Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Monterrey: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 8-5 (61.5%)

Year to date: 261-137 (65.6%)

 

UFC FIGHT NIGHT MONTERREY – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Kelvin Gastelum 54.0% Neil Magny 46.0%
 Ricardo Lamas 61.8% Diego Sanchez 38.2%
 Henry Cejudo 59.7% Jussier Formiga 40.3%
 Enrique Marin 63.5% Erick Montano 36.5%
 Enrique Barzola 59.6% Horacio Gutierrez 40.4%
 Efrain Escudero 58.8% Leandro Silva 41.2%
 Erik Perez 56.5% Taylor Lapilus 43.5%
 Bartosz Fabinski 72.1% Hector Urbina 27.9%
 Alejandro Perez 53.7% Scott Jorgensen 46.3%
 Andre Fili 60.5% Gabriel Benitez 39.5%
 Vernon Ramos 61.0% Alvaro Herrera 39.0%
 Cesar Arzamendia 64.5% Polo Reyes 35.5%
 Valmir Lazaro 63.0% Michel Prazeres 37.0%

As usual, the model favors many of the same fighters who are favored by the betting lines, but suggests the fights are closer than expected. Kelvin Gastelum is a -295 favorite to beat Neil Magny but the model says his chances of winning are barely better than a coin flip. Ricardo Lamas is listed as a -475 favorite to beat Diego Sanchez, but the model says his chances are just 61.8%. Henry Cejudo is a -525 favorite to beat Jussier Formiga, but the model says he’s just a 59.7% favorite.

My guess is that the truth is somewhere between the betting lines and the model estimates. I can see why a fighter like Lamas is so heavily favored; Lamas has been consistently competitive at a high level while Diego Sanchez hasn’t won a fight convincingly since he fought Paulo Thiago at UFC 121. Meanwhile, Henry Cejudo is a world-class wrestler and athlete who is unlikely to allow Jussier Formiga to drag him to the ground.

But as we saw with Ronda Rousey last week, it can be hard to envision a big upset happening until it actually does.

Underdog picks for this event include: Enrique Barzola, Efrain Escudero, and Alejandro Perez.

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$9.49

Current bankroll: $316.34

Total investment: $1,513.82

Total profit: $216.34

Return on investment: 14.3%

So Holly Holm at +1200 was a winner, and it allowed me to walk away with a small gain after losing bets on Richie Vaculik, Anton Zafir, and Uriah Hall. That result shows why I’m generally skeptical any time the betting lines suggest that one fighter is over a 10-1 underdog.

For this event I have…

Enrique Barzola +150: $11.93 to win $17.90

Jussier Formiga +450: $9.11 to win $41.00

Neil Magny +265: $8.47 to win $22.45

Efrain Escudero +120: $7.96 to win $9.55

Diego Sanchez +420: $7.55 to win $31.71

 

Valmir Lazaro -110: $7.05 to win $6.41

Bartosz Fabinski -205: $4.31 to win $2.10

Alejandro Perez +115: $3.82 to win $4.39

Erik Perez -105: $2.99 to win $2.85

My biggest bet is on TUF: Latin America 2 finalist Enrique Barzola. I have not watched a single minute of this version of TUF so I have no idea if I should feel good about this bet or not.

Then there’s Neil Magny, who has been very good to me when it comes to degenerate gambling over the year. I’m honestly quite surprised to see him listed at a +265 price against Kelvin Gastelum, who will attempt to cut to 170 pounds again later today. I know Magny took the fight on short notice, but he already showed he can handle a short notice fight well when he beat Erick Silva earlier this year.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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8 responses to “UFC Fight Night Monterrey: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. r.mattioli November 20, 2015 at 2:26 pm

    I think escudero and alejandro perez are definitely worth a look(I wonder how Jorgensen is managing to hang on in the ufc..he may win here but c`mon…he`s 1-4 in his last 5 in the ufc) ..maybe perez/Jorgensen doesn`t go the distance at +150?…….I also think that the escudero fight going the distance at -170 is decent parlay material….

    not a great card but the next few weeks are going to be fun…..I`m looking hard at luke rockhold in a few weeks…..

    also have several pars with canelo alvarez as the kicker over miguel cotto…let`s hope youth and size overcome experience…

    • Howard Morton November 20, 2015 at 4:42 pm

      I am surprised an East Coast guy like yourself would bet Rockhold over Weidman. I think Williams will bet his entire bank roll on Weidman. 😄

  2. r.mattioli November 21, 2015 at 11:44 am

    I`ve always liked rockhold`s skillset…he`s tall,lefty and is hard to keep on the floor…he has a nice,well rounded game and doesn`t get intimidated..i think this 3 k.o.`s aren`t truly indicative of his striking and explosiveness(kicks,knees,punches)…….if it turns into a long,hard fight,i like his chances…as we see from the odds,the books are a tad leery of rockhold…….

    I`m hoping for much better than +155,though…that card is insane top to bottom….should be great stuff…

  3. JF1 November 21, 2015 at 5:59 pm

    Polo Reyes 35.5% upset the model, Jorgenson’s fragility info not taken in
    Would be great to see a Fightnomics model side by side, eg: Perez 17months off so ought to be 33% chance to win if you believe the book’s data to apply, Southpaw advantage for Rockhold scrap coming up ‘cooked in’ to model. Love seeing this info.

    • David Williams November 21, 2015 at 11:01 pm

      I do wonder sometimes if it’s a good idea to use Fightnomics information as a supplement to the model. But I usually settle on just going with the model estimates, since it’s usually better to keep things simple.

      And yeah, Jorgensen… that’s a guy who should be seriously thinking about a different career.

  4. r.mattioli November 23, 2015 at 1:59 pm

    david…I hope you`re catching up on your z`s…..the 10th through the 12th is pretty much akin to getting caught up in the gears of a ufc combine….

    get some sleep and lay in some fingercots for those bloddy stumps….looks like lots of typing to close out the year(and the site)…..I see lots of potential…….

  5. Nick November 27, 2015 at 9:46 am

    Looking forward to how the stats look for UFC Seoul

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