Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Glasgow – Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

I won’t be providing a lot of commentary for this event, the fourth in eight days for the UFC.

2015 PICKS

Last event: 9-3 (75.0%)

Year to date: 172-96 (64.2%)

UFC FIGHT NIGHT GLASGOW – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Thales Leites 53.2% Michael Bisping 46.8%
 Ross Pearson 55.2% Evan Dunham 44.8%
 Joseph Duffy 56.0% Ivan Jorge 44.0%
 Joanne Calderwood 64.4% Cortney Casey 35.6%
 Leon Edwards 63.3% Pawel Pawlak 36.7%
 Steven Ray 66.6% Leonardo Mafra 33.4%
 Patrick Holohan 59.1% Vaughan Lee 40.9%
 Ilir Latifi 50.7% Hans Stringer 49.3%
 Mickael Lebout 52.1% Teemu Packalen 47.9%
 Robert Whiteford 67.4% Paul Redmond 32.6%
 Jimmie Rivera 68.2% Marcus Brimage 31.8%
 Chris De La Rocha 60.4% Daniel Omielanczuk 39.6%

The one thing I do want to talk about is the Joe Duffy-Ivan Jorge fight. Duffy is a massive favorite, currently listed at -800 odds to beat Jorge. As far as I can tell, there are two main reasons for this. One is that Duffy looks to have very clean, crisp technique, which he displayed in a quick win over Jake Lindsey in his UFC debut. The other is that Duffy has a win over the notorious one, Conor McGregor.

I find this to be, at best, reckless on the part of the betting public. As skilled as Duffy may be, he still enters this fight at 1-0 in the UFC, with the win coming against Jake Lindsey. Before that, he scored a number of wins against quality competition in Cage Warriors, but also lost a fight to Ivan Musardo by guillotine choke. Yes, Duffy was beating Musardo handily before being submitted, but it’s a loss nonetheless. My point is that Duffy hasn’t exactly been beating the top guys in the world.

…Except McGregor, who Duffy beat by submission in the first minute. But that was back when McGregor didn’t know the ground game at all. You know who else submitted Conor McGregor? Artemij Sitenkov, a Lithuanian fighter currently competing in the flyweight division with a professional record of 15-13.

I don’t say this to suggest that Duffy is going to lose to Jorge, because I don’t think that will happen. I’m simply arguing that Duffy doesn’t deserve to be an 8-1 favorite to win… not even close.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$20.72

Current bankroll: $293.45

Total investment: $944.57

Total profit: $193.45

Return on investment: 20.5%

It’s a rare three-event losing streak for the statistical model, in which time my overall ROI has declined from 33% to 20.5%. The worst thing to do in this situation is overreact – downswings happen and the overall record of the model is still very good.

For this event I have…

Ivan Jorge +550: $11.89 to win $65.40

Chris De La Rocha +130: $9.94 to win $12.92

Jimmie Rivera -125: $9.25 to win $7.40

Hans Stringer +200: $7.33 to win $14.66

Robert Whiteford -145: $5.87 to win $4.05

Evan Dunham +200: $4.83 to win $9.66

Pawel Pawlak +290: $4.07 to win $11.80

Cortney Casey +290: $3.60 to win $10.44

Mickael Lebout +115: $2.72 to win $3.13

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets in any way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

Advertisements

6 responses to “UFC Fight Night Glasgow – Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton July 17, 2015 at 4:29 pm

    I almost tweeted you earlier in the day how ridiculous it is that Duffy is a -800 favorite. Anderson Silva was only -200 against Vitor Belfort and he is arguably the greatest fighter ever. Hopefully for Duffy backers he is not related to the other Duffee. LOL.

    As far as the main event goes it is kind of weird that a British fighter is headlining an event in Glasgow, Scotland. Bisping will get a lot of boo’s.

    As someone of Scottish ancestry I hope the country can develop it’s own “Conor McGregor”, but the chances of that happening are very slim. As with most European countries the “toughest stock” left for the “New World”. Rory McDonald is of Scottish ancestry and he came very close to stopping Robbie Lawler at UFC 189, but that is another topic entirely.

    Good luck and may the Force be with you. LOL.

  2. r.mattioli July 17, 2015 at 4:37 pm

    i see your point…actually,duffy is by far the primary draw(for me) on this card…the times I`ve seen him he performed impressively……….but jorge isn`t a walkover and those odds are way inflated……may put a six pack on Jorge just because the odds are so skewed….

    totally expect duffy to win but hey +660?…..

    I`m waiting for the barao/rousey cards…lots of solid stuff to wager on there…

    btw…took a small flyer on koreshnikov in bellator tonight at +130…excellent pick `em fight… best fight of the weekend..

  3. r.mattioli July 17, 2015 at 4:40 pm

    err,koreshkov(was thinking of the assault rifle)…lol

  4. Nick July 24, 2015 at 4:21 pm

    Fox 16 quick picks? =)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: