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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
Last event: 6-6 (50.0%)
Year to date: 108-61 (63.9%)
At last week’s UFC Fight Night in Manila, I got the first six fights wrong (including Yao Zhikui, who my model liked but I didn’t) but got the last six fights right. There’s something to be said for improved accuracy with more data.
UFC 187 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Anthony Johnson||67.6%||Daniel Cormier||32.4%|
|Chris Weidman||88.1%||Vitor Belfort||11.9%|
|Donald Cerrone||81.6%||John Makdessi||18.4%|
|Andrei Arlovski||58.1%||Travis Browne||41.9%|
|Joseph Benavidez||81.0%||John Moraga||19.0%|
|Zach Makovsky||51.5%||John Dodson||48.5%|
|Dong Hyun Kim||67.4%||Josh Burkman||32.6%|
|Rafael Natal||54.7%||Uriah Hall||45.3%|
|Rose Namajunas||65.7%||Nina Ansaroff||34.3%|
|Colby Covington||53.2%||Mike Pyle||46.8%|
|Islam Makhachev||59.6%||Leo Kuntz||40.4%|
|Justin Scoggins||78.2%||Josh Sampo||21.8%|
The model likes four underdogs to win at this event, and three of them are MASSIVE underdogs. One is Andrei Arlovski, who is listed at +380 against Travis Browne. One is Zach Makovsky, listed at +435 against John Dodson. The other is Rafael Natal, listed at +340 against Uriah Hall. Of the three, I could only bring myself to pick Natal to win.
The model also believes that Covington-Pyle is a much closer fight than the betting lines suggest.
As always, my degenerate gambling will be based on the model percentages, whether I subjectively agree with them or not. Speaking of which…
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$17.55
Current bankroll: $267.26
Total investment: $454.76
Total profit: $167.26
Return on investment: 36.8%
My three biggest bets last week – Neil Magny, Yao Zhikui, and Yui Chul Nam – were all winners. I also won a bet on underdog Mark Munoz while losing bets on Roldan Sangcha-an, Royston Wee, Dhiego Lima, and Tae Hyun Bang.
For this event I have…
Andrei Arlovski +380: $7.49 to win $28.46
Rafael Natal +340: $5.94 to win $20.20
Zach Makovsky +435: $5.69 to win $24.75
Anthony Johnson +100: $4.57 to win $4.57
Chris Weidman -500: $3.37 to win $0.67
Mike Pyle +265: $3.07 to win $8.14
Leo Kuntz +320: $2.34 to win $7.49
My success will be largely tied to the fate of the three big underdogs my model likes to win: Arlovski, Natal, and Makovsky. If any one of the three wins, I’m in good shape. If they all lose, then it will be a losing event for me overall.
And yes, that’s a straight bet on Chris Weidman at -500.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!