- @bangkokfrog Thank you and good luck! 1 year ago
- @jf757 Model favors Choi and Gastelum to win those fights 1 year ago
Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
Last event: 6-6 (50.0%)
Year to date: 297-158 (65.3%)
UFC ON FOX ORLANDO – STATISTICAL MODEL ESTIMATES
|Rafael Dos Anjos||68.5%||Donald Cerrone||31.5%|
|Junior Dos Santos||71.1%||Alistair Overeem||28.9%|
|Michael Johnson||67.7%||Nate Diaz||32.3%|
|Karolina Kowalkiewicz||51.9%||Randa Markos||48.1%|
|Myles Jury||60.7%||Charles Oliveira||39.3%|
|C.B. Dollaway||65.4%||Nate Marquardt||34.6%|
|Sarah Kaufman||75.4%||Valentina Shevchenko||24.6%|
|Josh Samman||67.5%||Tamdan McCrory||32.5%|
|Nik Lentz||53.2%||Danny Castillo||46.8%|
|Jim Alers||50.7%||Cole Miller||49.3%|
|Kamaru Usman||62.7%||Leon Edwards||37.3%|
|Vicente Luque||62.0%||Hayder Hassan||38.0%|
|Luiz Henrique||51.0%||Francis Ngannou||49.0%|
I have to give the UFC a lot of credit. This is a pay-per-view quality fight card and it’s being broadcast on FOX tomorrow. When the UFC originally struck a deal with FOX, I thought it meant getting cards like this with each FOX event. That hasn’t quite been the case but this event is a very good one.
The model is picking two underdogs to win: newcomer Karolina Kowalkiewicz and -105 underdog Luiz Henrique (who is taking on -115 favorite Francis Ngannou). There isn’t a huge discrepancy between the model and the betting lines for this event, but there are a couple underdogs the model likes more than the betting lines, particularly Nate Diaz and Nate Marquardt.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: -$0.49
Current bankroll: $288.99
Total investment: $1,867.12
Total profit: $188.99
Return on investment: 10.1%
Last week was very rough as I suffered huge losses on the Thursday and Friday events and a trivial loss at UFC 194. Fortunately, wins on Court McGee, Demian Maia, and Leonardo Santos made up for losing bets on Chris Weidman and Frankie Saenz at UFC 194.
For this event I have…
Sarah Kaufman -145: $27.55 to win $19.00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz +185: $14.61 to win $27.03
Vicente Luque -115: $9.36 to win $8.14
Nate Marquardt +355: $8.06 to win $28.61
Nate Diaz +375: $6.95 to win $26.06
Josh Samman -175: $4.97 to win $2.84
Rafael Dos Anjos -190: $3.96 to win $2.08
Leon Edwards +210: $3.36 to win $7.06
If both Kaufman and Kowalkiewicz win, it will be a good outcome no matter what. If either of them win then it can’t be that bad. If they both lose then it’s time to flip the table.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my bets. Any bets you make are done at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!