Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 5-4 (55.6%)

Year to date: 242-130 (65.1%)

UFC FIGHT NIGHT SAO PAULO – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Vitor Belfort 72.1% Dan Henderson 27.9%
 Patrick Cummins 51.6% Glover Teixeira 48.4%
 Thomas Almeida 62.3% Anthony Birchak 37.7%
 Alex Oliveira 50.1% Piotr Hallmann 49.9%
 Rashid Magomedov 66.5% Gilbert Burns 33.5%
 Corey Anderson 84.6% Fabio Maldonado 15.4%
 Gleison Tibau 90.2% Abel Trujillo 9.8%
 Johnny Case 67.0% Yan Cabral 33.0%
 Clay Guida 65.1% Thiago Tavares 34.9%
 Chas Skelly 52.9% Kevin Souza 47.1%
 Viscardi Andrade 53.3% Gasan Umalatov 46.7%
 Jimmie Rivera 72.0% Pedro Munhoz 28.0%
 Matheus Nicolau Pereira 54.1% Bruno Korea 45.9%

I’ll be honest with you, if somebody told me that I would get a million dollars if I picked the fight between Patrick Cummins and Glover Teixeira correctly, I would pick Teixeira. Teixeira is the more accomplished fighter but the model thinks Cummins will have a massive takedown advantage, which is why he’s slightly favored. I happen to think Teixeira is the far superior striker and has an overall skill set that will carry him to victory here. Cummins is not Phil Davis…

I said before Dan Henderson’s fight against Tim Boetsch that his big right hand is his only way to win fights at a high level now. Sure enough, Henderson knocked Boetsch out with that right hand. It’s possible that Henderson can knock out Vitor Belfort as well, but I think a Belfort knockout win is much more likely.

The other fight I need to mention is Gleison Tibau vs. Abel Trujillo, a fight that is evenly matched according to the betting lines. Once again, takedowns are the reason why the model estimates are so different. Tibau lands a lot of takedowns on a consistent basis while Trujillo has been taken down a lot, most notably against Khabib Nurmagomedov. I think the truth is probably somewhere between the model and the betting lines.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$37.86

Current bankroll: $289.07

Total investment: $1,444.61

Total profit: $189.07

Return on investment: 13.1%

It turns out the model wasn’t justified to love Cathal Pendred so much. Pendred got knocked out in the first round by Tom Breese, making my biggest bet for UFC Fight Night Dublin a loser. I’m now on a three-event losing streak, but hopefully that will end now.

For this event I have…

Gleison Tibau -115: $15.45 to win $13.43

Jimmie Rivera +150: $4.72 to win $7.08

Patrick Cummins +410: $2.73 to win $11.19

That’s it, just three bets this time. I only need Gleison Tibau to win to break the losing streak. If Tibau loses, I’ll need upsets from both Jimmie Rivera and Patrick Cummins. We’ll see what happens.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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7 responses to “UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton November 6, 2015 at 2:35 pm

    Only 3 bets? Interesting.

    I like Rivera and Tibau, but not Cummins. Cummins is going to get KO’d.

  2. r.mattioli November 7, 2015 at 10:34 am

    very much looking forward to almeida/birchak…..this should be a war and I put a small wager as fotn at +550 on it….unfortunately(for gamblers,not fans),there are several potential font`s on this card…I wish I could be sure that almeida could stop birchak`s takedown defense because the fight doesn`t go the distance prop would be a possibility…I watched some of their fights that went the distance on youtube and it was actually a bit surprising that those fights went the distance(birchak/benoit and almeida/gorman)….both were chock full of violence and had several instances in which stoppages were imminent…

    I`m agreeing a bit on tibau(if he doesn`t get caught early)….but still can`t get the memory of varner crushing Trujillo along the fence and then getting careless and getting k.o.`ed when it looked like Trujillo was all but done…..

    fun card..big month ahead….g.l. guys..

    • r.mattioli November 7, 2015 at 10:37 am

      I meant to say that “I wish I could be sure that almeida could stop birchak`s takedowns”.(not takedown “defense”)…

  3. Nick November 7, 2015 at 4:52 pm

    Model is perfect on Andrade and Rivera

  4. r.mattioli November 8, 2015 at 8:28 am

    good night david….tibau tibaued and rivera did just enough….well done…

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