Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Berlin: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

No predictions post for this weekend’s UFC event, which I believe probably has minimal interest from MMA fans in general, and much less interest than tonight’s Kimbo-Shamrock Bellator match. That’s despite this event featuring a championship fight in the main event, which I will talk about briefly.

2015 PICKS

Last event: 7-4 (63.6%)

Year to date: 136-79 (63.3%)

The 7-4 record in picks for UFC 188 last week is decent, but it’s better than it appears, as my model was 3-0 in underdog picks. Betting favorites went just 4-7.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT BERLIN – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Joanna Jedrzejczyk 67.4% Jessica Penne 32.6%
 Dennis Siver 64.1% Tatsuya Kawajiri 35.9%
 Steven Kennedy 54.7% Peter Sobotta 45.3%
 Lukasz Sajewski 54.9% Nick Hein 45.1%
 Makwan Amirkhani 70.5% Masio Fullen 29.5%
 Mairbek Taisumov 58.8% Alan Patrick 41.2%
 Arnold Allen 58.1% Alan Omer 41.9%
 Niklas Backstrom 54.8% Noad Lahat 45.2%
 Scott Askham 58.4% Antonio Dos Santos 41.6%
 Piotr Hallmann 69.8% Magomed Mustafaev 30.2%
 Taylor Lapilus 59.2% Yuta Sasaki 40.8%

There’s a lot of disparity between my model’s estimates and the betting lines for this event. It begins with the main event, where my model has UFC strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk as a 2-1 favorite while the betting lines currently have her closer to 8-1. I think the betting lines are badly inflated here. If Jedrzejczyk had fought Penne before humiliating Carla Esparza, would she have really been listed as an 8-1 favorite? I highly doubt it.

With that said, I do expect Jedrzejczyk to successfully defend her title, and she should have a massive advantage standing, as her overall striking technique is something a lot of men in the UFC could learn from. Even so, Penne is excellent on the ground, and if she’s able to do what Esparza couldn’t – take Jedrzejczyk down – we very well could see an upset here.

Underdog picks for this event include: Steven Kennedy, Lukasz Sajewski, Arnold Allen, and Taylor Lapilus.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$29.48

Current bankroll: $316.84

Total investment: $639.23

Total profit: $216.84

Return on investment: 33.9%

Only four out of 11 bets were winners last week, but fortunately, my top three bets all came through: Cathal Pendred, Yair Rodriguez, and Efrain Escudero. Chico Camus also put up a terrific effort as a +900 underdog in a loss to Henry Cejudo.

For this event I have…

Taylor Lapilus +230: $12.35 to win $28.41

Piotr Hallmann -115: $9.42 to win $8.19

Arnold Allen +170: $8.77 to win $14.91

Steven Kennedy +210: $8.64 to win $18.14

Lukasz Sajewski +145: $5.45 to win $7.90

Jessica Penne +550: $4.46 to win $24.53

Noad Lahat +185: $3.22 to win $5.96

Antonio Dos Santos +190: $2.12 to win $4.03

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights! (And by enjoy the fights, I mean Bellator, since you’re more likely to watch those fights this week.)

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2 responses to “UFC Fight Night Berlin: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton June 19, 2015 at 5:56 pm

    Taylor Lapilus is the key bet. If he wins and the other bets lose you would still almost break even. The scouting report says that Sasaki is a better grappler and Lapilus is a better striker, especially at range.

    Good luck.

  2. Howard Morton June 21, 2015 at 11:21 am

    Lapilus might be a legitimate prospect.

    Siver showed horrible fight IQ by not sprawling and instead going for guillotine chokes.

    I will be interested to see who the UFC pairs JJ up with for her next title defense. I don’t know if any of the girls at 115 are ready for her yet. I think she could be a co-main event on a PPV card or a FOX card.

    Was there any drug testing for this card? I have a feeling there was little to no regulations for this card. I guess if a fighter in the UFC wants to use PED’s they can hide in Europe.

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