 Islam Makhachev 59.6% Leo Kuntz 40.4%
 Justin Scoggins 78.2% Josh Sampo 21.8%

The model likes four underdogs to win at this event, and three of them are MASSIVE underdogs. One is Andrei Arlovski, who is listed at +380 against Travis Browne. One is Zach Makovsky, listed at +435 against John Dodson. The other is Rafael Natal, listed at +340 against Uriah Hall. Of the three, I could only bring myself to pick Natal to win.

The model also believes that Covington-Pyle is a much closer fight than the betting lines suggest.

As always, my degenerate gambling will be based on the model percentages, whether I subjectively agree with them or not. Speaking of which…

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$17.55

Current bankroll: $267.26

Total investment: $454.76

Total profit: $167.26

Return on investment: 36.8%

My three biggest bets last week – Neil Magny, Yao Zhikui, and Yui Chul Nam – were all winners. I also won a bet on underdog Mark Munoz while losing bets on Roldan Sangcha-an, Royston Wee, Dhiego Lima, and Tae Hyun Bang.

For this event I have…

Andrei Arlovski +380: $7.49 to win $28.46

Rafael Natal +340: $5.94 to win $20.20

Zach Makovsky +435: $5.69 to win $24.75

Anthony Johnson +100: $4.57 to win $4.57

Chris Weidman -500: $3.37 to win $0.67

Mike Pyle +265: $3.07 to win $8.14

Leo Kuntz +320: $2.34 to win $7.49

My success will be largely tied to the fate of the three big underdogs my model likes to win: Arlovski, Natal, and Makovsky. If any one of the three wins, I’m in good shape. If they all lose, then it will be a losing event for me overall.

And yes, that’s a straight bet on Chris Weidman at -500.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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3 responses to “UFC 187: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Mirko May 23, 2015 at 7:33 am

    Well if anyone can knockout out Browne that is sure as hell Arlovski, first man to put Roy Nelson to sleep. I agree with your model on that fight.
    How come you aren’t doing any parlays instead of straight betting on huge favorite, I know you like Weidman but still you could maybe add Cerrone and/or Benavidez there?

  2. r.mattioli May 23, 2015 at 10:07 pm

    solid night,d.w…….I think without the slam at the end of round 2,mackovsky had a chance to shade it,too…..
    cormier took the fight off his most demoralizing loss,weathered the storm and imposed his will…Johnson still has cardio issues in hard fights…really bad style match-up for him….cormier is a bad man with that wrestling…top 4 pfp,easy imo….

    Uriah grant seems to be a major league front runner….when natal didn`t go away,he faded as the fight wore on(much like the gastellum fight)……way overrated(in part because of joe rogan`s effuse fanboy-ism)…..

    major congrats to arlovski…I`m befuddled as to why browne had such a wide stance…he threw a right hand,had no balance to throw a follow up or move out of the pocket(try it yourself…once you throw the hard right hand you`re helpless and off balance…boxing 101)..he was just frozen and arlovski did what he was supposed to do(counter a helpless guy who was totally off balance)…..

    excellent card…..loved every minute of it…

    way to go Daniel….

  3. r.mattioli May 23, 2015 at 10:08 pm

    and btw…the young dagestani looks like a keeper…these sambo guys are nasty-talented…

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