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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
Last event: 6-6 (50.0%)
Year to date: 129-75 (63.2%)
When the biggest favorite on the fight card is just -200 (and that guy loses by KO in the first minute), I suppose going 6-6 on picks shouldn’t come as a surprise.
UFC 188 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Cain Velasquez||85.8%||Fabricio Werdum||14.2%|
|Gilbert Melendez||68.7%||Eddie Alvarez||31.3%|
|Kelvin Gastelum||71.8%||Nate Marquardt||28.2%|
|Yair Rodriguez||59.5%||Charles Rosa||40.5%|
|Tecia Torres||60.4%||Angela Hill||39.6%|
|Henry Cejudo||67.7%||Chico Camus||32.3%|
|Efrain Escudero||61.4%||Drew Dober||38.6%|
|Alejandro Perez||64.8%||Patrick Williams||35.2%|
|Johnny Case||73.7%||Frank Trevino||26.3%|
|Cathal Pendred||65.7%||Augusto Montano||34.3%|
|Clay Collard||64.0%||Gabriel Benitez||36.0%|
If you’re wondering, the model had Albert Tumenov with an 80.1% chance of beating Andrew Todhunter. That fight got called off as Todhunter simply couldn’t cut the weight necessary to fight on short notice.
Cathal Pendred at 65.7% probably jumps out at you. I have to admit that when I watch Pendred fight, I don’t like what I see. His hands are painfully slow and he just doesn’t appear to be as good an athlete as most guys in the UFC. Pendred’s striking statistics rate as firmly below-average, with 115 significant strikes landed, 128 absorbed, and two knockdowns absorbed. The reason he’s favored by the model is that he’s had success with takedowns (eight in three fights) and he does have a number of wins against respectable competition on his record (Che Mills, Gael Grimaud, David Bielkheden, Nico Musoke).
Augusto Montano is 15-1 and looked good against Chris Heatherly in his UFC debut, but he just hasn’t beaten the same level of opponents as Pendred. The model sees Pendred as being the higher-level fighter and having a decisive takedown advantage, which is enough to make him the favorite. I now fully expect to see Pendred get out-boxed for three rounds, only to win by unanimous decision.
The other underdogs favored by the model are Yair Rodriguez and Efrain Escudero.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$26.25
Current bankroll: $287.36
Total investment: $589.17
Total profit: $187.36
Return on investment: 31.8%
Even though last week’s picks went just 6-6, things went very well for my degenerate gambling. My top three bets – underdogs Jose Quinonez, Ben Rothwell, and Anthony Birchak – all emerged victorious. That healed most of the damage done by the big losses the week before.
For this event I have…
Cathal Pendred +140: $11.27 to win $15.78
Yair Rodriguez +195: $10.16 to win $19.62
Efrain Escudero +135: $7.85 to win $10.60
Chico Camus +900: $5.30 to win $47.70
Cain Velasquez -480: $3.44 to win $0.72
Gilbert Melendez -165: $3.31 to win $2.01
Angela Hill +255: $3.05 to win $7.78
Nate Marquardt +400: $1.84 to win $7.36
Frank Trevino +400: $1.37 to win $5.48
Gabriel Benitez +225: $1.31 to win $2.95
Alejandro Perez -165: $1.16 to win $0.70
Bets on every fight again! Unsurprisingly, the three biggest bets are on the underdogs the model picked to win outright – Pendred, Rodriguez, and Escudero.
No, I don’t have much faith in Chico Camus’s ability to beat Henry Cejudo. I’ll even go so far as to say that the model underrates Cejudo, since it doesn’t know about his gold medal in freestyle wrestling. But the odds are just crazy here. If Camus only needs to win over 10 percent of the time to return value, then sure, I’ll take a stab.
When I bet on Chris Weidman against Vitor Belfort, I was asked why I would bet him straight and not put him in a parlay. Now I’m betting on Cain Velasquez straight. For me, it’s all about the probabilities. Using parlays doesn’t increase the expected rate of return, it just mitigates risk. With my system, risk is already mitigated with the bet sizes recommended by the Kelly criterion. You’ll notice that my bet on Velasquez is relatively small. That was true when I bet on Weidman as well.
DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you place are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!