Apologies for the lack of content recently. I’m a little burned out on MMA at the moment and have been paying more attention to other sports-related things. There’s a two-week gap between this and the next UFC event, which will probably be enough for me to get back into it more. It helps that the next UFC event is UFC 189, which I won’t need help getting motivated for.
With that said, there is one very outstanding fight as the main event of this show: Lyoto Machida vs. Yoel Romero. I’m surprised that Machida is back so soon after being decimated by Luke Rockhold, but Machida just turned 37, so perhaps he senses that he doesn’t have much time left to make a title run.
Last event: 6-5 (54.5%)
Year to date: 142-84 (62.8%)
I have to say, it’s a little surprising to see my picks percentage down a bit from last year. The statistical model has been so successful at degenerate gambling that I would have figured the straight-up picks percentage would be pretty high as well. Perhaps there have just been more upsets than usual this year?
UFC FIGHT NIGHT HOLLYWOOD – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Lyoto Machida
| Lorenz Larkin
| Eddie Gordon
||Antonio Carlos Junior
| Thiago Santos
| Levan Makashvili
| Alex Oliveira
| Leandro Silva
| Tony Sims
| Sirwan Kakai
With the model being very high on Machida and just lukewarm on Romero in recent fights, I didn’t expect to see the model basically agree with the betting lines on this one. Machida and Romero are actually a fairly even statistical match. Romero gets the advantage in takedowns, and figures to enter as the significantly bigger and stronger man. Machida gets the advantage in striking, particularly in striking defense. Knockout power is about even. The biggest edge for Machida is his level of competition, as he’s been facing the very best fighters in the world. Romero has faced some tough opponents, but nothing like Chris Weidman, Luke Rockhold, or even Jon Jones.
Underdog picks for this event include Eddie Gordon, Levan Makashvili, Tony Sims, and Sirwan Kakai.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$19.19
Current bankroll: $336.03
Total investment: $693.66
Total profit: $236.03
Return on investment: 34.0%
Last week was another winning one for the model, mostly thanks to Taylor Lapilus and his victory over Yuta Sasaki in Berlin. The model also got a big win with +170 underdog Arnold Allen.
For this event I have…
Sirwan Kakai +115: $16.07 to win $18.48
Eddie Gordon +165: $10.63 to win $17.54
Levan Makashvili +160: $5.51 to win $8.82
Tony Sims +120: $5.27 to win $6.32
Lewis Gonzalez +130: $2.08 to win $2.70
Santiago Ponzinibbio +185: $1.65 to win $3.05
I made an executive decision to reduce bet sizes for this event because of the shorter slate. The model was built for UFC events with 12 or more fights, but this event only has nine fights total. That causes the Kelly criterion to recommend some pretty high bet sizes, and I’ve decided it’s probably best to reduce exposure to this event. This way, I’m placing about 12 percent of the bankroll at risk (instead of the 24 percent recommended by the model), which I think is reasonable for an event with six bets.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my picks in any serious way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!