This is a pretty strong card for a Fight Night event and features a very competitive light-heavyweight main event. Let’s get to it.
Last event: 9-4 (69.2%)
Year to date: 198-108 (64.7%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT NASHVILLE – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Glover Teixeira
| Michael Johnson
| Derek Brunson
| Jared Rosholt
| Sara McMann
| Ray Borg
| Uriah Hall
| Chris Camozzi
| Dustin Ortiz
| Frankie Saenz
| Chris Dempsey
| Marlon Vera
| Scott Holtzman
The betting public has Glover Teixeira vs. Ovince St-Preux as a pick ’em fight and the model agrees. Teixiera should have the advantage in takedowns but St-Preux should have the advantage in strikes, as Teixeira gets hit at an above-average rate. Both fighters hit reasonably hard and both have a sturdy chin. I see the fight going the five-round distance, but if it does the decision really could go either way.
Fast-rising Beneil Dariush is set to face top ten opponent Michael Johnson. If Dariush can get Johnson to the ground, he should have a massive advantage in submissions. But Johnson is tough to take down and has developed into one of the better pressure strikers in the division. Johnson has plenty of knockout power and Dariush has been rocked by strikes before. The overall edge goes to Johnson but Dariush can make him look bad if he can land the takedown.
The model likes Uriah Hall as the most likely fighter to win on the card, which I wasn’t expecting. Whenever I see Hall as a 4-1 favorite in the UFC I immediately assume I’ll be betting on his opponent. But Oluwale Bamgbose lacks the quality wins necessary to get a lot of respect from the model. From watching Bamgbose on video, it seems like he’s the kind of violent striker who can match Hall’s skill standing. Of course, things become different very quickly at a higher level of competition.
The biggest disparity between the betting lines and the model comes with Chris Dempsey, a 68% favorite to win according to the model but a +150 underdog according to the sportsbooks. Opponent Jonathan Wilson seems like the more fluid and talented striker, but Dempsey is a hard-nosed wrestler who could push him into deep waters. The model’s record on prelim fights like this is strong but we’ll see what happens.
Then there’s Anthony Christodoulou, who looked atrocious in his UFC debut against Mairbek Taisumov and is now a +660 underdog against Scott Holtzman. On one hand I’m skeptical of such drastic odds with fighters who don’t have much UFC experience. On the other, Christodoulou was just such an inferior athlete and fighter against Taisumov. I think the truth is probably somewhere between the odds and the model estimates.
Underdog picks for this event include: Frankie Saenz and Chris Dempsey, and I’m quite surprised to see Saenz as an underdog here.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$4.26
Current bankroll: $283.74
Total investment: $1,039.50
Total profit: $183.74
Return on investment: 17.7%
I had very little at risk for UFC 190 last week, but my top two bets were winners thanks to Patrick Cummins and Bigfoot. The result is a small win and, more importantly for my psyche, a snapped losing streak.
For this event I have…
Chris Dempsey +150: $10.33 to win $15.50
Frankie Saenz +105: $5.00 to win $5.25
Anthony Christodoulou +660: $4.59 to win $30.29
Amanda Nunes +230: $4.33 to win $9.96
Chris Camozzi -145: $4.22 to win $2.91
Sam Alvey +355: $3.73 to win $13.24
Willie Gates +375: $2.94 to win $11.03
Geane Herrera +423: $1.94 to win $8.21
Timothy Johnson +215: $1.66 to win $3.57
I should also mention Amanda Nunes, an underdog against Sara McMann. I’m a little more skeptical than the model here – McMann is certainly a flawed fighter but Nunes has such a history of being done after one round. With McMann having an obvious takedown advantage, will Nunes have the ground skill to submit or reverse position? We’ll find out…
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!