Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC on Fox Chicago: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

Apologies for getting this post out somewhat late. I’ve been VERY busy focused on other things so I can only provide the bare minimum of coverage for this fight card.

Good thing I have a model that tells me who to pick and who to bet on… although it’s on its worst losing streak since I debuted it at the beginning of the year. Let’s snap that streak with this UFC on Fox event.

2015 PICKS

Last event: 9-3 (75.0%)

Year to date: 181-100 (64.4%)

UFC ON FOX CHICAGO – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 T.J. Dillashaw 71.6% Renan Barao 28.4%
 Miesha Tate 50.1% Jessica Eye 49.9%
 Edson Barboza 67.7% Paul Felder 32.3%
 Joe Lauzon 51.7% Takanori Gomi 48.3%
 Tom Lawlor 71.0% Gian Villante 29.0%
 Danny Castillo 51.4% Jim Miller 48.6%
 Kenny Robertson 57.6% Ben Saunders 42.4%
 Bryan Caraway 53.7% Eddie Wineland 46.3%
 Daron Cruickshank 59.5% James Krause 40.5%
 Ramsey Nijem 80.4% Andrew Holbrook 19.6%
 Jessamyn Duke 59.2% Elizabeth Phillips 40.8%
 Zak Cummings 50.8% Dominique Steele 49.2%

It’s amazing how much the public opinion of T.J. Dillashaw and Renan Barao has flipped. When they first fought, Dillashaw was a 7-1 underdog and considered a long shot to win (not by me, but by most people). After Dillashaw’s one-sided beatdown of Barao at UFC 173, Barao’s fainting and injury prior to weighing in at UFC 177, and Barao struggling in a win over Mitch Gagnon, Dillashaw is now the solid favorite to win the rematch at -225. The model agrees: Dillashaw is likely to defend his title successfully.

It sees Miesha Tate vs. Jessica Eye as a coin flip. It’s an interesting fight because Eye should be the better striker, but she’s only fought fellow strikers in the UFC (Leslie Smith, Alexis Davis, Sarah Kaufman). This will be Eye’s first UFC fight against a wrestler. If she can defend Tate’s takedowns, I like her chances, but that’s easier said than done.

I’m hyped for Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder. Felder looked terrific in a knockout win over Danny Castillo in his last fight, so he has some hype behind him right now. Barboza looked less good in a loss to Michael Johnson, and could be considered a “post-hype” fighter, somebody whose hype has cooled off considerably. The model has Barboza a 2-1 favorite in what should be a striking battle.

It also gives Takanori Gomi a much better chance of winning than the odds would suggest. Gomi has been around forever; he was once the #1 lightweight in the world but now I’ve seen very little excitement for this match against Joe Lauzon, even from a nostalgic standpoint. Gomi’s striking defense and ground game are a mess, so it’s most likely that Lauzon will find a way to submit him at some point. But Gomi should be the better striker, even as far past his prime as he is.

The model deviates wildly from the betting lines on Tom Lawlor, Ramsey Nijem, and Dominique Steele. Lawlor has been on the shelf for a long time now, but has strong Fight Metric statistics, as does Nijem. Nijem makes me really nervous because it seems like he falls apart so easily when he fights. Steele is making his UFC debut, but I can’t figure out what Cummings has done to earn his status as a 3-1 favorite.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$12.59

Current bankroll: $280.86

Total investment: $1004.07

Total profit: $180.86

Return on investment: 18.0%

The model had a few wins at last week’s event from Glasgow, but the biggest bets were on losers Ivan Jorge and Chris De La Rocha, neither of whom lasted long in their respective fights.

For this event I have…

Tom Lawlor +185: $6.39 to win $11.82

Ramsey Nijem -135: $6.04 to win $4.47

Dominique Steele +290: $2.39 to win $6.93

Jessamyn Duke +145: $2.33 to win $3.38

Takanori Gomi +295: $2.30 to win $6.79

Edson Barboza -130: $1.79 to win $1.38

Jessica Eye +185: $1.52 to win $2.81

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

Advertisements

One response to “UFC on Fox Chicago: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Nick July 25, 2015 at 5:01 pm

    wow Tom Lawlor! awesome job David.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: