Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 189: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

I know you’ve been waiting for it… and now it’s here. Better late than never, here’s the degenerate gambler’s corner for UFC 189:

2015 PICKS

Last event: 6-3 (66.7%)

Year to date: 148-87 (63.0%)

UFC 189 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Chad Mendes 57.2% Conor McGregor 42.8%
 Rory MacDonald 71.8% Robbie Lawler 28.2%
 Dennis Bermudez 69.2% Jeremy Stephens 30.8%
 Gunnar Nelson 55.4% Brandon Thatch 44.6%
 Thomas Almeida 83.6% Brad Pickett 16.4%
 Matt Brown 61.2% Tim Means 38.8%
 Alex Garcia 69.4% Mike Swick 30.6%
 Cathal Pendred 78.2% John Howard 21.8%
 Cody Garbrandt 76.6% Henry Briones 23.4%
 Louis Smolka 53.7% Neil Seery 46.3%
 Cody Pfister 51.4% Yosdenis Cedeno 48.6%

Chad Mendes opened at -130 on the sportsbooks and the statistical model agrees with that line. Of course, since then there have been a tremendous number of bets on Conor McGregor, shifting the line on Mendes all the way to +168. It’s possible that the legions of Irish fans will give McGregor a home advantage of sorts in the MGM Grand Garden Arena, making him less of an underdog than the model anticipates.

The model also sees Rory MacDonald as a solid favorite over Robbie Lawler despite losing their first fight. That’s a very intriguing co-main event that’s flying under the radar.

Underdog picks for this event include: Mendes and Gunnar Nelson. The model also likes Cody Pfister by a very narrow margin, but my official pick is Cedeno due to the relatively strong betting line of -200.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$4.93

Current bankroll: $340.96

Total investment: $734.87

Total profit: $240.96

Return on investment: 32.8%

The last event was a strange one, in which my biggest bet was on the unheralded Sirwan Kakai. Fortunately, Kakai was able to out-point Danny Martinez and help me win a small amount for the event two weeks ago.

For this event I have…

Cathal Pendred -110: $26.43 to win $24.03

Chad Mendes +168: $10.37 to win $17.42

Gunnar Nelson +160: $8.48 to win $13.57

Rory MacDonald -165: $7.55 to win $4.58

Cody Pfister +185: $7.49 to win $13.86

Mike Swick +355: $2.78 to win $9.87

Henry Briones +540: $2.27 to win $12.26

Cathal Pendred… here we go again. The model loved Cathal Pendred when he fought Sean Spencer, and Pendred got away with a terrible decision. The model loved Pendred again against Augusto Montano, and Pendred was able to grind out another decision victory. Now the model loves Pendred for a third time this year. Hopefully the Irish fans can help propel him to victory against John Howard.

Gunnar Nelson makes me nervous, since he got lit up by Rick Story and now faces terrifying striker Brandon Thatch. I’m hoping that Nelson will only need a single takedown to then eventually finish by submission. If Nelson can’t get the takedown then it’s hard to see this fight going his way.

I don’t actually like the bets on Swick or Briones, but the model says to do it, and it’s the same model that’s grown a $100 bankroll into $340 in half a year. So I’m placing the bets and fully expecting both fighters to lose.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets in any serious way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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3 responses to “UFC 189: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton July 11, 2015 at 2:53 pm

    No doubt about it. This fight will be a home game for McGregor. That does not garauntee victory, but it does not hurt his chances. He did look bad at the weigh in’s though.

    I wish I could go back in time and tail your bets since January. Very impressive results. Do you think the bank roll will continue to grow at such high levels?

  2. r.mattioli July 11, 2015 at 11:20 pm

    I`m exhausted…best main card these eyes have seen….i couldn`t be happier for lawler…the guy literally gutted out that win….McGregor proved that you stand at distance with him,and you`re going to have real problems…I thought that mendes fought a similar fight vs aldo…he used his takedowns here much more than vs aldo…but agains he had a tendency to stand on the outside way too much…..
    Frankie edgar will give McGregor more trouble than aldo(he won`t stand flat-footed on the outside)….I think McGregor is a better pure stand-up fighter than aldo…

    and nobody`s talking about Bermudez/stevens and brown/means…..and gunnar nelson`s right hand?…where in hell did that come from?……

    insane……just insane….dana must be orgasmic…

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