Bellator Main Card Statistical Model Estimates
September 18, 2015
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I’ve been asked to share what the model has to say about some fights outside the UFC. The reason I don’t normally post estimates for non-UFC fights is because Fight Metric only collects data for UFC these days. I do use a backup model for fighters with no Fight Metric data, but I haven’t tested the model and can’t speak to its accuracy, especially as a comparison for the betting lines.
I’m not going to promise making this a regular thing, but tomorrow’s card has some good fighters, so how bad can it be?
The model has a lot more faith in Tito Ortiz than the betting lines, but I’m skeptical. Ortiz looked really bad against Stephan Bonnar, but found a way to win because Bonnar looked even worse. I don’t see him getting away with that kind of performance against Liam McGeary.
The model’s biggest favorite of the night is Phil Davis, even though he’s set to face Emanuel Newton. I think it’s safe to say that Newton simply hasn’t ever had to face a fighter quite like Davis, who is a far superior athlete to Newton. Sure, I’d give Newton the striking edge, but I have my doubts that he’ll be able to fend off the takedowns and grappling of Davis.