Last event: 6-6 (50.0%)
Year to date: 123-69 (64.1%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT NEW ORLEANS – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Tim Boetsch
| Ben Rothwell
| Dustin Poirier
| Thiago Tavares
| Anthony Birchak
| Alex Caceres
| Shawn Jordan
| Brian Ebersole
| Christos Giagos
| Joe Proctor
| Ricardo Abreu
| Jose Quinonez
Only four of the favorites have a better than 60 percent chance of winning according to the model. The model likes a whopping six underdogs, and that doesn’t include Shawn Jordan, who is currently listed at even odds against Derrick Lewis. Of course, many of the betting lines are very close and it’s possible that a few of these underdogs won’t be underdogs anymore by the time the fights start.
The underdog picks here are: Ben Rothwell, Anthony Birchak, Alex Caceres, Brian Ebersole, Christos Giagos, and Jose Quinonez.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: -$39.81
Current bankroll: $261.11
Total investment: $543.28
Total profit: $161.11
Return on investment: 29.7%
Last week’s event was a bad one for my degenerate gambling. Only three of my 11 bets were winners, and those three were among my smallest bets. My largest bets were on Ericka Almeida, Nik Lentz, and Thiago Alves, but all three of those fighters got beaten decisively. The resulting loss of $39.81 broke what was a three-event winning streak.
For this event I have…
Jose Quinonez +150: $8.76 to win $13.14
Ben Rothwell +170: $6.40 to win $10.88
Anthony Birchak +160: $6.14 to win $9.82
Dustin Poirier -175: $4.01 to win $2.29
Christos Giagos +155: $3.77 to win $5.84
Thiago Tavares -165: $3.55 to win $2.15
Tim Boetsch -200: $2.92 to win $1.46
Jake Collier +165: $2.36 to win $3.89
Shawn Jordan -105: $2.28 to win $2.17
Brian Ebersole +120: $2.19 to win $2.63
Justin Edwards +185: $1.82 to win $3.37
Alex Caceres +110: $1.69 to win $1.86
Bets on every single fight! The bets to pay close attention to are the ones on Quinonez, Rothwell, and Birchak. If two of the three win then I’m in very good shape for the event as a whole.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!