Last event: 9-2 (81.8%)
Year to date: 117-63 (65.0%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT GOIANIA – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Carlos Condit
| Nik Lentz
| K.J. Noons
| Ryan Jimmo
| Norman Parke
| Darren Till
| Rony Jason
| Wilson Reis
| Nicolas Dalby
||Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos
| Mirsad Bektic
| Ericka Almeida
| Tom Breese
If you like close, competitive fights, then you should like this fight card… at least, the model thinks so. The top two fights on the card are considered coin flips despite each fight having a -260 favorite (Condit, Charles Oliveira). Underdog picks for this event include Nik Lentz, K.J. Noons, Darren Till (barely an underdog), Wilson Reis, and Ericka Almeida.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$33.66
Current bankroll: $300.92
Total investment: $487.23
Total profit: $200.92
Return on investment: 41.2%
UFC 187 went extremely well, as underdog bets on Andrei Arlovski and Rafael Natal cashed, while third underdog Zach Makovsky gave John Dodson a very close and competitive fight. The result is a third straight winning event and breaking the $300 barrier for the first time.
For this event I have…
Ericka Almeida +180: $12.50 to win $22.50
Nik Lentz +240: $8.32 to win $19.97
Thiago Alves +240: $7.71 to win $18.50
K.J. Noons +125: $6.06 to win $7.58
Lucas Martins +420: $5.62 to win $23.60
Wilson Reis +120: $5.00 to win $6.00
Darren Till +100: $3.80 to win $3.80
Tom Breese -175: $3.15 to win $1.80
Damon Jackson +155: $1.63 to win $2.53
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos +320: $1.16 to win $3.71
Francimar Barroso +235: $1.10 to win $2.59
Once again, I’m loading up on underdogs, led by the debuting and unproven Ericka Almeida. The model sees Juliana Lima’s below-average statistics and Almeida’s big youth advantage and gives Almeida the edge. Of course, I remember picking Larissa Pacheco under similar circumstances and that didn’t work very well. Hopefully things will be different this time.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!