Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 190 Prediction: Bethe Correia vs. Ronda Rousey

The selection of Bethe Correia as a challenger to face Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight championship is a sign that the UFC is running out of contenders in the division.

In two and a half years since debuting in the UFC, Rousey has already defeated Liz Carmouche, Miesha Tate, Sara McMann, Alexis Davis, and Cat Zingano. Rousey defeated McMann, Davis, and Zingano in a combined 96 seconds. Only once has Rousey been out of the first round, but her eventual third-round submission victory over Tate was still a very one-sided fight.

Next up is Correia, whose UFC resume includes three victories: a split decision win over Julie Kedzie, a unanimous decision win over Jessamyn Duke, and a TKO win against Shayna Baszler in her last fight. The wins over Duke and Baszler were part of a campaign by Correia to take out the “four horsewomen”: Duke, Baszler, Marina Shafir, and Rousey.

I always found the idea of defeating the four horsewomen to be a silly angle. Duke is clearly towards the bottom of the UFC women’s bantamweight division; she’s 1-3 in the UFC and just lost to Elizabeth Phillips. Baszler has been cut from the roster after one-sided losses to Correia and Amanda Nunes. Shafir is 1-2 in MMA after consecutive 37-second TKO losses and might not ever make it into the UFC. Comparing these fighters to Rousey is laughable.

And that’s the problem. The best argument Correia can make for deserving a title shot is that she’s defeated two of Rousey’s friends. Those wins are only enough to place Correia in the middle tier of the division, and now she’s fighting Rousey, who has run through the top tier of the division like a hot knife through butter.

Generally speaking, the best chance a fighter like Correia can have of beating Rousey is to win by sudden knockout, but Correia hasn’t shown the ability to win fights that way. Seven of her nine wins have gone the distance, and her TKO win over Baszler was due to an accumulation of strikes. It’s safe to say that Correia won’t be landing the same volume of strikes on Rousey.

In the end, I would say that Correia’s best chance of winning this fight is if Rousey injures herself while throwing Correia to the ground. If that doesn’t illustrate how lopsided this fight is, then I don’t know what would. Of course, I could mention the current betting lines: Rousey the favorite at -1700, Correia the underdog at +1100.

Pick: Ronda Rousey by submission

OTHER PICKS

  • Nothing says “PRIDE NEVER DIE” like having Mauricio “Shogun” Rua battle Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in the co-main event of a UFC pay-per-view in 2015. There’s almost no chance this rematch can live up to the quality of their amazing fight from ten years ago. Both fighters are fragile at this point but Shogun still has better knockout power. Shogun by TKO.
  • Fernando Bruno over Glaico Franca.
  • Dileno Lopes over Reginaldo Vieira.
  • Speaking of fragile, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is on this fight card as well, and is taking on Stefan Struve. Nogueira once won fights with an incredible chin and a tricky submission game. At this point, Nogueira’s chin is completely gone and his submission game has mostly been figured out. This pick would have been unthinkable years ago, but… Struve by TKO.
  • I did a double-take when I saw that Soa Palelei was the favorite against Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. I understand it: after knockout losses to Andrei Arlovski and Frank Mir, Silva is very hard to trust. Palelei has knockout power for sure, but Silva really is the more skilled fighter, both standing and on the ground. I see this as a “buy low” opportunity. Bigfoot by TKO.
  • WSOF champion Jessica Aguilar claims that she’s the true champion of the women’s strawweight division. The UFC is giving her the opportunity to prove it by having her face Claudia Gadelha in her UFC debut. It’s nothing against Aguilar, but I see Gadelha as the fighter to eventually beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk… so I’m not going to pick her to lose now. Gadelha by decision.
  • Neil Magny’s finally getting the step up in competition I’ve been calling for as he’s set to face Demian Maia. Maia is likely in the twilight of his career but he’s still an exceptional grappler. Magny should have a huge advantage standing, but his takedown defense is questionable, and he did get submitted by Sergio Moraes a couple years ago. It’s close, but… Maia by submission.
  • My statistical model hates Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante, a slugger who has consistently been out-struck and out-wrestled in his recent career. Feijao got dominated by Ryan Bader, who took him down with relative ease last year. Patrick Cummins isn’t Bader, but he’s still a capable wrestler who I expect to ground and pound Feijao for three rounds. Cummins by decision.
  • Warlley Alves over Nordine Taleb.
  • Leandro Issa over Iuri Alcantara, who never did figure out how to defend takedowns.
  • Clint Hester over Vitor Miranda.
  • Hugo Viana over Guido Cannetti.
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9 responses to “UFC 190 Prediction: Bethe Correia vs. Ronda Rousey

  1. Howard Morton July 30, 2015 at 2:26 pm

    I bought my first “PRIDE” dvd at Best Buy about 10 years ago, maybe longer, I can’t quite remember. I think it was the card with Fedor v. Heath Herring. I had been watching the UFC for years already and was told by a guy to check out Pride.

    It’s crazy to think that some of those guys that I watched from all those crazy fights are still going at it in the UFC.

    Strolls down memory lane aside, there is no way Rua wins. He chin is beyond gone. He will get KO’d by the first decent punch landed on him.

    Are the fighters in Brazil getting tested for steroids? Rory McDonald was tested 3 times leading up to his fight at UFC 189. What gives?

    • David Williams July 30, 2015 at 10:17 pm

      Well, the UFC has talked a good game about drug testing. The UFC has tested for international events before, and has suspended more than a handful of fighters for failing drug tests. With that said, if Rousey tested positive, would the UFC really suspend her? I think it’s more likely they would keep it under wraps.

  2. Nick July 30, 2015 at 7:32 pm

    No way Rua wins? Rua is 2 to 1.

  3. r.mattioli July 30, 2015 at 7:51 pm

    I don`t want to jinx our good friend and host david,but aside from being a tad dodgy on rua over lil nog(could go either way,lil nog has much more left in the tank than big nog) and wussing out and picking “rousey itd” at -700 as a closer in about 10 parlays, we agree on pretty much everything….

    I`m a huge gadelha fan but I do think these odds are off…-440 with a return of +360?…that`s a tad high,imo given aguilar`s top game…..but,as david said,if I`m just picking a winner,gadelha`s my choice…she is absolutely a legit challenge to the polish champ…

    howard brings up an excellent point on the brazillians and ped`s….looking at and listening to “beche”,I`m having a scary cyborg flashback….they look and sound eerily similar…the talent level is night and day,but methinks theres some creative chemistry going on in south america…….that said,you could send correia into the cage with a live amphetamine i.v. drip strapped to her butt and it wouldn`t make one iota of a difference here…

    I don`t know how the ufc manages to get me excited about this mismatch backed-up by the Brazilian remake of “grumpy old men” but I guess my rousey itd prop parlays have quite a bit to do with it…I am curious to see whether this will be as easy as it seems for rousey…..I also think it might be her softest defense to date…

    can anyone even imagine an upset here?…..imo,as a guy who watched buster douglas beat Tyson,as far as upsets go,this would blow that away,imo(and put a mighy dent in my gambling stash)……

    don`t forsake me,ronda!!!

    • David Williams July 30, 2015 at 10:19 pm

      I also believe the Gadelha/Aguilar odds are off. The model has Gadelha as a -175 favorite, far from the current -440 price.

      As a quick aside, is Correia’s first name really pronounced “Betch?” I’ve heard that’s just a Rio de Janeiro accent but I’m far from being an expert on how names are pronounced in Brazil.

      • r.mattioli July 31, 2015 at 7:40 am

        that`s the way I keep hearing it pronounced…don`t go by me…I was 30 years old before I realized that England wasn`t founded by the “Engs”…..

      • Nick July 31, 2015 at 8:46 am

        Excited to see the model and the bets for tomorrow.

  4. Dft July 31, 2015 at 10:12 am

    That’s exactly how we pronounce Bethe here in Rio, Betche! =))

    I also got Shogun over Lil Nog – the guy’s 39 and he and his brother have to attend to several appointments. Big Nog’s is a commentator for PPV channel, working long hours and they give a lot of lectures.

    I guess I just don’t trust the work they do at their gym to be able to perform at a high level competition. I doubt they’re really trainning.

    On the other hand we have Shogun trainning with Rafael Cordeiro – that’s a real mismatch in terms of camping preparation.

    Agreed on all other picks, except for Vitor Miranda – I think he might be able to pull an upset against Hester. I think Vitor might be the more technical fighter.

    And just on a side note, it really is intriguing how a lot of fans here in Rio are cheering for Ronda over Bethe.

    • David Williams July 31, 2015 at 12:31 pm

      Good to know! Betche it is!

      That’s some good information on the Nogueira brothers as well. Both fighters have had so many injuries and wars in the cage and the ring that I doubt they could even do a full training camp without suffering some kind of injury.

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