Fantasy Fights

Intelligent, unique MMA analysis

UFC on Fox Orlando: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

2015 PICKS

Last event: 6-6 (50.0%)

Year to date: 297-158 (65.3%)

 

UFC ON FOX ORLANDO – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES

Favorite % Underdog %
 Rafael Dos Anjos 68.5% Donald Cerrone 31.5%
 Junior Dos Santos 71.1% Alistair Overeem 28.9%
 Michael Johnson 67.7% Nate Diaz 32.3%
 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 51.9% Randa Markos 48.1%
 Myles Jury 60.7% Charles Oliveira 39.3%
 C.B. Dollaway 65.4% Nate Marquardt 34.6%
 Sarah Kaufman 75.4% Valentina Shevchenko 24.6%
 Josh Samman 67.5% Tamdan McCrory 32.5%
 Nik Lentz 53.2% Danny Castillo 46.8%
 Jim Alers 50.7% Cole Miller 49.3%
 Kamaru Usman 62.7% Leon Edwards 37.3%
 Vicente Luque 62.0% Hayder Hassan 38.0%
 Luiz Henrique 51.0% Francis Ngannou 49.0%

I have to give the UFC a lot of credit. This is a pay-per-view quality fight card and it’s being broadcast on FOX tomorrow. When the UFC originally struck a deal with FOX, I thought it meant getting cards like this with each FOX event. That hasn’t quite been the case but this event is a very good one.

The model is picking two underdogs to win: newcomer Karolina Kowalkiewicz and -105 underdog Luiz Henrique (who is taking on -115 favorite Francis Ngannou). There isn’t a huge discrepancy between the model and the betting lines for this event, but there are a couple underdogs the model likes more than the betting lines, particularly Nate Diaz and Nate Marquardt.

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO

Last event: -$0.49

Current bankroll: $288.99

Total investment: $1,867.12

Total profit: $188.99

Return on investment: 10.1%

Last week was very rough as I suffered huge losses on the Thursday and Friday events and a trivial loss at UFC 194. Fortunately, wins on Court McGee, Demian Maia, and Leonardo Santos made up for losing bets on Chris Weidman and Frankie Saenz at UFC 194.

For this event I have…

Sarah Kaufman -145: $27.55 to win $19.00

Karolina Kowalkiewicz +185: $14.61 to win $27.03

Vicente Luque -115: $9.36 to win $8.14

Nate Marquardt +355: $8.06 to win $28.61

Nate Diaz +375: $6.95 to win $26.06

Josh Samman -175: $4.97 to win $2.84

Rafael Dos Anjos -190: $3.96 to win $2.08

Leon Edwards +210: $3.36 to win $7.06

If both Kaufman and Kowalkiewicz win, it will be a good outcome no matter what. If either of them win then it can’t be that bad. If they both lose then it’s time to flip the table.

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

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5 responses to “UFC on Fox Orlando: Degenerate Gambler’s Corner

  1. Howard Morton December 18, 2015 at 4:20 pm

    I like the Ukranian and Polish girls to pick up victories.

  2. Nick December 20, 2015 at 4:27 pm

    Hi David – Have an awesome holidays and New Years. Night of the underdogs…was a great night of fights.

  3. r.mattioli December 20, 2015 at 8:33 pm

    good effort….merry Christmas ….

  4. Nick December 21, 2015 at 11:42 am

    HI David, are you going to be putting up a Degenerate Gambler’s Corner for UFC 195? =)

    • Howard Morton December 23, 2015 at 2:20 pm

      Nope. He is done. Williams said he is shutting down the blog. RDA v. Cowboy was the last event of 2015. Sayanora. 😞😞😞😞

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