UFC 166 Prediction: Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez

 

It seems nobody is buying Diego Sanchez as a legitimate contender at lightweight in 2013. It’s bad enough that Sanchez opened as a +260 underdog against Gilbert Melendez, but three months of the public betting on Melendez has made Sanchez a huge underdog at +550. However, when I look at how Melendez matches up with Sanchez I can’t justify favoring Melendez by such a wide margin.

The most important thing for Sanchez in this fight is to get his takedown game working. That’s because Melendez’s first two career losses can be blamed on a lack of effective takedown defense. Melendez was taken down seven times in a loss to Mitsuhiro Ishida in Japan and six times in a loss to Josh Thomson in Strikeforce. While Melendez has an effective career takedown defense rate of 72 percent, he has been taken down 32 times total.

Melendez isn’t the easiest fighter to take down but it’s been done plenty of times before. It’s a particularly tough task for Sanchez, who has not been a good offensive wrestler in the UFC. He has landed only 22 percent of his takedown attempts in the UFC, including an infamous 0 for 27 showing in his championship fight against Penn. Overall, Sanchez has landed 30 takedowns in 21 fights. If he can land at least two or three takedowns on Melendez it will go a long way towards potentially stealing a decision victory.

Sanchez does have a history of winning controversial decisions. In his last fight, Sanchez was awarded a split decision victory against Takanori Gomi while every media score collected by MMADecisions.com gave the fight to Gomi. Against Martin Kampmann, Sanchez won by unanimous decision despite being out-struck by a 77-51 margin. Back at UFC 60, Sanchez defeated John Alessio by unanimous decision despite landing just nine significant strikes and one takedown in 15 minutes. It’s possible that Sanchez could win by controversial decision yet again if he can land a couple well-timed takedowns on Melendez.

On the other hand, if Melendez shuts down Sanchez’s takedown game entirely then whatever chance Sanchez has of winning such a decision will be greatly diminished. Almost every striking metric favors Melendez by a significant margin.

Both fighters are very difficult to finish. Seven of their combined eight losses have been by decision. Only once has Sanchez lost by TKO, and that was a doctor stoppage due to a deep cut suffered by Sanchez in the fifth round of his fight against Penn.

In a fight that’s likely to go to decision Sanchez needs to give the judges a reason to score the fight in his favor. If all he does is get out-struck for three rounds by Melendez then it’s unlikely Sanchez would be able to win another “gift” decision. There’s very little in the striking statistics to suggest that Sanchez can win on points in a match that stays standing.

Overall, the potential for Sanchez to win a decision based on a combination of aggressive striking and well-timed takedowns needs to be acknowledged. His chances of winning this fight are better than the betting public is giving him credit for. At the same time, Melendez is clearly the superior overall fighter. He’s the more efficient striker and has superior takedown offense and defense. Melendez should be considered a strong favorite to win on points in this match, but not so much that he should be an 8-1 favorite to win the fight.

Pick: Gilbert Melendez by decision

UFC on Fox 7 Stats Breakdown

It’s time to dig into the Fight Metric statistics of the fighters scheduled to compete on the main card of UFC on Fox 7 on Saturday:

UFC Lightweight Championship Match: Benson Henderson vs. Gilbert Melendez

• Melendez has a significant strike margin of +1.48 per minute, compared to +1.39 for Henderson.
• On a per 15 minute basis, Henderson lands 3.2 takedowns in 6.3 attempts, while Melendez lands 1.9 takedowns in 4.4 attempts.
• Henderson averages 1.02 submission attempts per 15 minutes, compared to just 0.3 for Melendez.

If Gilbert Melendez wants to beat Benson Henderson to become UFC lightweight champion, the striking game is probably his best bet. Melendez and Henderson have very similar overall striking numbers, but if Melendez can keep this fight standing, there’s a good possibility that he can out-point Henderson. If Henderson succeeds in mixing in takedowns to go along with his striking, he’ll be much more likely to win a decision.

Heavyweight Match: Daniel Cormier vs. Frank Mir

• Cormier has a very high significant strike margin of +2.50 per minute, far better than Mir’s margin of -1.38.
• Mir gets hit by 60% of significant strikes thrown at him, compared to just 29% for Cormier.
• On a per 15 minute basis, Mir normally lands 2.8 takedowns in 6.0 attempts, but Cormier has never been taken down in an MMA fight.

On paper, this is a nightmare match-up for Frank Mir. Cormier should have a massive advantage in both wrestling and striking. Mir probably will need to finish Cormier if he wants to win this fight, but if he can’t take Cormier down, he won’t win by submission, and it’s hard to see Mir winning by knockout either.

Lightweight Match: Nate Diaz vs. Josh Thomson

• Diaz has a significant strike margin of +0.87 per minute, compared to +0.63 for Thomson.
• Per 15 minutes, Thomson lands an average of 1.7 takedowns in 4.3 attempts. Diaz only succeeds in defending 46% of takedowns attempted against him.
• Diaz has attempted 22 submissions in his Fight Metric career, and has had nine attempted against him, but nobody has attempted a submission against Diaz since his loss to Joe Stevenson in June 2009.

I’ve thought for a while that Josh Thomson is a badly underrated fighter, and I still feel that way, even after Thomson took Gilbert Melendez to a very close decision in May of last year. Diaz figures to have the advantage against Thomson as long as the fight stays standing, but if Thomson can land takedowns, he can absolutely win this fight. Diaz is active with submission attempts on the ground, but Thomson has never been submitted in his 24 fight career.

Welterweight Match: Matt Brown vs. Jordan Mein

• Mein has a significant strike margin of +1.49 per minute, compared to +1.13 for Brown.
• Per 15 minutes, Brown lands an average of 1.8 takedowns in 3.8 attempts, while Mein has not a landed a takedown in the four fights of his that have been tracked by Fight Metric.
• Mein successfully avoids 74% of the significant strikes thrown against him, compared to 58% for Brown.

Matt Brown figures to be a very tough opponent for Jordan Mein. Mein is the better striker on paper, and probably figures to have better conditioning as well. But Mein’s takedowns and takedown defense are big concerns, and if Brown can land takedowns in this fight, he could definitely win on the judges’ scorecards, if not force Mein to tap out due to a submission hold. Either way, this figures to be a fun, action-packed fight, which is probably why the UFC chose this fight to open the Fox main card.

So if the stats are any indication, it looks like we’re going to have three very competitive fights, and one not-so-competitive fight (Cormier-Mir). Stay tuned for more coverage of UFC on Fox later this week!

The Ultimate Fighter 17 Episode Two Preview: Fighter Ratings Complete

I’ve just finished work on a new method for rating competitors on The Ultimate Fighter. To do so, I gathered all the data I possibly could on TUF competitors of the past, and tested each and every data point to find out what had predictive value.

Out of everything I put into my SPSS program, it returned a grand total of two statistics that were decent predictors of a fighter’s performance.

The first was a variant of an early version of SILVA. This version of SILVA worked by simply giving each fight on a fighter’s record a rating based on the record and strength of schedule of the opponent. Wins were given a positive score, losses a negative score, and draws could be either positive or negative, depending on the strength of the opponent. The resulting SILVA score was the average of every individual fight rating.

The other decent predictor was a fighter’s ELO rating, as displayed in my top 25 rankings here on this blog.

I already published the ELO ratings of all 14 fighters who have made it into the house. That list is as follows:

TUF 17 ELO RATINGS

1. Tor Troeng – 2403
2. Robert McDaniel – 2268
3. Uriah Hall – 2160
4. Zak Cummings – 2110
5. Josh Samman – 2102
6. Luke Barnatt – 2086
7. Dylan Andrews – 2062
8. Kevin Casey – 2021
9. Clint Hester – 1931
10. Gilbert Smith – 1917
11. Kelvin Gastelum – 1833
12. Jimmy Quinlan – 1796
13. Adam Cella – 1783
14. Collin Hart – 1732

One good way to think of ELO ratings is a way of measuring a fighter’s divisional relevance – fighters with high ELO ratings tend to have had more recent success. This is exemplified by Tor Troeng, who is 11-1-1 in his last 13 fights, and “Bubba” McDaniel, who is on a six-fight winning streak and is 8-1 in his last nine.

Now, here is the list of fighters, with their ratings according to the SILVA variant:

SILVA VARIANT

1. Zak Cummings – 37.62
2. Uriah Hall – 30.77
3. Luke Barnatt – 29.68
4. Josh Samman – 28.30
5. Tor Troeng – 26.14
6. Dylan Andrews – 24.55
7. Jimmy Quinlan – 23.28
8. Kevin Casey – 22.49
9. Clint Hester – 21.85
10. Gilbert Smith – 21.37
11. Kelvin Gastelum – 20.50
12. Robert McDaniel – 19.86
13. Adam Cella – 19.17
14. Collin Hart – 17.51

Another way to think of these SILVA scores is as an estimate of how successful a fighter will be based on his first 12 fights. Fighters who are SILVA success stories – Daniel Cormier, Chris Weidman, Johny Hendricks, and Chad Mendes, to name a few – all rated at 45.00 or higher in this metric.

I believe that the best predictor would be to combine SILVA with ELO. In other words, to combine the estimate of a fighter’s potential with the estimate of that fighter’s real-world accomplishments.

Here is the resulting list:

OVERALL TUF 17 RATINGS

1. Zak Cummings – 8.022 (Team Sonnen)
2. Uriah Hall – 7.383 (Sonnen)
3. Tor Troeng – 7.348 (Sonnen)
4. Luke Barnatt – 7.127 (Sonnen)
5. Josh Samman – 7.009 (Jones)
6. Dylan Andrews – 6.532 (Jones)
7. Robert McDaniel – 6.421 (Jones)
8. Kevin Casey – 6.234 (Sonnen)
9. Clint Hester – 5.995 (Jones)
10. Gilbert Smith – 5.917 (Jones)
11. Jimmy Quinlan – 5.893 (Sonnen)
12. Kelvin Gastelum – 5.655 (Sonnen)
13. Adam Cella – 5.428 (Jones)
14. Collin Hart – 5.154 (Jones)

Despite all the work I’ve put in to this, these rankings still have to be taken with a grain of salt (or maybe even a shaker full of salt). The first reason is that there just isn’t a long enough history of TUF fights to draw precise conclusions about the accuracy of this model. The second is that there will always be a lot of variance – even if these ratings are a perfect measure of how good these fighters are (not even close), stuff happens. Upsets happen. Like I’ve said before, there was no information anywhere that would have suggested that Colton Smith would win the last season of TUF. At some point, I have to acknowledge that my attempts to rate these fighters and predict these fights will only get so good.

By performing a binary logistic regression on past TUF fights (you have to be a true stats nerd to know what that is), I’m able to translate these ratings into a probability of one fighter winning against another. Again, take it with a lot of salt.

With the disclaimers out of the way, my estimate is that Luke Barnatt has a 77 percent chance to beat Gilbert Smith in the first announced fight. At first glance, it appears to be a poor first fight choice for Team Jones. But I’m saying that with a completely unproven model. We’ll find out what happens in the second episode.

SILVA Scores Release – 7/28

IN THIS POST

• Carlos Condit
• Pat Curran
• Frankie Edgar
• Rashad Evans
• Bibiano Fernandes
• Demetrious Johnson
• Tatsuya Kawajiri
• Ian McCall
• Gilbert Melendez
• Alistair Overeem

 

Rashad Evans – SILVA score: 88.74

Evans has a lot of great victories throughout his career, mixed in with a few lackluster performances. He’s a very talented athlete with skill in all areas, but he’s also not the most precise striker, and can be out-pointed (as Jon Jones did) or even knocked out (as Lyoto Machida did). I think Evans could maximize his talent by mixing in his wrestling with his striking more, similar to how Georges St-Pierre fights, but it could be that his merely above-average striking simply holds him back from being a champion in the UFC.

Pat Curran – SILVA score: 85.73

Part of the reason it’s hard to find compelling challengers for Jose Aldo in the UFC is that a lot of talented featherweights don’t fight there. Case in point: Pat Curran, who knocked out Marlon Sandro with a highlight-reel head kick to win one of Bellator’s tournaments, and followed up with a brutal KO of Joe Warren to become their featherweight champion. To illustrate my point about talented featherweights outside the UFC, consider that many believe Curran will lose to Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, and that Daniel Straus, Bellator’s latest tournament winner, is also a serious threat to win the title.

Carlos Condit – SILVA score: 85.55

Condit is on a five-fight winning streak, and the fighters he’s beaten are Jake Ellenberger, Rory MacDonald, Dan Hardy, Dong Hyun Kim, and Nick Diaz. That’s not a bad run right there. I definitely think Condit loses to a healthy Georges St-Pierre, but as I said in the last post, whether or not St-Pierre will be fully healthy is an open question.

Frankie Edgar – SILVA score: 85.09

Two things about Edgar make him such a difficult fighter to beat. One is his wrestling base, which is good enough to keep Edgar on his feet even against bigger, more powerful opponents. The other is his superior conditioning – when Edgar goes into the later rounds of a fight, he can maintain a high pace. So what happens when he takes on a bigger opponent with an equally good wrestling base and conditioning, like Benson Henderson? He goes down. I like Henderson to beat Edgar again in their upcoming fight, and get Edgar thinking about a run at 145 pounds.

Gilbert Melendez – SILVA score: 83.47

As much as I would love to see Melendez escape Strikeforce and challenge for the UFC title, I’m not sure he would be successful in such a challenge. Yes, Melendez has built a record of wins over great opponents like Shinya Aoki, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Josh Thomson, and Jorge Masvidal, but his most recent fight against Thomson seemed to expose him a little bit. If you’re skating by Josh Thomson (who I think is badly underrated), what does that say about your ability to beat somebody like Benson Henderson?

Tatsuya Kawajiri – SILVA score: 81.35

Should Kawajiri’s SILVA score really be higher than Chad Mendes? When Kawajiri is at his best, he’s a tough wrestler with good striking offense, but porous striking defense. Don’t worry: since Kawajiri has started fighting much weaker competition lately, his SILVA score will decline even if he keeps winning. And by decline, I mean plummet. Sorry, but you have to fight opponents better than Donald Sanchez and Drew Fickett if you want to stay near the top of the SILVA ratings.

Demetrious Johnson – SILVA score: 72.52

I’ve harped on this before, but Johnson built a reputation for being a good wrestler by taking down Miguel Torres repeatedly. Of course, everybody takes down Torres repeatedly, and Johnson couldn’t win the wrestling exchanges against Brad Pickett or Dominick Cruz. He stands a better chance at flyweight, but against future opponent Joseph Benavidez? I don’t like his chances.

Alistair Overeem – SILVA score: 71.59

Early versions of SILVA hated Overeem, rating him as a slightly above-average heavyweight by UFC standards. Then I switched to SILVA 1.1, and Overeem was rated in the top five. Now, with SILVA 2.1, Overeem is somewhere in the middle, and rated below Fabricio Werdum, who he beat in June last year. Of course, there’s an argument to be made that Werdum won that fight, and let’s face it, Overeem’s winning streak is just not that impressive, even with his most recent win against a badly faded Brock Lesnar. Sorry Alistair, but you still have a lot to prove.

Bibiano Fernandes – SILVA score: 66.72

For a while, it looked like Fernandes was going to sign with the UFC. Unfortunately, that fell through, which is too bad, because Fernandes represents the kind of talent the UFC bantamweight division needs. Keep in mind that, because the bantamweight division is relatively thin, a SILVA score of 66.72 rates among the top fighters there. Here’s hoping that Fernandes and the UFC get a deal done, because I’d love to see him compete at the highest levels of the sport.

Ian McCall – SILVA score: 39.58

As thin as the bantamweight division is, the flyweight division makes it seem like it’s completely flush with world-class talent. Since the UFC just recently started promoting flyweights, it will take time for the division to build itself up. In the meantime, fighters like Ian McCall will rate with a SILVA score of 39.58, which seems way off, but the vast majority of flyweights will probably rate below him. I really need a longer list of flyweights before I can pass judgment on McCall’s SILVA score.

I’m Alive, and Here to Talk About the Future of the UFC Lightweight Division

So remember when I said I would be active in the gap between UFC 136 and UFC 137? Woops.

But hopefully I’ll make it up to everybody with some spectacularly good insights into the world of MMA.

After Frank Edgar’s vanquishing of Gray Maynard at UFC 136, I think it’s very interesting to look at the lightweight division, to see what’s coming up in the future.

As usual when discussing such a thing, I’ll begin by listing the top 20 lightweights currently measured by SILVA. Keep in mind that SILVA is NOT a ranking system; this is estimating how good each fighter is, as opposed to measuring each fighter’s recent accomplishments:

1. Gilbert Melendez – 52.63
2. Frank Edgar – 52.05
3. Edson Barboza – 48.77
4. Gray Maynard – 48.69
5. Eddie Alvarez – 48.03
6. Shinya Aoki – 46.47
7. Jim Miller – 45.90
8. Paul Sass – 45.80
9. Jacob Volkmann – 44.61
10. Donald Cerrone – 43.49
11. Ben Henderson – 43.16
12. Kamal Shalorus – 40.29
13. Sean Sherk – 38.14
14. Clay Guida – 35.14
15. Anthony Njokuani – 34.21
16. Melvin Guillard – 33.21
17. Bart Palaszewski – 33.19
18. Charles Oliveira – 32.92
19. Evan Dunham – 32.54
20. Shane Roller – 32.51

Why 20 lightweights? Well, because the division is particularly deep, so I think it’s prudent to take a particularly deep look at it.

Frank Edgar just can’t get any respect, it seems. Despite beating previously top-rated Gray Maynard by KO at UFC 136, Edgar finds himself second in SILVA, behind Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez. That may or may not turn out to be an accurate rating, but they’re so close in SILVA that a fight between Edgar and Melendez should be viewed as a coin flip.

It appears that the UFC has been unable to move Melendez from Strikeforce to the UFC to take on Edgar, instead scheduling Melendez to defend his Strikeforce title against Jorge Masvidal later this year. If Melendez can’t challenge Edgar soon, who will? Let’s use process of elimination to narrow down the field.

Not ready: #3 Edson Barboza, #8 Paul Sass, #9 Jacob Volkmann, #15 Anthony Njokuani

These fighters have all won their last fight, but none of them have beaten the high-level opponent needed to be taken seriously as title contenders.

Recently lost: #4 Gray Maynard, #7 Jim Miller, #12 Kamal Shalorus, #16 Melvin Guillard, #18 Charles Oliveira, #19 Evan Dunham, #20 Shane Roller

These fighters have varying degrees of worthiness to be considered for a title shot, but will need to put together some wins before entering serious consideration.

Out of the UFC: #1 Gilbert Melendez, #5 Eddie Alvarez, #6 Shinya Aoki

Obviously, if you want a title shot in the UFC, you need to fight for the UFC first.

Long layoff: #13 Sean Sherk, #17 Bart Palaszewski

Not fighting is no way to keep yourself relevant in a division, unless your name is Rashad Evans.

The title picture

It’s amazing how well the process of elimination works sometimes. Simply using basic facts to remove fighters from immediate title consideration has left the following list:

• Frank Edgar
• Donald Cerrone
• Ben Henderson
• Clay Guida

Edgar is obviously the champion, leaving Cerrone, Henderson, and Guida. Hey, look! Ben Henderson and Clay Guida have a fight coming up on November 12th! How convenient!

Yes, I know, the idea that the winner of Henderson vs. Guida will be receiving a title shot is not earth-shattering, or unique, or cutting-edge news. It’s still good to have numbers and facts combine to suggest that this is a fight worthy of determining top contender status.

Meanwhile, Donald Cerrone has also built up some momentum, but it could be argued that he should be placed in the “not ready” group, as his best UFC win was against Charles Oliveira, followed by Paul Kelly and Vagner Rocha. Cerrone has a fight coming up on the 29th of this month against Dennis Siver. SILVA thinks Siver is overrated, giving him a SILVA score of just 30.51, but if Cerrone manages to beat him, it’s easy to see that win giving Cerrone some serious momentum in the court of public opinion.

Again, I don’t have anything here that will blow your mind, but it seems to me that events in the lightweight division will unfold as follows:

• If Gilbert Melendez gets the next title shot against Frank Edgar, then the winner of Henderson/Guida will fight Donald Cerrone (assuming Cerrone beats Dennis Siver) for the right to be the next title challenger after that.
• If Melendez doesn’t get the next title shot, it will go to the winner of Henderson/Guida, with Melendez probably getting the next title shot after that, leaving Cerrone having to wait a little longer.

I would bet on that second thing happening. Like I mentioned earlier, Melendez has a fight against Jorge Masvidal coming up in December, and I don’t know what his status would be from a contractual standpoint following that fight. The safe bet is to say that the Henderson/Guida winner gets the next title shot.

If I Could Put Together a Lightweight Grand Prix…

So after processing Eddie Alvarez’s SILVA score (a very high 48.03) I couldn’t help but notice that the lightweight division is flush with elite talent. It truly is the deepest division in MMA, and that got me to thinking: what would a grand prix featuring all of the sport’s top lightweights look like?

Here’s what a 16-man tournament would look like if I got to choose any 16 lightweight fighters I wanted:

#1 FRANK EDGAR VS. #16 JOHN MAKDESSI

Makdessi gets the last spot in this tournament, and is forced to fight the UFC champion. Edgar is known for high-volume boxing; it would be very interesting to see if Makdessi’s kicking style would force Edgar to change his game at all.

#8 CLAY GUIDA VS. #9 BEN HENDERSON

Two aggressive, high-octane fighters in what is almost a guarantee to be an exciting fight.

#5 JIM MILLER VS. #12 TAKANORI GOMI

This might be a harsh fight for Gomi at this point, but Gomi has powerful hands and good takedown defense: a blend of skills that might work against a tireless attacker like Miller.

#4 EDDIE ALVAREZ VS. #13 DENNIS SIVER

All the makings of a pure striking war.

#6 SHINYA AOKI VS. #11 PAUL SASS

It’s my tournament, which means Paul Sass gets an invite. And who wouldn’t want to see the battle between the two fighters most willing to pull guard in MMA?

#3 GILBERT MELENDEZ VS. #14 EDSON BARBOZA

You want to talk about a fun fight? Now THIS would be a fun fight.

#7 ANTHONY PETTIS VS. #10 MELVIN GUILLARD

Another nearly guaranteed striking battle, this time between former WEC lightweight champion, and the man who performed the “Showtime kick,” Anthony Pettis, against the hard-hitting Melvin Guillard.

#2 GRAY MAYNARD VS. #15 JACOB VOLKMANN

I know what you’re thinking: Jacob Volkmann? Again, it’s my tournament, and SILVA says that Volkmann is a win away from breaking into the elite tier at lightweight. With a wrestling background, Volkmann might have what it takes to give Maynard fits.

SILVA Comparison: UFC Champions vs. Strikeforce Champions

With SILVA scores for Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Nick Diaz having just been processed, I now have SILVA scores for all Strikeforce champions. I’m going to simply list the results and let the SILVA scores speak for themselves:

Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

UFC: Cain Velasquez – 56.49 SILVA

Strikeforce: Alistair Overeem – 32.37

Light-Heavyweight (205)

UFC: Jon Jones – 44.42

Strikeforce: Dan Henderson – 34.77

Middleweight (185)

UFC: Anderson Silva – 47.72

Strikeforce: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza – 33.03

Welterweight (170)

UFC: Georges St. Pierre – 56.65

Strikeforce: Nick Diaz – 30.66

Lightweight (155)

UFC: Frank Edgar – 50.23

Strikeforce: Gilbert Melendez – 52.69

SILVA 1.0 Analysis: Lightweights

Here are the new SILVA scores for the lightweight division:

THE ELITES

Gray Maynard: The only man to ever beat current UFC lightweight champion Frank Edgar, and there’s a strong argument to be made that he won the rematch as well. Maynard combines dominant wrestling with power punching to prove a very formidable opponent for anybody.

Gilbert Melendez: Has two losses in his career, and avenged both of those losses. Melendez has been fighting tough opponents for almost his entire career, and his aggressive, all-around attack is usually too much for his opponents to handle. Even when he loses, he puts up a very good fight in doing so.

Frank Edgar: The current UFC lightweight champion uses an effective blend of boxing and wrestling to keep his opponents off-balance. Edgar also has phenomenal cardio, which is probably his biggest advantage in such a deep division.

Jim Miller: In my opinion, the best fighter a lot of UFC fans don’t know about, although I suspect that’s beginning to change. Miller’s only two losses are to Gray Maynard and Frank Edgar, and against everybody else, he’s been too much to handle.

Edson Barboza: This is the first of three “shock” ratings in the elite class of the UFC lightweight division. Barboza is just 8-0, and was in a very close fight against Anthony Njokuani, but he arguably has the best Muay Thai at 155 pounds, and great takedown and submission defense as well. Barboza is the real deal, and is likely to become a force in the UFC down the road.

Shinya Aoki: Legitimately part of the elite group. Aoki hasn’t done it by being even a decent striker or wrestler, but he’s extremely good at eventually getting his opponent to the ground in one way or another, and once there, he is absolutely devastating. Aoki finds submission holds where other fighters wouldn’t think to even attempt one.

Paul Sass: The second of three “shock” ratings at 155. Sass has built a record of 11-0, with eight wins by triangle choke and two by heel hook. He has a low Fight Level, as his best win is against Mark Holst, but I’ll write a post eventually detailing the fighters that are most similar to Sass statistically. Hint: it’s a pretty impressive list.

Takanori Gomi: The third, and final, “shock” rating at lightweight. Gomi wouldn’t have been anything near a shock in the elite group five years ago, but since the collapse of PRIDE FC in 2007, Gomi has barely been treading water. Losses to Sergey Golyaev, Satoru Kitaoka, and more recently, Kenny Florian and Clay Guida, suggest that Gomi’s days of being an elite fighter are over. SILVA says that Gomi has one more chance to prove he can still be elite, but if he loses, his SILVA score will plummet badly.

CONTENDERS

Kamal Shalorus: Has one of the highest current Fight Levels in MMA, as his only loss was to an elite fighter in Jim Miller. Shalorus has power in his punches and very good wrestling, but sloppy striking technique probably holds him back.

Donald Cerrone: Everybody describes Cerrone as a Muay Thai striker, but he’s really a ground fighter. Most of his wins are by submission, and he was having some trouble with Paul Kelly before getting that fight to the ground and submitting him. Cerrone is a quality lightweight fighter… it’s just because of his ground game.

Shane Roller: The third straight former WEC fighter on this list was being out-pointed by Thiago Tavares when he landed a clean punch that knocked Tavares out. Roller will need to improve his striking if he wants to climb the ladder further.

Clay Guida: A perennially average UFC lightweight fighter who helped himself a lot by beating Takanori Gomi. Guida is a good wrestler, and fights with a lot of aggression, which he needs if he aspires to compete against the Gray Maynards of the world.

Jacob Volkmann: Probably rated a lot higher than most people’s opinion of him. Still, Volkmann is a very good wrestler/grappler whose two losses are to welterweights Martin Kampmann and Paulo Thiago. A win elevates Volkmann to the elite class, where he would become the fourth “shock” fighter in one division.

Anthony Njokuani: Surprised a lot of people, including myself, in standing toe to toe with Edson Barboza and almost winning. Njokuani looked like a very good fighter there, and SILVA rates Njokuani accordingly.

Tyson Griffin: I think Griffin is better than this, but he lost a very controversial decision to Nik Lentz in his last fight. Still, three straight losses indicate that Griffin isn’t quite UFC championship material.

Charles Oliveira: Drew the extremely tough Jim Miller in just his third UFC fight. While Miller submitted Oliveira with a first-round kneebar, Oliveira was still impressive in putting together a series of submission attempts. He’ll be a handful for anybody in the division.

Evan Dunham: Surprisingly lost to Melvin Guillard in a fight I expected Dunham would win relatively easily. Instead, Dunham was overwhelmed by Guillard’s speed and hands. Dunham is well-rounded but might not have quite the wrestling to be able to compete at the highest levels.

Matt Wiman: Thoroughly punished by the old SILVA for his first six wins taking places against fighters making their professional MMA debut. The new SILVA gives Wiman a lot more credit for his success at the UFC level, particularly his last win against Cole Miller.

THE THIRD TIER

Antonio McKee: There are going to be many lightweights in the third tier. We start with Antonio McKee, who was released by the UFC after just one loss, to Jacob Volkmann. It’s possible that McKee was underrated by losing to an underrated opponent, but word is that he was on the losing end of a very dull fight, which is more often the kiss of death for one-and-done UFC participants.

Nik Lentz: Established a reputation for being a painfully boring fighter, particularly in his win over Andre Winner. Actually fought an entertaining scrap against Waylon Lowe, which Lowe was winning, but Lentz pulled off the victory with a third-round guillotine choke submission.

Melvin Guillard: It’s very hard to quantify the impact of a team on a fighter’s performances, but Guillard has seemed to be very positively influenced by Greg Jackson’s camp. I still think that Guillard is toast when he faces a superior wrestler/grappler, but in a striking fight, he has a very good chance against anybody.

Marcus Davis: Recently cut from the UFC because he just lost too many fights. He was actually winning handily against Jeremy Stephens when he was suddenly knocked out. The KO, along with Davis’s advanced age of 37, signaled that his days of title contention were over.

Joe Stevenson: I like Stevenson a lot, but his recent losses aren’t even to high-level opponents. Being suddenly knocked out by Mac Danzig was alarming, and Stevenson had a lot of trouble wrestling and grappling against Danny Castillo. I’ll root for Joe “Daddy” to win his next fight, but he’s really hanging by a thread now.

Danny Castillo: Perhaps the best sign that WEC lightweights can compete in the UFC came when Castillo, not on anybody’s radar in terms of the WEC’s better fighters, won his UFC debut against the experienced Joe Stevenson.

Dennis Siver: A very strong fighter who has good (but not great) kickboxing and solid takedown defense. Exposed George Sotiropoulos at UFC 127, as Sotiropoulos seemed to be unable to handle the physical strength of Siver. Siver has probably reached his peak, as I don’t think he can handle the striking of guys like Edson Barboza, or the wrestling of guys like Gray Maynard.

Jeremy Stephens: One of the guys who seems to tread water in the UFC. Stephens is 6-4, mostly against other fighters in the middle of the UFC lightweight pack. The win over Marcus Davis was more of a red flag than anything, as Stephens was being completely out-pointed, and professes to be a striker.

Kurt Pellegrino: A grappler with OK striking and wrestling, but his grappling wasn’t as good as Nate Diaz or George Sotiropoulos. Pellegrino’s a tough opponent for most fighters, but it’s hard to see where the upside is.

Joe Lauzon: After being matched up with George Sotiropoulos, Lauzon said, paraphrasing, “I think the UFC hates me.” Come on Joe, you have the higher SILVA score! Lauzon took it to Sotiropoulos in that fight, but pushed the pace a bit too much, gassing out and eventually submitting.

Thiago Tavares: Getting knocked out by Shane Roller was horrible for Tavares’s MMA career. Tavares is good everywhere, but not exceptional anywhere, and beating the Pat Audinwoods of the world will only get you so far.

George Sotiropoulos: Crashed and burned in the new SILVA scores. Sotiropoulos won his first seven UFC fights, prompting me to endorse a top contender fight between him and Jim Miller. Instead, Sotiropoulos lost to Dennis Siver, and in hindsight, none of his UFC wins are against very good/elite fighters – his best wins are probably against Joe Lauzon and Joe Stevenson.

Spencer Fisher: Stand and bang extraordinaire. Except that Ross Pearson was better at it. Fisher had a nice run for a little while, and can still beat a lot of guys, but at this point in his UFC career, he’s starting to get left behind.

Ross Pearson: Somehow has an identical SILVA score to Fisher, but Fisher wins the tiebreaker with a higher rAP. Pearson is another stand and bang guy, but with suspect grappling. As far as TUF winners go, Pearson is pretty ordinary, and doesn’t seem to have the skills that would take him into true title contention.

Waylon Lowe: A very strong wrestler who is a bit too heavily muscled for his own good, as he tends to struggle with cardio. Lowe’s UFC wins are against Steve Lopez and Willamy Freire, so his UFC career is probably on thin ice.

Sam Stout: Yet another stand and bang specialist in the UFC. Stout might be the cleanest of them technically, but he’s lost too many fights to be anything more than undercard entertainment.

Mark Bocek: Made a very loud statement when he declared himself the best jiu-jitsu fighter in the UFC lightweight division. That might be true, but Bocek needs to prove it against somebody in the top half of the division before people will really take him seriously.

Yves Edwards: One of the most traveled fighters in MMA. Edwards has an entertaining style, which he calls “thug-jitsu,” but with 16 losses, it’s hard to see any sort of title run in his future. Edwards became distinguished as the first MMA fighter to know Cody McKenzie only wins by guillotine choke, AND not get caught by it anyway.

Dustin Hazelett: A grappling-based fighter who wasn’t nearly as good as Mark Bocek was at it. When a fighter is only above-average at one thing, and gets soundly beaten in that area, it doesn’t say good things about his future, and Hazelett was subsequently released.

Andre Winner: Yet another stand and bang guy, but Winner was thoroughly frustrated when Nik Lentz simply wouldn’t allow him to do it. Being knocked out by Dennis Siver didn’t help his case either. He’s slated to face Anthony Njokuani next, and if Njokuani’s fight against Edson Barboza is any indication, Winner is in big trouble again.

Paul Kelly: OK, I’m getting tired of saying so many fighters at lightweight “stand and bang,” but it just goes to show how many lightweights do it. Kelly was doing well against Donald Cerrone in his last fight, but was exposed when the fight went to the ground. Wins against fighters like T.J. O’Brien just aren’t good enough.

John Makdessi: Put on a striking clinic against Pat Audinwood, but sadly, it wasn’t broadcast on UFC 124 because the UFC decided to put Matt Riddle’s boxercising against Sean Pierson on instead (not complaining, just would’ve preferred to see Makdessi). Still, the point of effective striking is to finish your opponent, and Makdessi was unable to do that; SILVA isn’t thrilled about his chances going forward.

Gleison Tibau: Probably the most underrated lightweight by SILVA. Yet, Tibau still lacks a defining win, as wins against Terry Etim and Kurt Pellegrino don’t really jump off the page. I’m still perplexed at how defensively Tibau fights, as I’m under the impression that cutting so much weight is meant to overwhelm your opponents.

Pat Audinwood: It’s hard to see what Audinwood brings to the table that would lead to UFC success. Audinwood has four wins by submission, so I guess he’s a ground guy, but you need to take your opponent there first.

Cole Miller: Old SILVA thought Miller was a good bet against Matt Wiman. I happened to agree, thinking Miller’s length would be too much of a problem. New SILVA, on the other hand, had it right, and Wiman was just too physical for Miller. It’s hard to get enthusiastic about Miller’s career after that one.

Michael Johnson: The runner-up of TUF 12 has good wrestling, and power in his punches, but a VERY suspect gas tank. Johnson is still the highest rated TUF 12 competitor in the UFC, but at 8-5, any more losses will seriously jeopardize his status as a competitive UFC fighter.

Mac Danzig: Looked like he would be in serious danger of being cut from the UFC when he suddenly knocked out Joe Stevenson. Danzig is a solid veteran with good grappling skills, but often struggles to take his opponents down, and his striking will only go so far.

REGIONAL SUPERSTARS

Gabe Ruediger: Nothing I did caused Ruediger to be rated lower than this, so I’ll just have to live with it. Ruediger doesn’t have striking or wrestling, meaning he can’t really compete in the UFC.

Maciej Jewtuszko: Wow. Well, old SILVA liked Jewtuszko a lot, and perhaps new SILVA underrates him a bit, given that he outstruck Anthony Njokuani in the WEC. However, losing to Curt Warburton hurts really bad.

Willamy Freire: Being a striker, and fighting a wrestler, is the simplest litmus test of a fighter’s ability to compete in the UFC. Freire was taken down repeatedly by Waylon Lowe, and showed no ability to handle it by either defending the takedowns, or threatening submissions or sweeps. So, Freire was released.

T.J. O’Brien: Lost in the preliminaries of TUF 12 by knockout to Marc Stevens. Believe it or not, all 16 of O’Brien’s wins are by submission, but he wasn’t able to submit Paul Kelly.

Paul Taylor: Let’s all say it together now! “Another stand and bang guy.” The problem is that, with a low rAP AND a low Fight Level, Taylor doesn’t have all that much going for him.

Jonathan Brookins: This is a harsh place for the winner of TUF 12 to be, but Brookins showed serious striking deficiencies against Michael Johnson and even Kyle Watson on the show. Watson isn’t a great striker, and Johnson ran out of gas; most prospective UFC opponents won’t be so flawed.

Cody McKenzie: Dropped like a rock with the release of SILVA 1.0. So what differentiates a fighter like Cody McKenzie, who’s built his career on one move, from a fighter like Paul Sass, who’s built his career on one move? The difference is that Sass has been fighting decent/good opponents his entire career, whereas McKenzie has been fighting bad/awful opponents.

Kyle Watson: Has decent wrestling/grappling skills, but has too many losses to mediocre opponents for SILVA to endorse the idea of a successful UFC career for him.

Aaron Wilkinson: The best thing I can say about Wilkinson is that he’s “game.” However, he knew all about Cody McKenzie’s guillotine choke, and was caught in it anyway.

Mark Holst: Paul Sass’s first UFC victim. I’ll be honest… that’s all I really know about him, although I think he’s since retired from MMA.

Curt Warburton: Scored a very quiet huge upset when he beat Maciej Jewtuszko. Consider that his SILVA score is so low despite that win. Warburton bought himself time with that victory, but he’ll only last so long in the UFC anyway.

Mike Lullo: His UFC debut was on short notice… against Edson Barboza. I can’t imagine it was pleasant, as Lullo’s leg was kicked into oblivion, but he did survive to round 3, which is worth something.

Sako Chivitchian: Entered TUF 12 5-0, which resulted in a good old SILVA score. None of the wins were against even average opponents (and keep in mind that average in pro MMA is worse than Phil Baroni… think James McSweeney). So, new SILVA declared a strong dislike of Chivitchian, and it’s appropriate, as he lost his TUF 12 finale match with Kyle Watson.

Should Strikeforce Lightweight Champion Gilbert Melendez Be Favored Over UFC Lightweight Champion Frank Edgar?

Melendez isn’t actually slated to fight Edgar yet; first, Edgar and rival Gray Maynard need to have their rubber match. Earlier, Nick Thomas of Bloody Elbow stated that betting odds on a prospective fight between Melendez and Edgar were posted, with Melendez being slightly favored. Thomas then stated that Edgar “gets no respect.”

I’ve begun processing the SILVA scores of top 25 fighters not currently included in the system, meaning that UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, and UFC trash-talk champion Chael Sonnen are all now included. Today, coincidentally, was Gilbert Melendez’s turn to get a SILVA score. Here’s how SILVA sees a fight between Melendez and Edgar:

• Favorite: Gilbert Melendez – 52.69 SILVA
• Underdog: Frank Edgar – 50.23 SILVA

As it turns out, SILVA aligns with the prospective betting odds almost perfectly. As it turns out, Edgar being a consistent underdog isn’t because he gets no respect; it’s because, when he’s matched up against Gray Maynard or Gilbert Melendez, he’s facing the very best lightweight fighters in the world.

Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley Main Card Preview

This is the date that the second half of the first round of Strikeforce’s Heavyweight Grand Prix was originally scheduled to take place. Instead, presumably because of licensing issues with Josh Barnett, that has been postponed to June. However, Strikeforce has not disappointed with the fight card they’ve put together. Tonight’s fights feature two Strikeforce championship matches, along with two great fights with highly ranked fighters. Let’s break down the fights beginning at 7:00 PT/10:00 ET on Showtime:

 

1. 155 lbs: Shinya Aoki (26-5, 0-1 Strikeforce) vs. Lyle Beerbohm (15-1, 3-1 SF)

The battle of the fancy pants. Amazing. Both of these fighters are great ground specialists, but they’re also both coming off of losses. Aoki lost in a strange match with Yuichiro Nagashima that alternated kickboxing and MMA rounds; for what it’s worth, Nagashima knocked Aoki out in an MMA round. Beerbohm, on the other hand, lost to experienced MMA veteran Pat Healy, a fighter who seems to be better than his record. Now, Aoki and Beerbohm face each other. Beerbohm may have the advantage, as he’s accustomed to fighting under North American MMA rules. Aoki famously struggled and was frustrated against Gilbert Melendez a year ago in his first North American fight (in fairness, Melendez is very, very good). As much as I’d like to see a grappling war between these two, it seems that more often than not, a battle between grapplers ends up being either a bad kickboxing match or a clinch war. Two examples of this: one was Aoki against Vitor “Shaolin” Ribeiro, and another was Fabricio Werdum vs. Jon Olav Einemo. Hopefully, Aoki and Beerbohm will showcase what they can do on the ground. If not, I have to give the advantage to Beerbohm, as Aoki has no striking power at all. I’ll pick Aoki to win, because he has a lot more success against high-level opponents, and a better submission game, but given the setting, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Beerbohm scores the upset.

 

2. 205: Gegard Mousasi (30-3-1, 2-1 SF) vs. Keith Jardine (17-9-1, 0-0 SF)

It was one thing for Keith Jardine to lose his last four UFC fights before being cut. Combine that with his last two UFC victories being split decisions, and you get eight straight fights in which Jardine wasn’t able to win decisively (two wins, six losses). In fairness, the split decision win against Chuck Liddell really should’ve been unanimous. Regardless, it means that the last decisive victory for Jardine against a top fighter took place in December 2006 at UFC 66 against Forrest Griffin. Jardine’s weaknesses are well-documented: almost all of his offense comes from striking, and he has many holes in his striking game. Jardine’s been accused of having a weak chin, but Brent Brookhouse of Bloody Elbow argues that Jardine’s tendency to get knocked out is a product of bad striking defense, not a weak chin. He faces Gegard Mousasi, a very slick fighter who is very good in all areas. This is likely to be a striking battle, because both Jardine and Mousasi like to strike, and Mousasi is just much better at it. I have to go with Mousasi in this one.

 

3. Strikeforce lightweight title match: Gilbert Melendez (18-2, 8-1 SF) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (27-6-2, 0-0 SF)

It might be strange to see a fighter like Kawajiri contend for a title in a promotion he’s never fought for, but there are some very good reasons for Kawajiri being here. Chief among them is the fact that this is a rematch between two fighters who fought a genuine war at PRIDE Shockwave 2006. Melendez and Kawajiri both landed a high volume of powerful punches in that fight, and in the end, Melendez was seen as the more effective fighter, and awarded a decision. Melendez is good in all areas, but prefers to strike, is tough to take down, and is good at getting up if he is taken down. A fighter who wishes to beat Melendez will likely have to either win a striking war, or find a way to take him down and hold him down. Enter Tatsuya Kawajiri, who is very similar to Melendez in that he’s well-rounded but likes to strike. Kawajiri might be tempted to try to re-create the battle he fought with Melendez, but I think he’d be better served to focus on trying to take Melendez down. Kawajiri has a very strong ground and pound game, and if he’s able to take Melendez down and frustrate him with punches, he could be well on his way to winning the Strikeforce championship. I happen to think this becomes another striking war, which is great for the fans, but I think Melendez beats him again.

 

4. Strikeforce welterweight championship match: Nick Diaz (24-7, 5-0 SF) vs. Paul Daley (27-9-2, 1-0 SF)

One thing I want to get out of the way immediately: Paul Daley is a much better mixed martial artist than anybody Nick Diaz has yet fought in Strikeforce. The list of fighters Diaz has beaten: Frank Shamrock, Scott Smith, Marius Zaromskis, K.J. Noons and Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos. The problem for Daley is that he’s not much of a mixed martial artist. He packs a lot of power in his Muay Thai, but he struggles on the ground quite a bit. Daley should have the striking advantage here; Diaz has difficulty handling powerful, technical punchers. The problem is that Diaz is a very aggressive fighter; he’ll press forward until he either clinches or takes down Daley, where his jiu-jitsu is simply superior. In the end, it’s not a battle of strikers, and it’s not a battle of grapplers: it’s a battle of mixed martial artists. Daley is absolutely capable of knocking out Nick Diaz, but Diaz has the better overall game, and is a good bet to defeat Daley and retain his championship belt.