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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
Apologies for this post being so close to the start of UFC Fight Night Seoul. I’ve been quite busy today so I’m going to just post the model estimates and bets without commentary. However, I must point out three things:
1: There’s been some very suspicious betting line movement in the Tae Hyun Bang vs. Leo Kuntz fight. Somehow Bang has gone from being a -200 favorite to a +350 underdog in a very short period of time. I think the best course of action here is to stay away from betting on the fight entirely.
2: The model actually wants me to bet more on Alberto Mina than I ended up doing, but I think it’s probably not a good idea to go above 10 percent of bankroll for any one bet.
3: There are actually two Dong Hyun Kims on this card. One is the “Stun Gun” we’ve all watched for a long time now. The other is a debuting fighter in the lightweight division.
Last event: 7-6 (53.8%)
Year to date: 268-143 (65.2%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT SEOUL – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Benson Henderson||60.3%||Jorge Masvidal||39.7%|
|Dong Hyun Kim (WW)||86.3%||Dom Waters||13.7%|
|Alberto Mina||74.0%||Yoshihiro Akiyama||26.0%|
|Dominique Steele||52.1%||Dong Hyun Kim (LW)||47.9%|
|Doo Ho Choi||59.0%||Sam Sicilia||41.0%|
|Yui Chul Nam||50.5%||Mike De La Torre||49.5%|
|Tae Hyun Bang||54.5%||Leo Kuntz||45.5%|
|Dongi Yang||51.2%||Jake Collier||48.8%|
|Seo Hee Ham||53.6%||Cortney Casey||46.4%|
|Yao Zhikui||53.7%||Freddy Serrano||46.3%|
|Marco Beltran||51.3%||Ning Guangyou||48.7%|
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$18.02
Current bankroll: $334.36
Total investment: $1,577.01
Total profit: $234.36
Return on investment: 14.9%
For this event I have…
Alberto Mina +145: $33.44 to win $48.49
Yao Zhikui +145: $8.80 to win $12.76
Marco Beltran +160: $8.34 to win $13.34
Seo Hee Ham +135: $7.53 to win $10.17
Sam Sicilia +210: $4.69 to win $9.85
Jorge Masvidal +200: $3.34 to win $6.68
Dongi Yang +115: $3.04 to win $3.50
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights! (Assuming you hate sleep or live somewhere far away from the Pacific time zone where I am.)