Last event: 8-4 (66.7%)
Year to date: 189-104 (64.5%)
When there are a lot of upsets, my pick percentage goes down, but my degenerate gambling bankroll goes up. When there aren’t so many upsets, the opposite happens. So I suppose the silver lining to the losing streak I’ve been on is that my pick percentage has been steadily increasing.
UFC 190 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Ronda Rousey
| Mauricio Rua
||Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
| Fernando Bruno
| Dileno Lopes
| Stefan Struve
||Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
| Antonio Silva
| Claudia Gadelha
| Demian Maia
| Patrick Cummins
| Warlley Alves
| Leandro Issa
| Clint Hester
| Hugo Viana
The estimate for Ronda Rousey – 78.8% – can be safely ignored in my opinion. Generally speaking, statistical models have difficulty forecasting events on the extreme ends of the spectrum – outliers. Rousey is a perfect example of an outlier in the MMA world. There just haven’t been enough fighters like Rousey to model. She finishes fights so quickly that the model just doesn’t have the data it needs to really understand how good she is. I think the betting lines, which have Rousey in the -1500 to -1900 range, are a better indicator in this situation.
The number that jumps off the page is Patrick Cummins at 85.6%. The model hates this matchup for Rafael “Feijao,” who was taken down seven times by Ryan Bader, and now faces another strong wrestler in Cummins. Significant strike and takedown data leans heavily towards Cummins, and Feijao doesn’t have the recent quality wins necessary to overcome that. The result is the expectation of a lopsided fight, even if Feijao still has the potential to knock Cummins out with one punch.
The model is also contrarian with Warlley Alves and Nordine Taleb. I’ve seen people saying that Alves is a good betting value, but the model thinks the opposite. Taleb has put up some good numbers as a wrestle-boxer type while Alves deserved to lose against Alan Jouban. The model still likes Alves but not for betting value.
Underdog picks for this event include: Fernando Bruno, Antonio Silva, and Leandro Issa.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: -$1.38
Current bankroll: $279.48
Total investment: $1026.83
Total profit: $179.48
Return on investment: 17.5%
Sadly, my losing streak extended to five events with last week’s UFC on Fox. Tom Lawlor came through with a second-round knockout of Gian Villante, but Ramsey Nijem lost by decision to Andrew Holbrook… in a decision that everybody thought should have gone to Nijem. Poor judging is nothing new, and I’ve been the beneficiary of it before, but it still stings when it goes against me.
For this event I have…
Patrick Cummins -165: $6.19 to win $3.75
Antonio Silva +175: $2.54 to win $4.45
Fernando Bruno +155: $2.27 to win $3.52
Leandro Issa +220: $1.67 to win $3.67
That’s it, just four bets for this event. There are other bets I could make, but I’ve decided to only place the bets that risk at least 0.5 percent of bankroll, as smaller bets are inconsequential in the long run.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!