Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Hollywood: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

Apologies for the lack of content recently. I’m a little burned out on MMA at the moment and have been paying more attention to other sports-related things. There’s a two-week gap between this and the next UFC event, which will probably be enough for me to get back into it more. It helps that the next UFC event is UFC 189, which I won’t need help getting motivated for.

With that said, there is one very outstanding fight as the main event of this show: Lyoto Machida vs. Yoel Romero. I’m surprised that Machida is back so soon after being decimated by Luke Rockhold, but Machida just turned 37, so perhaps he senses that he doesn’t have much time left to make a title run.

2015 PICKS

Last event: 6-5 (54.5%)

Year to date: 142-84 (62.8%)

I have to say, it’s a little surprising to see my picks percentage down a bit from last year. The statistical model has been so successful at degenerate gambling that I would have figured the straight-up picks percentage would be pretty high as well. Perhaps there have just been more upsets than usual this year?

UFC FIGHT NIGHT HOLLYWOOD – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Lyoto Machida 66.6% Yoel Romero 33.4%
 Lorenz Larkin 59.1% Santiago Ponzinibbio 40.9%
 Eddie Gordon 61.9% Antonio Carlos Junior 38.1%
 Thiago Santos 64.7% Steve Bosse 35.3%
 Levan Makashvili 53.7% Hacran Dias 46.3%
 Alex Oliveira 75.0% Joe Merritt 25.0%
 Leandro Silva 50.3% Lewis Gonzalez 49.7%
 Tony Sims 58.5% Steve Montgomery 41.5%
 Sirwan Kakai 72.7% Danny Martinez 27.3%

With the model being very high on Machida and just lukewarm on Romero in recent fights, I didn’t expect to see the model basically agree with the betting lines on this one. Machida and Romero are actually a fairly even statistical match. Romero gets the advantage in takedowns, and figures to enter as the significantly bigger and stronger man. Machida gets the advantage in striking, particularly in striking defense. Knockout power is about even. The biggest edge for Machida is his level of competition, as he’s been facing the very best fighters in the world. Romero has faced some tough opponents, but nothing like Chris Weidman, Luke Rockhold, or even Jon Jones.

Underdog picks for this event include Eddie Gordon, Levan Makashvili, Tony Sims, and Sirwan Kakai.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$19.19

Current bankroll: $336.03

Total investment: $693.66

Total profit: $236.03

Return on investment: 34.0%

Last week was another winning one for the model, mostly thanks to Taylor Lapilus and his victory over Yuta Sasaki in Berlin. The model also got a big win with +170 underdog Arnold Allen.

For this event I have…

Sirwan Kakai +115: $16.07 to win $18.48

Eddie Gordon +165: $10.63 to win $17.54

Levan Makashvili +160: $5.51 to win $8.82

Tony Sims +120: $5.27 to win $6.32

Lewis Gonzalez +130: $2.08 to win $2.70

Santiago Ponzinibbio +185: $1.65 to win $3.05

I made an executive decision to reduce bet sizes for this event because of the shorter slate. The model was built for UFC events with 12 or more fights, but this event only has nine fights total. That causes the Kelly criterion to recommend some pretty high bet sizes, and I’ve decided it’s probably best to reduce exposure to this event. This way, I’m placing about 12 percent of the bankroll at risk (instead of the 24 percent recommended by the model), which I think is reasonable for an event with six bets.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my picks in any serious way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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9 responses to “UFC Fight Night Hollywood: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton June 26, 2015 at 2:56 pm

    I really like the main event between Machida and Romero. I think Machida wins, but a Romero win by stoppage would not suprise me.

    I like your bets. I think Eddie Gordan is in desperation mode and will get the KO victory.

    I do not know anything about Sirwan Kakai so I will just have to trust you on that one.

    July 1st is right around the corner so it will be interesting to see how the fighters perform on this fight night card. They have to be scared of using steroids and diuretics by now so maybe we will see some more “mysterious” performances?

    • David Williams June 27, 2015 at 10:36 pm

      I’ll definitely be curious to see what the impact of the new drug testing is going forward, especially because fighters are cutting more weight than ever. Larkin at 170, Machida/Romero at 185, Gordon/Carlos Junior at 185… it’s crazy.

      • Howard Morton June 28, 2015 at 4:29 pm

        Larkin looked like he had negative body fat %. I bet he struggles to make 170 next time out.

        Gordan and Carlos Junior looked massive. I bet they were both well over 200 pounds when they fought.

        The weight cutting has gone too far in the UFC and I think a lot of guys are going to start popping after July 1st. In fact, I hope guys start popping because I consider PED’s to be cheating. I want to know who the best fighters are, not who has the best chemist.

  2. r.mattioli June 27, 2015 at 4:29 pm

    according to brian stann,they`re using the smaller cage tonight….if anybody sees this,take it into consideration when wagering(particularly on props)….

    • David Williams June 27, 2015 at 10:34 pm

      It definitely seemed to have an effect on Machida, who was constantly putting his back against the cage and struggling to create the space he wanted.

      • Howard Morton June 28, 2015 at 4:35 pm

        I was rooting for Machida, but he has only himself to blame. He is so inactive and his speed is not there anymore to counter effectively.

        Machida v. Hendo 2, book it for a “Fight Night” co main event. No use in putting those guys in a 5 rounder.

  3. r.mattioli July 7, 2015 at 10:06 am

    I have to say I`m a bit anxious to get the conversation started on the upcoming ufc slate(3 events in roughly 11 days including either the highly anticipated validation or destruction of the conor McGregor persona)…….

    I noticed that the reneau/holly hom line has drastically dropped(reneau went from +180 to +135)…somebody out there thinks holm is a tad overrated(her last fight was less than scintillating)…

  4. r.mattioli July 7, 2015 at 4:22 pm

    err,3 events in 5 days……

  5. Howard Morton July 7, 2015 at 4:32 pm

    I think McGregor will TKO Mendes.

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