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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
Last event: 8-5 (61.5%)
Year to date: 261-137 (65.6%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT MONTERREY – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Kelvin Gastelum||54.0%||Neil Magny||46.0%|
|Ricardo Lamas||61.8%||Diego Sanchez||38.2%|
|Henry Cejudo||59.7%||Jussier Formiga||40.3%|
|Enrique Marin||63.5%||Erick Montano||36.5%|
|Enrique Barzola||59.6%||Horacio Gutierrez||40.4%|
|Efrain Escudero||58.8%||Leandro Silva||41.2%|
|Erik Perez||56.5%||Taylor Lapilus||43.5%|
|Bartosz Fabinski||72.1%||Hector Urbina||27.9%|
|Alejandro Perez||53.7%||Scott Jorgensen||46.3%|
|Andre Fili||60.5%||Gabriel Benitez||39.5%|
|Vernon Ramos||61.0%||Alvaro Herrera||39.0%|
|Cesar Arzamendia||64.5%||Polo Reyes||35.5%|
|Valmir Lazaro||63.0%||Michel Prazeres||37.0%|
As usual, the model favors many of the same fighters who are favored by the betting lines, but suggests the fights are closer than expected. Kelvin Gastelum is a -295 favorite to beat Neil Magny but the model says his chances of winning are barely better than a coin flip. Ricardo Lamas is listed as a -475 favorite to beat Diego Sanchez, but the model says his chances are just 61.8%. Henry Cejudo is a -525 favorite to beat Jussier Formiga, but the model says he’s just a 59.7% favorite.
My guess is that the truth is somewhere between the betting lines and the model estimates. I can see why a fighter like Lamas is so heavily favored; Lamas has been consistently competitive at a high level while Diego Sanchez hasn’t won a fight convincingly since he fought Paulo Thiago at UFC 121. Meanwhile, Henry Cejudo is a world-class wrestler and athlete who is unlikely to allow Jussier Formiga to drag him to the ground.
But as we saw with Ronda Rousey last week, it can be hard to envision a big upset happening until it actually does.
Underdog picks for this event include: Enrique Barzola, Efrain Escudero, and Alejandro Perez.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$9.49
Current bankroll: $316.34
Total investment: $1,513.82
Total profit: $216.34
Return on investment: 14.3%
So Holly Holm at +1200 was a winner, and it allowed me to walk away with a small gain after losing bets on Richie Vaculik, Anton Zafir, and Uriah Hall. That result shows why I’m generally skeptical any time the betting lines suggest that one fighter is over a 10-1 underdog.
For this event I have…
Enrique Barzola +150: $11.93 to win $17.90
Jussier Formiga +450: $9.11 to win $41.00
Neil Magny +265: $8.47 to win $22.45
Efrain Escudero +120: $7.96 to win $9.55
Diego Sanchez +420: $7.55 to win $31.71
Valmir Lazaro -110: $7.05 to win $6.41
Bartosz Fabinski -205: $4.31 to win $2.10
Alejandro Perez +115: $3.82 to win $4.39
Erik Perez -105: $2.99 to win $2.85
My biggest bet is on TUF: Latin America 2 finalist Enrique Barzola. I have not watched a single minute of this version of TUF so I have no idea if I should feel good about this bet or not.
Then there’s Neil Magny, who has been very good to me when it comes to degenerate gambling over the year. I’m honestly quite surprised to see him listed at a +265 price against Kelvin Gastelum, who will attempt to cut to 170 pounds again later today. I know Magny took the fight on short notice, but he already showed he can handle a short notice fight well when he beat Erick Silva earlier this year.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!