Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC Fight Night Seoul: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

Apologies for this post being so close to the start of UFC Fight Night Seoul. I’ve been quite busy today so I’m going to just post the model estimates and bets without commentary. However, I must point out three things:

1: There’s been some very suspicious betting line movement in the Tae Hyun Bang vs. Leo Kuntz fight. Somehow Bang has gone from being a -200 favorite to a +350 underdog in a very short period of time. I think the best course of action here is to stay away from betting on the fight entirely.

2: The model actually wants me to bet more on Alberto Mina than I ended up doing, but I think it’s probably not a good idea to go above 10 percent of bankroll for any one bet.

3: There are actually two Dong Hyun Kims on this card. One is the “Stun Gun” we’ve all watched for a long time now. The other is a debuting fighter in the lightweight division.

2015 PICKS

Last event: 7-6 (53.8%)

Year to date: 268-143 (65.2%)

 

UFC FIGHT NIGHT SEOUL – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

 

Favorite % Underdog %
 Benson Henderson 60.3% Jorge Masvidal 39.7%
 Dong Hyun Kim (WW) 86.3% Dom Waters 13.7%
 Alberto Mina 74.0% Yoshihiro Akiyama 26.0%
 Dominique Steele 52.1% Dong Hyun Kim (LW) 47.9%
 Doo Ho Choi 59.0% Sam Sicilia 41.0%
 Yui Chul Nam 50.5% Mike De La Torre 49.5%
 Tae Hyun Bang 54.5% Leo Kuntz 45.5%
 Dongi Yang 51.2% Jake Collier 48.8%
 Seo Hee Ham 53.6% Cortney Casey 46.4%
 Yao Zhikui 53.7% Freddy Serrano 46.3%
 Marco Beltran 51.3% Ning Guangyou 48.7%

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: +$18.02

Current bankroll: $334.36

Total investment: $1,577.01

Total profit: $234.36

Return on investment: 14.9%

 

For this event I have…

Alberto Mina +145: $33.44 to win $48.49

Yao Zhikui +145: $8.80 to win $12.76

Marco Beltran +160: $8.34 to win $13.34

Seo Hee Ham +135: $7.53 to win $10.17

Sam Sicilia +210: $4.69 to win $9.85

Jorge Masvidal +200: $3.34 to win $6.68

Dongi Yang +115: $3.04 to win $3.50

 

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights! (Assuming you hate sleep or live somewhere far away from the Pacific time zone where I am.)

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3 responses to “UFC Fight Night Seoul: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Stoyan November 28, 2015 at 1:17 am

    Unfortunately I already placed 2 units on Bang yesterday. Today I woke up and saw his line went from 2.25 to 4.50….
    Can’t find any clear explenation over the internet, but something’s definitely not right.

  2. Nick November 28, 2015 at 4:15 pm

    Dave you need to post these at least a day before an event =)

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