Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Saskatoon – Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 10-3 (76.9%)

Year to date: 208-111 (65.2%)

UFC FIGHT NIGHT SASKATOON – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Max Holloway 53.9% Charles Oliveira 46.1%
 Neil Magny 83.1% Erick Silva 16.9%
 Josh Burkman 68.5% Patrick Cote 31.5%
 Chad Laprise 58.4% Francisco Trinaldo 41.6%
 Olivier Aubin-Mercier 60.1% Tony Sims 39.9%
 Maryna Moroz 62.3% Valerie Letourneau 37.7%
 Sam Stout 58.7% Frankie Perez 41.3%
 Felipe Arantes 56.6% Yves Jabouin 43.4%
 Marcos Rogerio de Lima 52.6% Nikita Krylov 47.4%
 Chris Beal 55.8% Chris Kelades 44.2%
 Elias Silverio 72.2% Shane Campbell 27.8%
 Misha Cirkunov 85.0% Daniel Jolly 15.0%

There is no way that Neil Magny actually has an 83% chance of beating Erick Silva. Perhaps that would be the case if the fight goes to decision, but Silva is a dangerous finisher in such a way that the model isn’t really equipped to grasp. I’m not even going to try justifying that much of a disparity between the model estimates and the betting odds (which have Silva a -175 favorite).

The model does love Misha Cirkunov’s chances, mostly because it doesn’t think much of his short-notice opponent, Daniel Jolly. Cirkunov is a 5-1 favorite according to the betting lines, so that’s actually very close to what the model says.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$7.07

Current bankroll: $276.67

Total investment: $1078.24

Total profit: $176.67

Return on investment: 16.4%

My biggest bet two weeks ago was on Chris Dempsey, a +150 underdog who ended up getting finished by Jonathan Wilson in the first round. I did win bets on Frankie Saenz, Amanda Nunes, and Chris Camozzi, but those weren’t enough to offset losses by Chris Dempsey and Anthony Christodoulou on a long-shot bet.

For this event I have…

Neil Magny +165: $29.21 to win $48.20

Josh Burkman -125: $4.47 to win $3.58

Sam Stout +120: $3.49 to win $4.19

Francisco Trinaldo +310: $3.21 to win $9.95

Charles Oliveira +205: $2.69 to win $5.51

Yves Jabouin +185: $1.60 to win $2.96

The bets are all strictly based on the model estimates (and the Kelly criterion), so that means a huge bet on Neil Magny and some smaller bets on a few other fighters. If I lose the Magny bet and win all other bets I still lose, so it’s ride or die with Magny on this one.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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2 responses to “UFC Fight Night Saskatoon – Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Mirko August 23, 2015 at 2:38 pm

    Its risky betting vs Silva since he is really dangerous in first round but anyways good luck.

  2. Nick August 24, 2015 at 12:40 pm

    Great read on Neil Magny and Francisco Trinaldo

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