Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

Bellator Main Card Statistical Model Estimates

I’ve been asked to share what the model has to say about some fights outside the UFC. The reason I don’t normally post estimates for non-UFC fights is because Fight Metric only collects data for UFC these days. I do use a backup model for fighters with no Fight Metric data, but I haven’t tested the model and can’t speak to its accuracy, especially as a comparison for the betting lines.

I’m not going to promise making this a regular thing, but tomorrow’s card has some good fighters, so how bad can it be?

Favorite % Underdog %
Liam McGeary 61.6% Tito Ortiz 38.4%
Josh Thomson 70.9% Mike Bronzoulis 29.1%
Muhammed Lawal 78.5% Linton Vassell 21.5%
Phil Davis 86.9% Emanuel Newton 13.1%

The model has a lot more faith in Tito Ortiz than the betting lines, but I’m skeptical. Ortiz looked really bad against Stephan Bonnar, but found a way to win because Bonnar looked even worse. I don’t see him getting away with that kind of performance against Liam McGeary.

The model’s biggest favorite of the night is Phil Davis, even though he’s set to face Emanuel Newton. I think it’s safe to say that Newton simply hasn’t ever had to face a fighter quite like Davis, who is a far superior athlete to Newton. Sure, I’d give Newton the striking edge, but I have my doubts that he’ll be able to fend off the takedowns and grappling of Davis.

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5 responses to “Bellator Main Card Statistical Model Estimates

  1. Howard Morton September 19, 2015 at 11:39 am

    I am going to watch this event. I am curious to see how Tito does.

  2. Nick September 22, 2015 at 1:29 pm

    Davis made it look easy.

  3. Nick September 22, 2015 at 1:29 pm

    Odds are out for Saturdays event finally. =)

  4. r.mattioli September 24, 2015 at 3:48 pm

    “you never miss the water till the well runs dry”….

    glad you`ll still be on the intetertoobz in some form or fashion………..I don`t really follow other folks “picks” per se but I do like to check different sources for information and opinions before springing like a leopard onto the arse of the unsuspecting bookmaker(5 dimes in my case…lol)

    I don`t “tweet” so I`ll be one of the lurkers….g.l.

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