Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Goiania: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 9-2 (81.8%)

Year to date: 117-63 (65.0%)

UFC FIGHT NIGHT GOIANIA – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Carlos Condit 50.9% Thiago Alves 49.1%
 Nik Lentz 50.2% Charles Oliveira 49.8%
 K.J. Noons 57.4% Alex Oliveira 42.6%
 Ryan Jimmo 66.5% Francimar Barroso 33.5%
 Norman Parke 67.6% Francisco Trinaldo 32.4%
 Darren Till 58.0% Wendell Oliveira 42.0%
 Rony Jason 56.2% Damon Jackson 43.8%
 Wilson Reis 56.4% Jussier Formiga 43.6%
 Nicolas Dalby 72.0% Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos 28.0%
 Mirsad Bektic 63.0% Lucas Martins 37.0%
 Ericka Almeida 60.5% Juliana Lima 39.5%
 Tom Breese 68.6% Luiz Dutra 31.4%

If you like close, competitive fights, then you should like this fight card… at least, the model thinks so. The top two fights on the card are considered coin flips despite each fight having a -260 favorite (Condit, Charles Oliveira). Underdog picks for this event include Nik Lentz, K.J. Noons, Darren Till (barely an underdog), Wilson Reis, and Ericka Almeida.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$33.66

Current bankroll: $300.92

Total investment: $487.23

Total profit: $200.92

Return on investment: 41.2%

UFC 187 went extremely well, as underdog bets on Andrei Arlovski and Rafael Natal cashed, while third underdog Zach Makovsky gave John Dodson a very close and competitive fight. The result is a third straight winning event and breaking the $300 barrier for the first time.

For this event I have…

Ericka Almeida +180: $12.50 to win $22.50

Nik Lentz +240: $8.32 to win $19.97

Thiago Alves +240: $7.71 to win $18.50

K.J. Noons +125: $6.06 to win $7.58

Lucas Martins +420: $5.62 to win $23.60

Wilson Reis +120: $5.00 to win $6.00

Darren Till +100: $3.80 to win $3.80

Tom Breese -175: $3.15 to win $1.80

Damon Jackson +155: $1.63 to win $2.53

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos +320: $1.16 to win $3.71

Francimar Barroso +235: $1.10 to win $2.59

Once again, I’m loading up on underdogs, led by the debuting and unproven Ericka Almeida. The model sees Juliana Lima’s below-average statistics and Almeida’s big youth advantage and gives Almeida the edge. Of course, I remember picking Larissa Pacheco under similar circumstances and that didn’t work very well. Hopefully things will be different this time.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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4 responses to “UFC Fight Night Goiania: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. r.mattioli May 30, 2015 at 1:40 pm

    after looking it over I think it`s a pretty good t.v. card…some new faces I`m anxious to see…the lentz/oliveira rematch is very interesting…oliveira`s m.o. seems predictable…he looks like a champ vs less than elite guys and fails badly vs top dogs…the first fight he looked clearly the better man….has lentz improved in the interim?..he`s not an easy out,but not sure i`d call him “elite”….

    curious to see how condit`s leg holds up vs pitbull`s kicks….if it holds,pitbull would still be sort of live at these odds…in a 5 rounder,i go with condit(still remember vividly the amazing condit comeback vs rory macdonald)…condit`s never out of a fight………. …

    ,i`m going to do with almeida what I did with moroz vs Calderwood….take the new submission specialistl at nice odds(+175/+430 itd)…..de lima looks to be the more physical girl but she can`t sleep on almeida`s propensity to finish….

    g.l.,gents…

  2. Howard Morton May 30, 2015 at 3:11 pm

    It is a good card for FS1. The main event and co main event are intriguing.

    Less than an hour away from the start so good luck to everyone as usual.

  3. r.mattioli May 31, 2015 at 6:43 am

    almeida was a disappointment….zero takedown defense and an obvious lack of physical strength(even when she got a takedown herself,she was quickly reversed)…her straight right hand looked like it had pop but she went to it too late….lots of holes in her physicality and game….one of the big differences between the ufc and the lower echelon orgs is that athletes in the ufc are nearly all physical and powerful…btw,i saw nothing particularly special from de lima…she`s physically strong but appeared to be fading in the 3rd…I see her as a middle rung fighter…will win some and lose some…

    Darren till and tom breese look like potential solid additions to the ufc(if both continue to win,that could be a fantastic showdown down the road)…not as impressed with dalby(he was lucky to nick that decision and his reaction to it spoke volumes)….bektic looked strong but I`m not ready to anoint him just yet…he`s aggressive and strong but he`s short and is very hittable….

    I feel a little bad for lentz…he`s an upper level fighter who just doesn`t match up that well with a long and diverse oliveira….I mean,he`s good enough to give him real trouble but he`s not the better fighter….lentz will beat more than his share…oliveira just isn`t one of them…oliveira can look like a future champ and you`d think on any given night can beat anyone…but he has a history of coming up short vs the elite level guys at the top of their game…

    formiga is solid and pretty well rounded….

    condit looked good…brings so much to the table…if he wasn`t so susceptible to wrestlers,he`d probably have won an “actual” championship already…..I wouldn`t want to ever fight condit in a 5 rounder… ….with gsp retired,he “could” win a title but will always struggle with uber-physical wrestlers…alves nose was utterly destroyed and he wasn`t complaining much about the stoppage…

    really nice little card..

    • Howard Morton May 31, 2015 at 2:04 pm

      Condit did not move as well as he normally does. He stood in front of Alves and went toe to toe with him. Maybe that was the game plan or maybe the lingering affects of an ACL tear.

      Regardless, Condit won quite easily and should get a top 3 guy next. Woodley or Hendricks in a 5 round rematch or the loser of Lawler/MacDonald. If I was Condit, henceforth, I would only take 5 round fights.

      I actually think a fight between Stephan Thompson and Condit would be interesting.

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