Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 191: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 5-7 (41.7%)

Year to date: 213-118 (64.4%)

UFC 191 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Demetrious Johnson 82.9% John Dodson 17.1%
 Andrei Arlovski 77.2% Frank Mir 22.8%
 Anthony Johnson 90.8% Jimi Manuwa 9.2%
 Corey Anderson 57.5% Jan Blachowicz 42.5%
 Paige VanZant 86.8% Alex Chambers 13.2%
 Ross Pearson 54.5% Paul Felder 45.5%
 John Lineker 62.9% Francisco Rivera 37.1%
 Jessica Andrade 63.0% Raquel Pennington 37.0%
 Clay Collard 62.3% Tiago Trator 37.7%
 Joe Riggs 57.7% Ron Stallings 42.3%
 Nazareno Malegarie 54.2% Joaquim Silva 45.8%

The model likes three underdogs to win tomorrow: Corey Anderson, Ross Pearson, and Joe Riggs. All have under 60 percent win estimates, so the model isn’t TOO confident about any of them.

What the three of them have in common: they’re all coming off losses. I don’t doubt that there is some negative impact for a fighter who lost his last fight, but I feel like betting markets probably overrate that impact.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$45.90

Current bankroll: $322.57

Total investment: $1,122.91

Total profit: $222.57

Return on investment: 19.8%

That big plus number above is thanks to Neil Magny, who cruised to victory against Erick Silva. I was skeptical of the model’s assertion that Magny was a 4-1 favorite in that fight, but Magny sure looked like one… despite one judge somehow scoring the fight 29-28 in Silva’s favor.

For this event I have…

Andrei Arlovski -150: $14.12 to win $9.41

Ross Pearson +380: $13.85 to win $52.63

Joe Riggs +150: $7.83 to win $11.75

Corey Anderson +125: $5.75 to win $7.19

Clay Collard -125: $3.35 to win $2.68

John Lineker -135: $2.75 to win $2.04

I’m still not sure what Paul Felder has done to become such a favorite to beat a guy like Ross Pearson. Yes, I know Felder looked great against Danny Castillo. It seems like his loss to Edson Barboza actually boosted his stock for some reason. Sure, Felder didn’t get blown out by Barboza, but he did lose that fight… and Ross Pearson came closer to beating Barboza when they fought in 2011. You can argue that Felder deserves to be favored against Pearson, but over -400 odds on him? That can’t be right.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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6 responses to “UFC 191: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton September 4, 2015 at 7:48 pm

    I like the bets except for Collard and Riggs. I have no faith in those two.

    My gut tells me that Mir will win. I will be cheering for Arlovski though.

  2. Stoyan September 5, 2015 at 7:05 pm

    Great call on Pearson, it will make me miss this blog even more

  3. Cyrus September 5, 2015 at 11:01 pm

    Congrats man! I think you should put a donate button on your page. Also, if you ever come to Vegas, I’d love to chat over a beer or something.

    • David Williams September 5, 2015 at 11:09 pm

      If I had a donate button I’m sure I could make about 15 whole dollars. But in all seriousness, I have a job I really enjoy so I’m not exactly struggling financially. I appreciate the sentiment though!

      And it’s funny you mention Vegas. I’m actually driving there on Thursday for a fantasy football draft and party. I’ll be at Bally’s so if you see me around, feel free to say hi!

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