Last event: 5-7 (41.7%)
Year to date: 213-118 (64.4%)
UFC 191 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Demetrious Johnson
| Andrei Arlovski
| Anthony Johnson
| Corey Anderson
| Paige VanZant
| Ross Pearson
| John Lineker
| Jessica Andrade
| Clay Collard
| Joe Riggs
| Nazareno Malegarie
The model likes three underdogs to win tomorrow: Corey Anderson, Ross Pearson, and Joe Riggs. All have under 60 percent win estimates, so the model isn’t TOO confident about any of them.
What the three of them have in common: they’re all coming off losses. I don’t doubt that there is some negative impact for a fighter who lost his last fight, but I feel like betting markets probably overrate that impact.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$45.90
Current bankroll: $322.57
Total investment: $1,122.91
Total profit: $222.57
Return on investment: 19.8%
That big plus number above is thanks to Neil Magny, who cruised to victory against Erick Silva. I was skeptical of the model’s assertion that Magny was a 4-1 favorite in that fight, but Magny sure looked like one… despite one judge somehow scoring the fight 29-28 in Silva’s favor.
For this event I have…
Andrei Arlovski -150: $14.12 to win $9.41
Ross Pearson +380: $13.85 to win $52.63
Joe Riggs +150: $7.83 to win $11.75
Corey Anderson +125: $5.75 to win $7.19
Clay Collard -125: $3.35 to win $2.68
John Lineker -135: $2.75 to win $2.04
I’m still not sure what Paul Felder has done to become such a favorite to beat a guy like Ross Pearson. Yes, I know Felder looked great against Danny Castillo. It seems like his loss to Edson Barboza actually boosted his stock for some reason. Sure, Felder didn’t get blown out by Barboza, but he did lose that fight… and Ross Pearson came closer to beating Barboza when they fought in 2011. You can argue that Felder deserves to be favored against Pearson, but over -400 odds on him? That can’t be right.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!