Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 190: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 8-4 (66.7%)

Year to date: 189-104 (64.5%)

When there are a lot of upsets, my pick percentage goes down, but my degenerate gambling bankroll goes up. When there aren’t so many upsets, the opposite happens. So I suppose the silver lining to the losing streak I’ve been on is that my pick percentage has been steadily increasing.

UFC 190 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Ronda Rousey 78.8% Bethe Correia 21.2%
 Mauricio Rua 56.0% Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 44.0%
 Fernando Bruno 61.9% Glaico Franca 38.1%
 Dileno Lopes 55.2% Reginaldo Vieira 44.8%
 Stefan Struve 57.1% Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 42.9%
 Antonio Silva 61.8% Soa Palelei 38.2%
 Claudia Gadelha 63.1% Jessica Aguilar 36.9%
 Demian Maia 53.7% Neil Magny 46.3%
 Patrick Cummins 85.6% Rafael Cavalcante 14.4%
 Warlley Alves 53.6% Nordine Taleb 46.4%
 Leandro Issa 52.2% Iuri Alcantara 47.8%
 Clint Hester 74.6% Vitor Miranda 25.4%
 Hugo Viana 68.9% Guido Cannetti 31.1%

The estimate for Ronda Rousey – 78.8% – can be safely ignored in my opinion. Generally speaking, statistical models have difficulty forecasting events on the extreme ends of the spectrum – outliers. Rousey is a perfect example of an outlier in the MMA world. There just haven’t been enough fighters like Rousey to model. She finishes fights so quickly that the model just doesn’t have the data it needs to really understand how good she is. I think the betting lines, which have Rousey in the -1500 to -1900 range, are a better indicator in this situation.

The number that jumps off the page is Patrick Cummins at 85.6%. The model hates this matchup for Rafael “Feijao,” who was taken down seven times by Ryan Bader, and now faces another strong wrestler in Cummins. Significant strike and takedown data leans heavily towards Cummins, and Feijao doesn’t have the recent quality wins necessary to overcome that. The result is the expectation of a lopsided fight, even if Feijao still has the potential to knock Cummins out with one punch.

The model is also contrarian with Warlley Alves and Nordine Taleb. I’ve seen people saying that Alves is a good betting value, but the model thinks the opposite. Taleb has put up some good numbers as a wrestle-boxer type while Alves deserved to lose against Alan Jouban. The model still likes Alves but not for betting value.

Underdog picks for this event include: Fernando Bruno, Antonio Silva, and Leandro Issa.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$1.38

Current bankroll: $279.48

Total investment: $1026.83

Total profit: $179.48

Return on investment: 17.5%

Sadly, my losing streak extended to five events with last week’s UFC on Fox. Tom Lawlor came through with a second-round knockout of Gian Villante, but Ramsey Nijem lost by decision to Andrew Holbrook… in a decision that everybody thought should have gone to Nijem. Poor judging is nothing new, and I’ve been the beneficiary of it before, but it still stings when it goes against me.

For this event I have…

Patrick Cummins -165: $6.19 to win $3.75

Antonio Silva +175: $2.54 to win $4.45

Fernando Bruno +155: $2.27 to win $3.52

Leandro Issa +220: $1.67 to win $3.67

That’s it, just four bets for this event. There are other bets I could make, but I’ve decided to only place the bets that risk at least 0.5 percent of bankroll, as smaller bets are inconsequential in the long run.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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3 responses to “UFC 190: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Nick July 31, 2015 at 7:50 pm

    Hester looked horrible at the weigh-ins… making Miranda a live dog.

  2. r.mattioli August 2, 2015 at 4:30 pm

    good night,dave…correia as a title contender was a total shamockery….after competing in the Olympics at 154….fighting in strikeforce at 145(and asking for a retired gina carano at 145) I see no excuse for rousey not to accept a super fight vs cyborg at 140….she`s willing to undergo extensive pre-fight ped testing……

    the 135 division is laughable(the talent level compared to strawweight is putrid)…how many times can dana reinvent miesha tate?….the only fresh face left is holm…..

    unfortunately for fans, it`s obvious dana and rousey are scared to death of cyborg….apparently recycling these 135 pound posers is more lucrative than a dangerous superfight…..

    all the great boxers moved up when pickings were thin…multiple weightclass champs abound…test your greatness ronda….build your legacy…..

    gadelha looked super strong…..a Claudia//Poland rematch should be fantastic….and afterward you have multiple challngers and new talent in the division….

    • Howard Morton August 3, 2015 at 6:55 pm

      I agree. I think a fight at 140 with Cyborg and Rousey needs to happen. I think Holm can challenge Rousey too, if she stays on the outside and pops her jab.

      JJ will beat Gadelha again..

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