Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night New Orleans: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 6-6 (50.0%)

Year to date: 123-69 (64.1%)

UFC FIGHT NIGHT NEW ORLEANS – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Tim Boetsch 71.8% Dan Henderson 28.2%
 Ben Rothwell 55.0% Matt Mitrione 45.0%
 Dustin Poirier 70.9% Yancy Medeiros 29.1%
 Thiago Tavares 69.1% Brian Ortega 30.9%
 Anthony Birchak 55.5% Joe Soto 44.5%
 Alex Caceres 52.6% Francisco Rivera 47.4%
 Shawn Jordan 57.3% Derrick Lewis 42.7%
 Brian Ebersole 52.0% Omari Akhmedov 48.0%
 Christos Giagos 50.8% Chris Wade 49.2%
 Joe Proctor 58.3% Justin Edwards 41.7%
 Ricardo Abreu 54.3% Jake Collier 45.7%
 Jose Quinonez 61.2% Leonardo Morales 38.8%

Only four of the favorites have a better than 60 percent chance of winning according to the model. The model likes a whopping six underdogs, and that doesn’t include Shawn Jordan, who is currently listed at even odds against Derrick Lewis. Of course, many of the betting lines are very close and it’s possible that a few of these underdogs won’t be underdogs anymore by the time the fights start.

The underdog picks here are: Ben Rothwell, Anthony Birchak, Alex Caceres, Brian Ebersole, Christos Giagos, and Jose Quinonez.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$39.81

Current bankroll: $261.11

Total investment: $543.28

Total profit: $161.11

Return on investment: 29.7%

Last week’s event was a bad one for my degenerate gambling. Only three of my 11 bets were winners, and those three were among my smallest bets. My largest bets were on Ericka Almeida, Nik Lentz, and Thiago Alves, but all three of those fighters got beaten decisively. The resulting loss of $39.81 broke what was a three-event winning streak.

For this event I have…

Jose Quinonez +150: $8.76 to win $13.14

Ben Rothwell +170: $6.40 to win $10.88

Anthony Birchak +160: $6.14 to win $9.82

Dustin Poirier -175: $4.01 to win $2.29

Christos Giagos +155: $3.77 to win $5.84

Thiago Tavares -165: $3.55 to win $2.15

Tim Boetsch -200: $2.92 to win $1.46

Jake Collier +165: $2.36 to win $3.89

Shawn Jordan -105: $2.28 to win $2.17

Brian Ebersole +120: $2.19 to win $2.63

Justin Edwards +185: $1.82 to win $3.37

Alex Caceres +110: $1.69 to win $1.86

Bets on every single fight! The bets to pay close attention to are the ones on Quinonez, Rothwell, and Birchak. If two of the three win then I’m in very good shape for the event as a whole.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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One response to “UFC Fight Night New Orleans: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton June 5, 2015 at 5:25 pm

    Bets on every fight. Bold. I like it.

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