Last event: 11-2 (84.6%)
Year to date: 253-132 (65.7%)
I was thinking about whether to credit the Patrick Cummins-Glover Teixeira fight as a win or loss, as the model favored Cummins but I made it clear that I felt Teixeira was the real favorite. I’ve ultimately decided to count it as a loss, since the model is really what’s being tested here.
UFC 193 – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
| Ronda Rousey
| Joanna Jedrzejczyk
| Mark Hunt
| Uriah Hall
| Jared Rosholt
| Jake Matthews
| Peter Sobotta
| Gian Villante
| Richie Vaculik
| Steve Montgomery
| Richard Walsh
| James Moontasri
| Ben Nguyen
I’ve written before that Ronda Rousey is the kind of fighter who is impossible to model with statistics. That continues to be the case going into her championship fight against Holly Holm. Rousey routinely finishes her opponents in under a minute, and is now winning by knockout as well as submission. She’s faced all of the top fighters in her division and none of them have been competitive. There’s simply nobody like her in MMA.
Even so, Rousey vs. Holm is an even greater mismatch than usual, in the sense that Holm isn’t as good as most of Rousey’s past UFC opponents. Holm went to a close decision against Raquel Pennington and then won a convincing (if dull) decision against Marion Reneau. So Holm has performed decently against two mid-tier opponents while Rousey has crushed the best fighters in the division. It would be like a college football team winning two close games against Mountain West opponents and then being thrown into a game against Ohio State. What do you think is going to happen?
Now, I think the model struggles with Joanna Jedrzejczyk as well, but I also think the betting line on her title defense against Valerie Letourneau is out of control. At -1700 or higher, Jedrzejczyk is actually a bigger favorite against Letourneau than Rousey is against Holm. Letourneau is probably comparable to Holm as a title challenger; both are good but not great fighters being thrown into title fights before they’ve really proven they deserve the opportunity. And while Jedrzejczyk has certainly been very impressive in her fights, she hasn’t been dominant on Rousey’s level.
Of course, I’ll still be shocked if either Rousey or Jedrzejczyk loses.
When Mark Hunt took on Antonio Silva the first time, the model slightly favored Silva to win. This time, Hunt is the slight favorite. Hunt and Silva really are a very good match for each other; Hunt has the striking advantage and Silva has the grappling advantage. Neither fighter has a great chin at this point (Hunt’s was cracked long ago). I would say I’d be shocked to see it go the distance, but that’s what I said last time too.
All of a sudden, the model likes Uriah Hall a lot after his shocking upset win over Gegard Mousasi. I’m more skeptical of Hall than the model is. In beating Mousasi, Hall proved that he’s a very dangerous kicker capable of winning by knockout at any moment – but we knew that already. Hall still hasn’t proved that he’s a good boxer, or that he can defend takedowns against a strong wrestler. I think his fight against Robert Whittaker is probably closer to a toss-up than the model suggests.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$17.78
Current bankroll: $306.85
Total investment: $1,467.51
Total profit: $206.85
Return on investment: 14.1%
Having only three bets on last week’s UFC Fight Night from Sao Paulo paid off. Gleison Tibau and Jimmie Rivera were both winners while I lost a small bet on +410 underdog Patrick Cummins.
For this event I have…
Richie Vaculik +100: $8.65 to win $8.65
Anton Zafir +290: $6.38 to win $18.50
Uriah Hall -140: $5.95 to win $4.25
Jared Rosholt +100: $4.77 to win $4.77
Antonio Silva +245: $3.56 to win $8.72
Daniel Kelly +240: $3.41 to win $8.18
Anthony Perosh +365: $3.14 to win $11.46
Valerie Letourneau +1100: $2.90 to win $31.90
Akbarh Arreola +750: $2.84 to win $21.30
Kyle Noke +150: $2.53 to win $3.80
Holly Holm +1200: $2.18 to win $26.16
Boom. One week after having only three bets, I’m coming back with 11 bets for UFC 193. I’ve placed 11 bets on an event once before, at UFC Fight Night in San Diego earlier this year. That ended up being a losing event, so hopefully this one will be different.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!