Apologies for this post being a little later than usual; I’ve been in Reno for Jason Somerville’s Run it UP! event. (Where I’ve been through a workout coached by T.J. Dillashaw… I know, sick brag.)
The bad news for this weekend’s UFC event from Dublin is that there is no main event. Sure, they’re calling Paddy Holohan vs. Louis Smolka the main event, but that’s not really a main event, it’s just the last fight on the card. And poor Ben Rothwell showed up in Ireland even though he didn’t have an opponent after Stipe Miocic’s withdrawal.
The good news is that there are still some compelling and well-matched fights. It’s an event for more hardcore fans, to be sure, but there should at least be some good fights on the card.
I don’t have a full stats update for this card, but know that UFC 192 went very poorly (-$44.46) and I’m working with a bankroll of $326.93 coming into this one.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DUBLIN – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Paddy Holohan
| Norman Parke
| Nicolas Dalby
| Jon Delos Reyes
| Steven Ray
| Aisling Daly
| Krzysztof Jotko
| Cathal Pendred
| Darren Elkins
| Bubba Bush
Holohan and Smolka are both tall, lanky flyweights. Smolka is the more active striker but Holohan should have a pretty large edge in takedowns. If Holohan starts having trouble getting Smolka down, I would favor Smolka in a striking match.
Madadi was fairly successful in his pre-jail UFC stint, but opponent Norman Parke has been very tough to take down. Madadi will want this fight on the ground if he wants to win, but that’s easier said than done.
Nicolas Dalby is more established than Darren Till, but Till enters with an 8-year youth advantage. I expect Dalby to have the advantage in takedowns and Till to have the advantage in strikes. Both fighters are undefeated with Dalby at 14-0 and Till at 13-0.
Neil Seery is the better technical striker, but Jon Delos Reyes is the better and younger athlete and has a lot more knockout power. The model gives the slight edge to Reyes but his overall game is still very rough around the edges.
And then, of course, I have to mention Cathal Pendred, who the model really likes despite looking terrible in all of his fights. Pendred’s current total UFC statistics: 177 to 197 in significant strikes, 12 to 1 in takedowns. That, combined with Pendred’s decent record, is enough for the model to favor him against Tom Breese.
For this event I have…
Cathal Pendred +230: $34.93 to win $80.34
Aisling Daly -125: $11.94 to win $9.55
Jon Delos Reyes +140: $7.50 to win $10.50
Darren Elkins -140: $6.40 to win $4.57
Reza Madadi +220: $5.48 to win $12.06
Mickael Lebout +450: $5.48 to win $24.66
Krzysztof Jotko +120: $5.33 to win $6.40
Paddy Holohan +105: $4.99 to win $5.24
Pendred 30-27 incoming… I hope!
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!