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Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
With the highly anticipated UFC 194 taking place this Saturday, the UFC has apparently decided that the best way to take advantage of mainstream interest in Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor is to actually hold events on three consecutive days. It seems to me that tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night and Friday’s TUF Finale would be overwhelmed by the attention given to UFC 194, but the UFC has found success doing stuff like this in the past.
As for me… there is a zero percent chance I’ll be watching every fight this week. I’ll probably DVR tomorrow’s main card, watch Edgar vs. Mendes on Friday, and then watch all of UFC 194. But three fight cards means three Degenerate Gambler’s Corners, so let’s get to it.
Last event: 9-2 (81.8%)
Year to date: 277-145 (65.6%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT LAS VEGAS – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Paige VanZant||73.0%||Rose Namajunas||27.0%|
|Michael Chiesa||62.4%||Jim Miller||37.6%|
|Sage Northcutt||60.2%||Cody Pfister||39.8%|
|Elias Theodorou||71.6%||Thiago Santos||28.4%|
|Tim Means||62.1%||John Howard||37.9%|
|Omari Akhmedov||60.5%||Sergio Moraes||39.5%|
|Antonio Carlos Junior||62.2%||Kevin Casey||37.8%|
|Aljamain Sterling||81.2%||Johnny Eduardo||18.8%|
|Santiago Ponzinibbio||56.4%||Andreas Stahl||43.6%|
|Nathan Coy||53.5%||Danny Roberts||46.5%|
|Zubaira Tukhugov||74.3%||Phillipe Nover||25.7%|
|Kailin Curran||73.5%||Emily Kagan||26.5%|
I’m surprised to see the model favoring VanZant over Namajunas by this margin. If I hadn’t looked at the model I probably would have considered it close to a 50-50 fight. The model expects VanZant to have a significant advantage in both strikes and takedowns, although Namajunas has had the stronger competition.
Michael Chiesa and Jim Miller are similar in that they’re both average strikers who are good on the ground. Miller is probably the better pure submission fighter but the model gives Chiesa the edge in takedowns.
Sage Northcutt being -1100 is just stupid. As far as I can tell, Northcutt reached that betting price because he’s very young, a great athlete, and has some serious promotional muscle behind him. This is where I point out that he’s 1-0 in the UFC with a win over Frank Trevino. No, I don’t expect Cody Pfister to beat Northcutt, but the hype machine has really gone out of control here.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$58.67
Current bankroll: $393.03
Total investment: $1,646.19
Total profit: $293.03
Return on investment: 17.8%
My huge bet on Alberto Mina came through, as he won by split decision against Yoshihiro Akiyama. Additional wins on Marco Beltran and Seo Hee Ham helped produce one of my biggest winning events of the year.
For this event I have…
Cody Pfister +900: $20.46 to win $184.14
Paige VanZant -160: $17.55 to win $10.97
Michael Chiesa -110: $11.02 to win $10.02
John Howard +365: $10.91 to win $39.82
Nathan Coy +135: $9.73 to win $13.14
Kevin Casey +275: $7.40 to win $20.35
Andreas Stahl +185: $6.24 to win $11.54
Omari Akhmedov -135: $3.20 to win $2.37
Johnny Eduardo +570: $1.97 to win $11.23
If there’s one thing I haven’t been afraid to do, it’s put a big bet on a big underdog. Let’s go Cody Pfister!
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
I’ll have the degenerate gambler’s corner for tomorrow’s event up as soon as possible after tomorrow’s fights are over, and then do the same thing for UFC 194 on Friday night.