Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC 194: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 7-3 (70.0%)

Year to date: 291-152 (65.7%)


Last event: -$44.34

Current bankroll: $289.48

Total investment: $1,814.69

Total profit: $189.48

Return on investment: 10.4%

I’ll be honest, I wasn’t expecting to lose over a quarter of my degenerate gambling bankroll in the last two days. I don’t like seeing my ROI down to 10 percent but there’s no getting around that fact. I never reasonably expected to keep that ROI at 30 percent like it was earlier this year though.

But it’s just an example of negative variance. You could easily argue that I had a lot of positive variance in the first half of this year, and now I’m dealing with some negative variance. My two biggest bets of each of the last two events lost. It happens.

For this event I have…

Court McGee -172: $14.16 to win $8.23

Chris Weidman -130: $10.72 to win $8.25

Frankie Saenz +540: $8.39 to win $45.31

Demian Maia -110: $5.62 to win $5.11

Joe Proctor +325: $4.34 to win $14.11

Jeremy Stephens +450: $2.43 to win $10.94

Jose Aldo -113: $2.42 to win $2.14

Yoel Romero +130: $2.20 to win $2.86

Leonardo Santos +540: $2.15 to win $11.61

All this build-up and anticipation and my biggest bet of the event is on… Court McGee. The TUF 11 winner hasn’t competed in two years, a fact the model simply doesn’t know about. Hopefully he doesn’t suffer from a severe bout of cage rust against Marcio Alexandre Junior.

And of course, that bet is followed by one on Chris Weidman. I’m probably one of the few who is just as excited to watch Weidman vs. Rockhold as I am to watch Aldo vs. McGregor. I think both fights have the potential to be all-time classics.

The obligatory big bet on a big underdog is on Frankie Saenz, who is facing none other than Urijah Faber. This seems to me like the kind of fight where Saenz fights Faber pretty competitively for a little while, and then Faber suddenly takes his back and chokes him out late in the second round or something like that. We’ll see what happens.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!


5 responses to “UFC 194: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Mirko December 12, 2015 at 9:10 am

    Aldo went from underdog to favorite.
    My picks are Aldo, Rockhold, Jacare, Maia and Holloway.

  2. r.mattioli December 12, 2015 at 5:19 pm

    kevin lee looked extremely pedestrian…..very cocky….he looked unprepared..he didn`t even look quick….

    beaten handily…

  3. r.mattioli December 12, 2015 at 11:23 pm

    whoa…just whoa…..rockhold looked like he was gonna die in there until the wheelkick failure(thank you Weidman)…something was wrong with him…he gassed way too fast,yet still was able to win…

    mcgregor?….what can you say?…he embarrasses,insults and disrespects the no.1 pfp guy in the world and the proceeds to k.o. him in 13 seconds….I think he goaded aldo into throwing down and he knew that was right in his wheelhouse….

    the guy is incredible….but….he won`t be the same at 155 with all those big grapplers…

    • David Williams December 13, 2015 at 12:57 am

      Yeah, it looked like Weidman’s kicks were really starting to take their toll. But the fact that Rockhold was able to beat Weidman so badly on the ground is a sign that Weidman was hurting too. That wheel kick is one of the dumbest things I’ve seen in a big fight in a while.

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