I won’t be providing a lot of commentary for this event, the fourth in eight days for the UFC.
Last event: 9-3 (75.0%)
Year to date: 172-96 (64.2%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT GLASGOW – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Thales Leites
| Ross Pearson
| Joseph Duffy
| Joanne Calderwood
| Leon Edwards
| Steven Ray
| Patrick Holohan
| Ilir Latifi
| Mickael Lebout
| Robert Whiteford
| Jimmie Rivera
| Chris De La Rocha
The one thing I do want to talk about is the Joe Duffy-Ivan Jorge fight. Duffy is a massive favorite, currently listed at -800 odds to beat Jorge. As far as I can tell, there are two main reasons for this. One is that Duffy looks to have very clean, crisp technique, which he displayed in a quick win over Jake Lindsey in his UFC debut. The other is that Duffy has a win over the notorious one, Conor McGregor.
I find this to be, at best, reckless on the part of the betting public. As skilled as Duffy may be, he still enters this fight at 1-0 in the UFC, with the win coming against Jake Lindsey. Before that, he scored a number of wins against quality competition in Cage Warriors, but also lost a fight to Ivan Musardo by guillotine choke. Yes, Duffy was beating Musardo handily before being submitted, but it’s a loss nonetheless. My point is that Duffy hasn’t exactly been beating the top guys in the world.
…Except McGregor, who Duffy beat by submission in the first minute. But that was back when McGregor didn’t know the ground game at all. You know who else submitted Conor McGregor? Artemij Sitenkov, a Lithuanian fighter currently competing in the flyweight division with a professional record of 15-13.
I don’t say this to suggest that Duffy is going to lose to Jorge, because I don’t think that will happen. I’m simply arguing that Duffy doesn’t deserve to be an 8-1 favorite to win… not even close.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: -$20.72
Current bankroll: $293.45
Total investment: $944.57
Total profit: $193.45
Return on investment: 20.5%
It’s a rare three-event losing streak for the statistical model, in which time my overall ROI has declined from 33% to 20.5%. The worst thing to do in this situation is overreact – downswings happen and the overall record of the model is still very good.
For this event I have…
Ivan Jorge +550: $11.89 to win $65.40
Chris De La Rocha +130: $9.94 to win $12.92
Jimmie Rivera -125: $9.25 to win $7.40
Hans Stringer +200: $7.33 to win $14.66
Robert Whiteford -145: $5.87 to win $4.05
Evan Dunham +200: $4.83 to win $9.66
Pawel Pawlak +290: $4.07 to win $11.80
Cortney Casey +290: $3.60 to win $10.44
Mickael Lebout +115: $2.72 to win $3.13
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets in any way. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!