Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Dublin: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

Apologies for this post being a little later than usual; I’ve been in Reno for Jason Somerville’s Run it UP! event. (Where I’ve been through a workout coached by T.J. Dillashaw… I know, sick brag.)

The bad news for this weekend’s UFC event from Dublin is that there is no main event. Sure, they’re calling Paddy Holohan vs. Louis Smolka the main event, but that’s not really a main event, it’s just the last fight on the card. And poor Ben Rothwell showed up in Ireland even though he didn’t have an opponent after Stipe Miocic’s withdrawal.

The good news is that there are still some compelling and well-matched fights. It’s an event for more hardcore fans, to be sure, but there should at least be some good fights on the card.

I don’t have a full stats update for this card, but know that UFC 192 went very poorly (-$44.46) and I’m working with a bankroll of $326.93 coming into this one.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT DUBLIN – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Paddy Holohan 55.2% Louis Smolka 44.8%
 Norman Parke 59.4% Reza Madadi 40.6%
 Nicolas Dalby 53.2% Darren Till 46.8%
 Jon Delos Reyes 52.0% Neil Seery 48.0%
 Steven Ray 70.7% Mickael Lebout 29.3%
 Aisling Daly 66.9% Ericka Almeida 33.1%
 Krzysztof Jotko 52.7% Scott Askham 47.3%
 Cathal Pendred 65.2% Tom Breese 34.8%
 Darren Elkins 64.8% Rob Whiteford 35.2%
 Bubba Bush 70.9% Garreth McLellan 29.1%

Holohan and Smolka are both tall, lanky flyweights. Smolka is the more active striker but Holohan should have a pretty large edge in takedowns. If Holohan starts having trouble getting Smolka down, I would favor Smolka in a striking match.

Madadi was fairly successful in his pre-jail UFC stint, but opponent Norman Parke has been very tough to take down. Madadi will want this fight on the ground if he wants to win, but that’s easier said than done.

Nicolas Dalby is more established than Darren Till, but Till enters with an 8-year youth advantage. I expect Dalby to have the advantage in takedowns and Till to have the advantage in strikes. Both fighters are undefeated with Dalby at 14-0 and Till at 13-0.

Neil Seery is the better technical striker, but Jon Delos Reyes is the better and younger athlete and has a lot more knockout power. The model gives the slight edge to Reyes but his overall game is still very rough around the edges.

And then, of course, I have to mention Cathal Pendred, who the model really likes despite looking terrible in all of his fights. Pendred’s current total UFC statistics: 177 to 197 in significant strikes, 12 to 1 in takedowns. That, combined with Pendred’s decent record, is enough for the model to favor him against Tom Breese.

For this event I have…

Cathal Pendred +230: $34.93 to win $80.34

Aisling Daly -125: $11.94 to win $9.55

Jon Delos Reyes +140: $7.50 to win $10.50

Darren Elkins -140: $6.40 to win $4.57

Reza Madadi +220: $5.48 to win $12.06

Mickael Lebout +450: $5.48 to win $24.66

Krzysztof Jotko +120: $5.33 to win $6.40

Paddy Holohan +105: $4.99 to win $5.24

Pendred 30-27 incoming… I hope!

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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9 responses to “UFC Fight Night Dublin: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Nick October 24, 2015 at 6:31 am

    How was the TJ workout? =)

    • David Williams October 24, 2015 at 4:58 pm

      It was a good workout. Dillashaw walked us through what he does to warm up. For him it’s a warm-up, but for non-athletes like me, it was a full workout. A lot of basic footwork and striking drills. Martin Kampmann was there too.

      Dillashaw and Kampmann are both super nice guys by the way. Very low-key, down to earth people.

  2. r.mattioli October 24, 2015 at 8:59 am

    this card(or more correctly, what`s left of it) is a crapshoot…..my main play on this card was Poirier/duffy doesn`t go the distance as a parlay kicker……I also parlayed parke and breese(all with some nfl moneyline plays that fortunately went well),but I`m strongly considering offing both bets that are left…..pretty stupid considering I took the chance to get this far and will probably bail now that i`m almost home…. but I liked the itd prop most and was much more financially invested in that…I just don`t feel like taking a chance on these “action” wagers that are dependent on whether parke can keep his fight standing and who sucks worse ,pendred or breese…..they were small action wagers and I`m feeling a bit frugal this morning….

    I do have a fairly large futures par with the az cardinals Monday night(my ravens,although still trying,are undermanned and outgunned) with canelo alvarez over Miguel cotto(cotto will be 35 by fight time)…too many wars…and he`s the smaller guy here…it`s canelo`s time…cotto had his day…and the vegas venue strongly favors the young Mexican star….

    seems like quite a few toss-ups on this bargain basement card…looks like david is mostly taking the points……I can understand that…just don`t see much that makes me want to take the rubberband off here…I watched some vids of breese…from what I saw,he doesn`t have great takedown defense(which should really help cathal)……but has “some” jits acumen(he`s no damian maia,but he`s been capable of subbing some lower level European guys)…he`s a lefty and is probably a little better on his feet than pendred…not a significant edge,,,but an edge just the same and as rudimentary as pendred`s striking is,i think the lefty stance of breese will give him difficulty….with breese `s jits and pendred`s g&p being their respective strong points,it will depend on whether pendred can keep breese from subbing him from off his back….

    the parke/mehdad purse flinging episode at the weigh-in indicates that theres legit bad blood there so given that and the number of toss-up fights,it helps make up for the lack of star power on this card…..if you aren`t raking leaves or watching college foots,it`s not a horrible way to spend a saturday afternoon…the irish fans are always rowdy…

    g.l.,fellas…

    • Howard Morton October 24, 2015 at 10:36 am

      I woke up and turned on Fight Pass with a cup of coffee. Not a bad way to spend a morning.

      Good luck, especially if you have money on Pendred.

    • David Williams October 24, 2015 at 5:01 pm

      Yeah, turns out that Pendred really didn’t have much for Breese. The model has recommended some really big bets on Pendred. The reality is that they all should have lost, but I got away with it a couple times.

      It’s really surprising to see Baltimore at 1-5 by the way. I feel like the Ravens are a better team than that, but losing Suggs obviously didn’t help.

      • Howard Morton October 24, 2015 at 5:30 pm

        Breese looked great. Completely dominated Pendred. I would like to see him against a top 15 guy next. Maybe Tim Means?

      • r.mattioli October 24, 2015 at 11:53 pm

        david…it`s not just suggs..they lost ngata,pernell McPhee,torrey smith and owen daniels…..throw in the fact that we tried to replace those old standard bearers and leaders with rookies and undrafted free agents that haven`t distinguished themselves(along with another offensive coordinator change when we lost kubiak to Denver)….and maybe the main culprit(our early schedule)…it`s hard to believe that we started the season with back-to-back west coast games(at Denver and Oakland) and are in the midst with this Arizona game of our second back-to-back west coast trip before the season even hits the halfway mark….that`s a total of 2 back-to-back west coast trips and 5 of our first 7 games on the road…that`s downright onerous…

        we have no receivers aside from steve smith and our secondary is a sieve…the pass rush is dumervil or nothing….

        yet amid all that devastation,we`ve played every game within one possession(within 7 points)…the team hasn`t quit…we`re just undermanned and outgunned …I don`t think that Arizona will be happy after losing in Pittsburgh last weekend….I`m keeping an eye out to see whether john brown plays for the cards…if he`s able to play at a semi-effective level,i expect him and fitzgerald to do real damage Monday night coming home off a loss…Patrick Peterson and mattieu will take steve amith away and the cards will riddle our 27th ranked pass defense…

        only issue is that flacco doesn`t quit…he`s never had great weapons(why they pay him all that money and surround him with shit I`ll never understand) and doesn`t get the credit he deserves given the lack of talent they surround him with…if he had cincy`s offensive weapons,he`d be something…

  3. r.mattioli October 25, 2015 at 12:09 am

    btw…I wasn`t clear…I`m not laying the points with the cardinals…it`s a moneyline wager in a par along with canelo…not my largest wager by a long shot…but I still feel pretty good about it(I should just lay the -300+ and bet alvarez,but I don`t have the huevos to lay those odds under any circumstances)…

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