Last event: 10-3 (76.9%)
Year to date: 208-111 (65.2%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT SASKATOON – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Max Holloway
| Neil Magny
| Josh Burkman
| Chad Laprise
| Olivier Aubin-Mercier
| Maryna Moroz
| Sam Stout
| Felipe Arantes
| Marcos Rogerio de Lima
| Chris Beal
| Elias Silverio
| Misha Cirkunov
There is no way that Neil Magny actually has an 83% chance of beating Erick Silva. Perhaps that would be the case if the fight goes to decision, but Silva is a dangerous finisher in such a way that the model isn’t really equipped to grasp. I’m not even going to try justifying that much of a disparity between the model estimates and the betting odds (which have Silva a -175 favorite).
The model does love Misha Cirkunov’s chances, mostly because it doesn’t think much of his short-notice opponent, Daniel Jolly. Cirkunov is a 5-1 favorite according to the betting lines, so that’s actually very close to what the model says.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: -$7.07
Current bankroll: $276.67
Total investment: $1078.24
Total profit: $176.67
Return on investment: 16.4%
My biggest bet two weeks ago was on Chris Dempsey, a +150 underdog who ended up getting finished by Jonathan Wilson in the first round. I did win bets on Frankie Saenz, Amanda Nunes, and Chris Camozzi, but those weren’t enough to offset losses by Chris Dempsey and Anthony Christodoulou on a long-shot bet.
For this event I have…
Neil Magny +165: $29.21 to win $48.20
Josh Burkman -125: $4.47 to win $3.58
Sam Stout +120: $3.49 to win $4.19
Francisco Trinaldo +310: $3.21 to win $9.95
Charles Oliveira +205: $2.69 to win $5.51
Yves Jabouin +185: $1.60 to win $2.96
The bets are all strictly based on the model estimates (and the Kelly criterion), so that means a huge bet on Neil Magny and some smaller bets on a few other fighters. If I lose the Magny bet and win all other bets I still lose, so it’s ride or die with Magny on this one.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!