Last event: 5-4 (55.6%)
Year to date: 242-130 (65.1%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT SAO PAULO – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Vitor Belfort
| Patrick Cummins
| Thomas Almeida
| Alex Oliveira
| Rashid Magomedov
| Corey Anderson
| Gleison Tibau
| Johnny Case
| Clay Guida
| Chas Skelly
| Viscardi Andrade
| Jimmie Rivera
| Matheus Nicolau Pereira
I’ll be honest with you, if somebody told me that I would get a million dollars if I picked the fight between Patrick Cummins and Glover Teixeira correctly, I would pick Teixeira. Teixeira is the more accomplished fighter but the model thinks Cummins will have a massive takedown advantage, which is why he’s slightly favored. I happen to think Teixeira is the far superior striker and has an overall skill set that will carry him to victory here. Cummins is not Phil Davis…
I said before Dan Henderson’s fight against Tim Boetsch that his big right hand is his only way to win fights at a high level now. Sure enough, Henderson knocked Boetsch out with that right hand. It’s possible that Henderson can knock out Vitor Belfort as well, but I think a Belfort knockout win is much more likely.
The other fight I need to mention is Gleison Tibau vs. Abel Trujillo, a fight that is evenly matched according to the betting lines. Once again, takedowns are the reason why the model estimates are so different. Tibau lands a lot of takedowns on a consistent basis while Trujillo has been taken down a lot, most notably against Khabib Nurmagomedov. I think the truth is probably somewhere between the model and the betting lines.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: -$37.86
Current bankroll: $289.07
Total investment: $1,444.61
Total profit: $189.07
Return on investment: 13.1%
It turns out the model wasn’t justified to love Cathal Pendred so much. Pendred got knocked out in the first round by Tom Breese, making my biggest bet for UFC Fight Night Dublin a loser. I’m now on a three-event losing streak, but hopefully that will end now.
For this event I have…
Gleison Tibau -115: $15.45 to win $13.43
Jimmie Rivera +150: $4.72 to win $7.08
Patrick Cummins +410: $2.73 to win $11.19
That’s it, just three bets this time. I only need Gleison Tibau to win to break the losing streak. If Tibau loses, I’ll need upsets from both Jimmie Rivera and Patrick Cummins. We’ll see what happens.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!