- @bangkokfrog Thank you and good luck! 10 months ago
- @jf757 Model favors Choi and Gastelum to win those fights 10 months ago
Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
No predictions post for this weekend’s UFC event, which I believe probably has minimal interest from MMA fans in general, and much less interest than tonight’s Kimbo-Shamrock Bellator match. That’s despite this event featuring a championship fight in the main event, which I will talk about briefly.
Last event: 7-4 (63.6%)
Year to date: 136-79 (63.3%)
The 7-4 record in picks for UFC 188 last week is decent, but it’s better than it appears, as my model was 3-0 in underdog picks. Betting favorites went just 4-7.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BERLIN – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Joanna Jedrzejczyk||67.4%||Jessica Penne||32.6%|
|Dennis Siver||64.1%||Tatsuya Kawajiri||35.9%|
|Steven Kennedy||54.7%||Peter Sobotta||45.3%|
|Lukasz Sajewski||54.9%||Nick Hein||45.1%|
|Makwan Amirkhani||70.5%||Masio Fullen||29.5%|
|Mairbek Taisumov||58.8%||Alan Patrick||41.2%|
|Arnold Allen||58.1%||Alan Omer||41.9%|
|Niklas Backstrom||54.8%||Noad Lahat||45.2%|
|Scott Askham||58.4%||Antonio Dos Santos||41.6%|
|Piotr Hallmann||69.8%||Magomed Mustafaev||30.2%|
|Taylor Lapilus||59.2%||Yuta Sasaki||40.8%|
There’s a lot of disparity between my model’s estimates and the betting lines for this event. It begins with the main event, where my model has UFC strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk as a 2-1 favorite while the betting lines currently have her closer to 8-1. I think the betting lines are badly inflated here. If Jedrzejczyk had fought Penne before humiliating Carla Esparza, would she have really been listed as an 8-1 favorite? I highly doubt it.
With that said, I do expect Jedrzejczyk to successfully defend her title, and she should have a massive advantage standing, as her overall striking technique is something a lot of men in the UFC could learn from. Even so, Penne is excellent on the ground, and if she’s able to do what Esparza couldn’t – take Jedrzejczyk down – we very well could see an upset here.
Underdog picks for this event include: Steven Kennedy, Lukasz Sajewski, Arnold Allen, and Taylor Lapilus.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$29.48
Current bankroll: $316.84
Total investment: $639.23
Total profit: $216.84
Return on investment: 33.9%
Only four out of 11 bets were winners last week, but fortunately, my top three bets all came through: Cathal Pendred, Yair Rodriguez, and Efrain Escudero. Chico Camus also put up a terrific effort as a +900 underdog in a loss to Henry Cejudo.
For this event I have…
Taylor Lapilus +230: $12.35 to win $28.41
Piotr Hallmann -115: $9.42 to win $8.19
Arnold Allen +170: $8.77 to win $14.91
Steven Kennedy +210: $8.64 to win $18.14
Lukasz Sajewski +145: $5.45 to win $7.90
Jessica Penne +550: $4.46 to win $24.53
Noad Lahat +185: $3.22 to win $5.96
Antonio Dos Santos +190: $2.12 to win $4.03
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights! (And by enjoy the fights, I mean Bellator, since you’re more likely to watch those fights this week.)