We’ve reached the end of 2015, so let’s review the last 12 months of UFC predictions and degenerate gambling.
Last event: 5-7 (41.7%)
Picks for year: 302-165 (64.7%)
For the year, the statistical model I developed correctly predicted the outcome of about 65 percent of UFC fights. That record compares quite favorably to the record of a lot of people who make predictions (without naming any names). My previous attempts to use stats to make predictions for UFC fights ended up ranging between a 58 percent accuracy and a 63 percent accuracy, so this is a pretty good improvement.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER – SEASON TWO
Last event: +$56.04
Current bankroll: $345.03
Total investment: $1,945.94
Total profit: $245.03
Return on investment: 12.6%
It’s nice to end the year on a winning note, especially considering how awful my picks were for the previous week’s three UFC events of doom. My biggest bet at UFC on Fox was on Sarah Kaufman, who actually lost to Valentina Shevchenko, but I made up for that loss with three big underdog wins: Karolina Kowalkiewicz +185, Nate Marquardt +355, and Nate Diaz +375.
Here is a chart showing how my gambling picks did for the year:
As you can see, my bankroll grew at a tremendous rate in the first half of the year. That’s largely thanks to big underdog wins on guys like Frankie Saenz (+600 vs. Iuri Alcantara), Rafael Dos Anjos (+425 vs. Anthony Pettis), and Maryna Moroz (+600 vs. Joanne Calderwood).
The second half of the year was much more about ebbs and flows. Both big spikes above were immediately followed by nasty losing streaks. On the whole, I just about broke even in the second half of the year. People who gamble on fights are expected to lose money over time, so that’s still not so bad, but obviously the point is to keep growing the bankroll.
In 2016 (and going forward) I’m going to place all of my analysis on my Twitter account @dwilliamsmma. That means all of the model estimates and degenerate gambling picks will be there, starting with UFC 195 this week. You can always feel free to send me a tweet or an e-mail (firstname.lastname@example.org) if you have any questions.
Thanks very much for reading, and here’s hoping for a happy and successful 2016!