UFC on Fox 6 Post-Fight Analysis

This was a better night for my picks, going 7-4 after last week’s debacle. Here are my thoughts on the fights:

-Unsurprisingly, Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson came out and fought at a high pace. The difference was that Johnson was prepared to fight like that for five rounds, while Dodson could only fight three before fading. This fight showed a little bit of everything we knew about both fighters. It showed Dodson’s power, as he knocked Johnson down multiple times. It showed Johnson’s wrestling, as he was able to take Dodson down in almost every round. And it showed that, overall, Johnson is just a little bit better than Dodson is in every area except power. Dodson did threaten to end the fight in the second round, and he showed he has big-time talent in the flyweight division. As thin as that division is, we’ll probably see Dodson get another chance at the title in the future.

-It’s fair to say that Glover Teixeira is a top ten fighter in the light-heavyweight division. It’s also fair to say that a fellow top ten fighter would expose him. To a large extent, Quinton Jackson did some exposing, as even a badly fatigued Jackson was able to land some big punches to the head of Teixeira. Teixeira is talented in all areas of the sport, with power punches, takedowns, and submissions, but the man just gets hit too much. I’ve said it before – the single most important attribute a fighter can have is the ability to avoid being hit. That’s how fighters with marginal talent like Brian Ebersole are able to have UFC success. If Teixeira’s next fight is against somebody like Lyoto Machida or Alexander Gustafsson, I can’t see myself siding with Teixeira.

-We’ve probably seen Jackson fight in the UFC for the last time, and I think it’s the right time. Jackson has been on a slow decline for a number of years now, and no longer has the ability to defend takedowns or fight for three rounds without getting exhausted. All Jackson has left is power punching, and while his power is considerable, it’s not enough to win fights at a high level. It’s been a great MMA career for “Rampage,” but it’s the right time to call it quits.

-I went into the fight between Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone thinking it was a very close fight, but I gave the slight edge to Pettis. I’ve come out of it thinking Pettis is way better. It’s usually not a good idea to make broad assumptions based on one short fight, but Cerrone is just too easy to hit. Nate Diaz was able to put on a boxing clinic against him, and Pettis wouldn’t let Cerrone throw anything without eating a counter. Pettis might still be one fight away from a title shot since Gilbert Melendez is in the way; if that’s the case, I want to see him face a wrestler who will test his takedown defense.

–Erik Koch was doing well against Ricardo Lamas before making a huge mistake, trying to jump on an off-balance Lamas, and being put on his back. While there, Lamas just crushed Koch with punches and elbows. I don’t know what Koch was doing – perhaps trying to sweep – but he wasn’t moving his head or controlling the posture of Lamas at all. Lamas has now had to come back to win three times in a row, against Cub Swanson, Hatsu Hioki, and now Koch. It’s not a good omen if his next opponent is Jose Aldo, who would likely stuff Lamas’s takedowns and knock him out.

-I have to hand it to T.J. Grant. He’s looked fantastic at 155 pounds, and I’ll now acknowledge that I did him a disservice by being concerned about his takedown defense so much. I should have recognized that while Grant has lost UFC fights because of takedowns, they were all in the welterweight division, against larger opponents. Meanwhile, Matt Wiman looked awful. He looked “soft” and out of shape, didn’t attack with as much aggression as usual, and reacted horribly to being hit. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we find out he was fighting injured, and for his sake, I hope that’s the case, because otherwise, it really wasn’t a good performance for him.

-It’s official: if you’re an MMA fighter, it is impossible to win a round off your back. If it was possible, surely Hatsu Hioki would have been given a decision over Clay Guida. Hioki was the better boxer, and after being taken down, was looking for submissions and keeping Guida on the defensive. Guida had very little meaningful offense in the fight. Naturally, Guida won the split decision, including one 30-27 score for him.

-Takedowns are badly overvalued in the way fights are judged. Unless it’s a slam, a takedown serves as the means to an end. Scoring points for a takedown implies that it gives the fighter who lands it an advantage for the remainder of the round. But what if it doesn’t? What if, by landing a takedown, a fighter puts himself in more danger than his opponent? Usually, this isn’t the case, but if the opponent in question is a guy like Fabricio Werdum, Paul Sass, or Hatsu Hioki, it’s usually not a good idea to take that fighter down. If a fighter wants to win a round with a takedown, I want to see him do something with it. Even if it’s just landing some decent strikes, show me that the takedown is getting you somewhere. Otherwise, I don’t want rounds to be scored for a fighter just because of a takedown and top control.

–Pascal Krauss now has UFC victories against Mike Stumpf and Mark Scanlon, and a UFC loss to John Hathaway, in a fight Krauss took after a very long layoff. It’s hard to tell how good he really is based on those fights, since there’s a wide skill gap between Stumpf/Scanlon and Hathaway. To Krauss’s credit, he reduced Stumpf to little more than a punching bag, although he also absorbed more strikes than I would have liked to see. Hopefully we see Krauss take on a mid-level UFC veteran next time, so we can get a good handle on just how good he is.

–Vladimir Matyushenko has been fighting for what seems like forever, and when he faces a lower-level light-heavyweight in the UFC, he comes out on top. But what can I really say when, every time he faces a tougher opponent, he gets obliterated? Ryan Bader’s lightning-quick win really doesn’t tell us anything about either guy; it was just the expected result.

–Joe Rogan had it right: Mike Russow got excited, and gassed himself out by fighting too aggressively against Shawn Jordan. Russow had some great success early, tagging Jordan with a number of punches, but by the end of the first round, he was already fading. Jordan is a good athlete, but as a mixed martial artist… he’s a good athlete. Jordan came out on top against a fighter who was previously 15-2, so I don’t want to dump on him too much, but it’s not good to have to “weather the storm” against the hands of Mike Russow. Sadly, with the heavyweight division in the state it’s in, Russow and Jordan might both be top 25 fighters.

-I liked Sean Spencer’s movement and the way his punches looked. What I didn’t like was that he couldn’t get in the right punching range. Spencer’s strikes kept coming up just short. In the later rounds, it’s usually Rafael Natal who is desperate for oxygen, but instead, Spencer’s status as a short-notice replacement really showed, as it was Natal who was able to submit an exhausted Spencer. Hopefully, if Spencer goes back to 170 pounds and has a full training camp, he’ll be able to show a better performance next time.

-I thought that if David Mitchell stood with Simeon Thoresen, Thoresen would prove to be the better striker. Cue the game show buzzer sound for giving a wrong answer. Both fighters looked pretty bad at striking range; neither showed much ability to avoid eating punches, and neither was able to throw crisp strikes. But Mitchell was more aggressive than Thoresen, and was at least a little more mobile than Thoresen was. Mitchell and Thoresen are now both 1-2 in the UFC, and look for them to both be 1-3 in the UFC after their respective next fights.

UFC on Fox 6 Preview and Predictions

Let’s get right to it.

UFC Flyweight Championship Match: John Dodson (14-5, 3-0 UFC) vs. Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1, 4-1-1 UFC)

The main event features the little guys, as flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson will be defending his title against TUF 14 bantamweight winner John Dodson. I’ll come right out and say that I like Johnson to successfully defend his belt, but I do think it will be a very competitive fight. Both fighters here have a tremendous amount of speed – it may turn out to be the speediest fight in UFC history (by which I mean the speed of the fighters, not the duration of the bout). But when I break this fight down, I think Johnson is just a little bit better than Dodson in every area.

First is the striking. Both fighters are good at it, and Dodson’s UFC success has been achieved almost exclusively with striking so far. Dodson does have two wins by knockout in three UFC fights, which is remarkable for a 125 pound fighter. But I think he’ll have a hard time knocking out Demetrious Johnson in this fight. While both fighters are fast, I think Johnson is even faster than Dodson – I’ve never seen a fighter jump into the pocket, unleash a flurry, and get out of the pocket before his opponent can even counter as well as Johnson. Against Dodson, that figures to be one of his main advantages. It’s hard to land a KO punch when it’s hard to hit a fighter cleanly in the first place.

And if Dodson has a weakness, it’s probably his defense at striking range. It didn’t prove to be a weakness against either T.J. Dillashaw or Jussier da Silva, but Dodson had a difficult time with Tim Elliott at UFC on Fox 3, a fight in which Dodson was a 5-1 favorite. That’s not to say that Johnson hasn’t had his difficulties as well, but if Fight Metric is any indication, Johnson has out-struck his opponent in all of his WEC and UFC fights, and that includes opponents like Dominick Cruz.

What I feel will really set Johnson apart from Dodson is the takedown. Dodson typically chooses to stand and strike with his opponents. He’ll mix in a takedown occasionally, but only to keep his opponent honest more than anything. Johnson, on the other hand, is fairly busy with takedown attempts, and he’s pretty good at landing them. In a fight that otherwise figures to be competitive, Johnson can win rounds by landing well-timed takedowns.

Ultimately, Dodson has more than a reasonable chance of winning here. He does have the potential to win by KO, and the striking game is competitive enough that Dodson may be able to sneak by with a decision. But I have to favor Johnson to win, as I feel he matches up particularly well with Dodson. Johnson by decision.

205 pounds: Quinton Jackson (32-10, 7-4 UFC) vs. Glover Teixeira (19-2, 2-0 UFC)

In what may be Quinton “Rampage” Jackson’s last fight in mixed martial arts, he’ll be getting his wish. Instead of fighting a wrestler who figures to shut him down, he’ll be taking on perhaps the most aggressive fighter in the division in Glover Teixeira. All I can say is – be careful what you wish for.

It’s fair to call Teixeira a SILVA favorite, as my old rating system indicated that Teixeira was a top ten light-heavyweight before he made his UFC debut against Kyle Kingsbury at UFC 146. And he’s lived up to that billing, demolishing Kingsbury and inflicting a tremendous amount of punishment on Fabio Maldonado at UFC 153. Teixeira isn’t just good in all areas of the MMA game, he’s dangerous in all areas. He hits very hard, has good takedowns, and has a very good submission game as well. To make matters worse for his opponents, Teixeira attacks relentlessly from the opening bell. Teixeira’s skill set and aggression have served to make him one of the most hyped fighters in the light-heavyweight division.

And to a great extent, Teixeira deserves that hype. He genuinely is a very good, possibly elite light-heavyweight. But I can’t help but feel that Quinton Jackson isn’t quite getting the respect he deserves. Now, there are no shortage of reasons to not trust Jackson. He’s been very public about his desire to leave the UFC, he’s looked increasingly worse in recent fights, and in his last fight against Ryan Bader, he was overweight and put on an awful performance. Jackson is on the decline, and has been for a few years now.

The thing about Jackson is – you never know when he’s going to show up, and when he does, he can be very difficult to beat. Simply having tough takedown defense and KO power is a dangerous combination against a lot of fighters. When Jackson is motivated and in shape, he’s competitive against the best in the world. And for Glover Teixeira, it’s important to remember that, although he smashed Kingsbury and Maldonado, those guys are a far cry from Quinton Jackson as far as their fighting level is concerned.

Now, with all of that said, I do have to favor Teixeira to win here. Even if Jackson is at his best, Teixeira might be just a little bit better. But if Jackson is motivated, he has more than a decent chance to catch Teixeira and win by KO, or even win on points if Teixeira gasses out (and that’s a likelihood, given Teixeira’s frenetic pace). I’ll take Teixeira by submission, but if Jackson is in shape and motivated, I think it will be a lot more competitive than most fans are giving it credit for.

155 pounds: Donald Cerrone (19-4, 6-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Pettis (15-2, 2-1 UFC)

This is one of a number of very close fights on this card, and I’ve gone back and forth on who to pick. Both fighters are very good strikers with a kick-heavy offense, both have a slick submission game, and both have had a lot of success at a high level. The biggest difference between Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis is that, while Cerrone tends to be aggressive and fights at a high pace, Pettis typically fights at a somewhat slower pace and measures up his opponent more.

What bothers me about Cerrone is how often he gets hit. It’s not just the Nate Diaz fight either; even when he wins, Cerrone has the tendency to get hit by his opponent a lot. That’s trouble against Anthony Pettis, who has the kicking game to match Cerrone, but also has fairly good counter punches and decent defense. I anticipate this fight to become a striking match, and I think that both fighters will land more than their fair share of strikes, but I see Pettis landing with a little more consistency than Cerrone. Pettis by decision.

145 pounds: Erik Koch (13-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Ricardo Lamas (12-2, 3-0 UFC)

This figures to be a top contender match in the featherweight division, and it’s a good one. Both Erik Koch and Ricardo Lamas have been on my radar for a while now, and I consider them to be the third and fourth best featherweights in the UFC today (after Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes). A while ago, SILVA identified three featherweights it considered “elite”: Aldo, Mendes, and Koch. Lamas was not far behind. But in this particular fight, I find myself strongly favoring Koch.

The reason, as usual, is the style matchup. Ricardo Lamas is a well-rounded fighter with good wrestling, good submissions, and decent hands. Unfortunately for Lamas, he’s facing an opponent in Erik Koch who has better hands, more KO power, and very good takedown defense. I see Koch being able to stuff Lamas’s takedowns and out-strike him standing. And even though Lamas has beaten two very good featherweights in Hatsu Hioki, and Cub Swanson, he had to come from behind to win both times. I don’t see that happening against Koch. Koch by KO.

155 pounds: T.J. Grant (19-5, 6-3 UFC) vs. Matt Wiman (15-6, 9-4 UFC)

This is another very close fight between lightweights with similar skill sets. T.J. Grant and Matt Wiman are both very good on the ground, both have decent wrestling, and both have good striking. Overall, I think Grant has better hands – he was able to go toe-to-toe with Evan Dunham in his last fight, and he’s had a lot of success against some very good opponents. Where I favor Matt Wiman is the wrestling game; Wiman has underrated takedowns, and where Grant has lost in the UFC, it’s been against opponents who took him to the ground. Very close fight that can go either way, but I very slightly favor Wiman to win by decision.

145 pounds: Clay Guida (29-13, 9-7 UFC) vs. Hatsu Hioki (26-5-2, 2-1 UFC)

After 16 fights in the UFC lightweight division, Clay Guida is going to 145 pounds to take on master grappler Hatsu Hioki. Guida is favored for a simple reason – he’s the better wrestler of the two, and often, the best antidote to a good submission game is a good wrestler. But I think Hioki is very competitive here. In my view, Hioki has better boxing and a better submission game. Hioki also has very good sweeps and guard passes, and figures to make Guida’s job very difficult for him. I’ll take Guida by decision here, but if Hioki wins, I’ll be kicking myself for not going the other way.

205 pounds: Ryan Bader (14-3, 7-3 UFC) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6, 7-4 UFC)

This one is pretty straightforward. Both fighters here are good wrestlers with heavy hands. Unfortunately for Vladimir Matyushenko, Ryan Bader is the better wrestler with heavier hands. Bader is also the better striker at distance. Matyushenko will likely be unable to take this fight to the ground, which leaves the striking game, and leaves a KO punch as his most likely path to victory. But I think Bader winning by KO is a lot more likely. Bader by KO.

265 pounds: Shawn Jordan (13-4, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mike Russow (15-2, 4-1 UFC)

After Shawn Jordan was inexplicably favored to beat Cheick Kongo in his last fight, he’s now an underdog against Mike Russow, and that’s probably for the best. Neither fighter lights the world on fire with his striking, but Russow is easily the better wrestler here. If Russow could take down Jon Madsen, he can take down Shawn Jordan. At the very least, Russow should be able to win the clinch battle against Jordan. I hate to say this, but prepare for this fight to be pretty tough to watch. Russow by decision.

170 pounds: Pascal Krauss (10-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mike Stumpf (11-3, 0-1 UFC)

After Pascal Krauss beat Mark Scanlon at UFC 122, I remember identifying him as one of the better prospects in the UFC. Since then, he’s only fought once, a decision loss to John Hathaway. I’m not about to give up on him though. Against Mike Stumpf, I expect Krauss to be better in all areas, and I like Krauss to win the fight by submission, and hopefully move on to fight more regularly.

185 pounds: Rafael Natal (14-4-1, 2-2-1 UFC) vs. Sean Spencer (9-1, 0-0 UFC)

I can’t say I know a lot about UFC newcomer Sean Spencer, but from what I’ve seen, he has a pretty strong record, with a number of wins against good opponents. He is also fighting up a weight class on short notice against an aggressive fighter in Rafael Natal. Natal does have the tendency to wear himself out by the end of the second round, and if Spencer can weather the early storm against him, I can see some upset potential. For now, I’ll stay safe and pick Natal to win by submission.

170 pounds: David Mitchell (11-2, 0-2 UFC) vs. Simeon Thoresen (17-3-1, 1-1 UFC)

This is a battle of submission specialists, as David Mitchell and Simeon Thoresen have a combined 24 wins by submission. I just think Thoresen is better at it – from what I see, Thoresen is a little more well-rounded than Mitchell, with better hands and better takedowns. I like Thoresen to control Mitchell and win a decision here.

Some Thoughts On Recently Announced UFC Fights, Including Frank Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

So the UFC decided that it was going to unload a ton of fight announcements, including some very major ones, in a very short period of time. Now that my head’s stopped spinning, here are my quick thoughts about the fights that have been announced.

UFC 136 – Lightweight Title Match: Frank Edgar (50.23 SILVA) vs. Gray Maynard (54.05)

In the first fight between these two, Gray Maynard used his superior power and wrestling ability to stifle and frustrate Frank Edgar. In the second fight, Maynard bombarded Edgar early with power strikes, knocking Edgar down multiple times in the first round. Then Edgar came back against a fatigued Maynard to force a draw. It’s hard to see Edgar being able to deal with Maynard’s power this time around, but now that Edgar is experienced against Maynard, maybe he’ll find a way to wear Maynard out without taking too much damage.

UFC 136 – Featherweight Title Match: Jose Aldo (48.14) vs. Kenny Florian (36.54)

First, let me express disappointment that Chad Mendes isn’t getting this opportunity, after he was originally set to face Aldo at the upcoming UFC 133. With that said, I understand why the UFC wanted to put this fight together: Kenny Florian is a name that casual UFC fans know and recognize, and presumably would help introduce those fans to the new UFC featherweight division. Unfortunately for Florian, I see him becoming 0-3 in title fights after facing Aldo; I don’t see Florian either being able to handle Aldo’s striking or taking him down consistently enough.

UFC 133 – Light-Heavyweights: Alexander Gustafsson (33.76) vs. Matt Hamill (32.45)

Supposedly, Vladimir Matyushenko was going to be the UFC’s next choice to fight Rashad Evans if it turned out that both Lyoto Machida and Tito Ortiz turned the fight down. It’s a good thing Ortiz accepted, because now Matyushenko is out of his fight against Alexander Gustafsson. His replacement, Matt Hamill, needs a win very badly after his lackluster decision loss to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 130. This should be an interesting battle of striker vs. wrestler: I like Gustafsson a lot, but the one time he’s faced a great wrestler in the UFC, he lost to Phil Davis. Still, Hamill is not near Davis’s level, so this should be a close, competitive match.

UFC 136 – Middleweights: Demian Maia (44.11) vs. Jorge Santiago (32.75)

I recently speculated about Demian Maia’s UFC future, suggesting that the top two potential opponents for him were Jorge Santiago and Chris Leben. I then stated that I felt a fight against Leben was more likely. As I usually am when predicting future matchmaking, I was wrong. Maia will, in fact, face Santiago, who is just 1-3 in his career in the UFC. While some may suggest that Santiago will have an advantage in the striking department, Maia did quite well for himself against Mark Munoz at UFC 131. With Santiago’s weak chin, there’s a real chance Maia wins this by TKO. Of course, Santiago will not want to play the ground game with Maia, so on paper, I think this is a good fight for Maia and a bad fight for Santiago. Full disclosure: I’m a huge fan of Demian Maia.

UFC 136 – Lightweights: Melvin Guillard (31.54) vs. Joe Lauzon (29.92)

This seems to be a strange fight for Melvin Guillard to lobby for if he wants to fight for the title, as Joe Lauzon isn’t really in title contention right now. Despite that, Lauzon represents a better test of Guillard’s ground game than any of Guillard’s recent opponents. If Guillard wins this fight, and I think he will, I anticipate that he’ll move way up the ladder for his next fight. Still, time may be running out for Guillard; the 9-year rule strikes for him in November.

UFC 137 – Heavyweights: Cheick Kongo (29.79) vs. Matt Mitrione (50.40)

I’ve thought for quite a while now that Cheick Kongo is something of a fraud; his UFC wins tend to be against guys like Mustapha Al-Turk and Dan Evensen. When Kongo faces fringe UFC opponents like Heath Herring and Pat Barry, he either loses or comes very close to it. When he faces high-level opponents like Frank Mir, he gets smoked.

I love Mitrione to win big here. Mitrione represents a blend of power and striking that Kongo hasn’t faced yet; the most similar opponent he’s had is probably Travis Browne, but I happen to think Mitrione is just plain better than Browne is. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Mitrione wins in round 1.

UFC 137 – Heavyweights: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27.03) vs. Roy Nelson (30.48)

I thought Cro Cop should have retired after losing by KO in the third round to Brendan Schaub, and him being matched up against Roy Nelson doesn’t change my opinion. I’ve completely given up on the idea of “the old Cro Cop” showing up, so that probably means that his fight against Nelson will be often spent in the clinch, and has a high chance of being particularly awful. If recent history is any indication, Nelson will get a KO late in the third round after Cro Cop puts up “not that bad of a fight.”

UFC 136 – Heavyweights: Dave Herman (26.72) vs. Mike Russow (35.83)

It’s very hard to get a hold of how good Russow is at this point. He got obliterated for two and a half rounds by Todd Duffee before landing a KO punch out of nowhere. While that makes for an amazing highlight moment, it doesn’t bode well for Russow’s future as a UFC contender. Against Dave Herman, he’ll definitely want to take the fight to the ground; I think Russow will be good enough to win a decision in this one.

UFC 136 – Featherweights: Matt Grice (30.16) vs. Josh Grispi (26.62)

I have a secret suspicion that Joe Silva puts together fights based on the alphabet. Other random examples: Nik Lentz vs. Waylon Lowe, Quinton Jackson vs. Keith Jardine, Manny Gamburyan vs. Tyson Griffin, Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt… OK, maybe I have too much time to think about things like this.

I don’t know what happened to Josh Grispi. My baseless speculation is that there’s some performance anxiety related to competing in the UFC. It’s not that he lost to Dustin Poirier and George Roop, it’s that he got completely battered in the process. Under normal circumstances, I would take Grispi to win this fight, but given his recent performances… I just can’t do it. This is coming from somebody who generally puts very little stock in just a fighter’s recent performances.

UFC Fight Night 24 Preview: Preliminary Fights

These fights are not guaranteed to be broadcast on Saturday, March 26th. UFC Fight Night 24 is scheduled to air at 7:00 PT/10:00 ET, preceded by a Facebook broadcast beginning at 4:30 PT/7:30 ET.

 

1. 155 lbs: Nik Lentz (20-3-2, 4-0-1 UFC) vs. Waylon Lowe (10-3, 2-1 UFC)

SILVA prediction: Lentz (34.11) over Lowe (27.45)

If you’re wondering why a fighter who has a 4-0-1 record in the UFC, such as Nik Lentz, is buried as the opening fight of the prelims of a Spike TV show, it’s because Lentz has established a reputation for being a terribly boring fighter whose strategies consist largely of pushing his opponent against the fence and doing just enough to win a decision. Waylon Lowe is also a fighter who employs a relatively boring ground and pound style, and that has led to speculation that the loser of this fight will be cut by the UFC, even if it’s Lentz. I happen to think Lentz will win, as Lowe will have the power advantage but Lentz will have the cardio advantage.

 

2. 185: Mario Miranda (10-2, 1-2 UFC) vs. Aaron Simpson (7-2, 3-2 UFC)

SILVA prediction: Miranda (38.32) over Simpson (32.89)

As much as the UFC has expanded, it still doesn’t have enough room for all of the quality fighters in MMA. That is evidenced by this match between Mario Miranda and Aaron Simpson. The loser is in danger of being cut, but both fighters are very talented. Miranda is a grappling-based fighter who found himself in the worst possible style matchup for him at UFC 118 when he fought world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter Demian Maia. Miranda lost, but put up a very spirited effort in losing, and managed to make it to a decision despite much of the fight being contested on the ground. He’ll face a solid wrestler in Aaron Simpson. Simpson fought a war against Mark Munoz at UFC 123, but ended up suffering his second UFC loss. Given that Simpson’s striking isn’t special, and his cardio is also suspect, I think he has too many holes to avoid being caught by Miranda at some point in the fight.

 

3. 170: Johny Hendricks (9-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. T.J. Waldburger (13-5, 1-0 UFC)

SILVA prediction: Hendricks (50.79) over Waldburger (26.67)

Johny Hendricks lost a battle of prospects at the TUF 12 Finale against Rick Story. Hendricks was more highly rated by SILVA, mostly by being undefeated, where Story had three losses on his record. The fight ended up being a war of attrition; where many fights between two wrestlers become striking wars, Story-Hendricks was contested largely in the clinch, as neither fighter wanted to end up on bottom position on the ground. Story ended up winning by being a little more aggressive and a little more effective. The point is that the loss doesn’t mean Hendricks isn’t still a great prospect, and at UFN 24 he’ll face T.J. Waldburger. Waldburger presents a bit of a problem with his grappling, as he has 10 wins by submission, but Hendricks can easily keep the fight standing with counter-wrestling. Waldburger’s fight history is very underwhelming, and quite frankly, there’s not much that suggests that Hendricks won’t end up with his hand raised after this fight.

 

FIGHTS BROADCAST ON FACEBOOK – 4:30 PT/7:30 ET

4. 265: Sean McCorkle (10-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Christian Morecraft (6-1, 0-1 UFC)

SILVA prediction: Morecraft (42.39) over McCorkle (35.56)

I’ll be honest… the UFC has promoted more skilled fights than this one. The appeal here is that both fighters stand about 6’8″ and probably both need to cut a significant amount of weight to make the 265 pound limit. It’s a battle of massive human beings, which could end up being really exciting… or really awful. Christian Morecraft makes me think of that one huge kid on the playground who beats up smaller kids for their lunch money. He was doing something very similar to that to Stefan Struve, bludgeoning the Dutchman in the first round of their fight at UFC 117 and likely winning a 10-8 round. Suddenly, at the beginning of round two, Struve crushed Morecraft with a punch that knocked him out. Sean McCorkle’s UFC loss also came against Stefan Struve, but it was much less exciting, as McCorkle took Struve down, got swept, and got stopped with punches from the mount. Given that I don’t know much about these guys, but Morecraft has a higher SILVA and had much more success against Struve, I have to give Morecraft the nod here.

 

5. 135: Michael McDonald (11-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Edwin Figueroa (7-0, 0-0 UFC)

SILVA prediction: McDonald (39.49) over Figueroa (39.32)

I’ve written at length about SILVA’s flaws, and I will be working to improve it, but until I do, I have to live with predictions like this. Sure, SILVA is favoring Michael McDonald, but only by the slimmest of margins. Figueroa doesn’t have a single quality victory, and is taking this fight on about a week’s notice, replacing Nick Pace. As McDonald has actually faced tough competition, and has put in a real training camp, I have to strongly favor him to win this match.

 

6. 170: John Hathaway (14-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. Kris McCray (5-2, 0-2 UFC)

SILVA prediction: Hathaway (42.46) over McCray (24.69)

Once upon a time, John Hathaway was 14-0 and considered one of the top prospects in the UFC welterweight division. It’s easy to see why: 14-0 fighters don’t grow on trees, especially not 14-0 fighters with wins over Rick Story and Diego Sanchez. Then Hathaway ran into Mike Pyle, who shut him down and frustrated him with wrestling and grappling to win a lopsided decision at UFC 120. Kris McCray will likely seek to employ a similar gameplan, as he also has a wrestling background, but there are a couple of problems. One is that McCray doesn’t have nearly the grappling acumen of Pyle: not because he was submitted by Carlos Rocha, who is a grappling whiz, but because from what I’ve seen, his ground game consists of a lot of punches and not much else. That’s fine, but it means that McCray isn’t nearly as polished or well-rounded as Mike Pyle, and it means that I anticipate John Hathaway will be able to stifle McCray’s attack and outstrike him on his way to a decision or TKO victory.

 

7. 265: Jon Madsen (7-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. Mike Russow (13-1, 2-0 UFC)

SILVA prediction: Madsen (53.88) over Russow (44.67)

This is an absolutely horrible matchup for Mike Russow. Russow is largely a wrestler who looks to aggressively dominate position on the ground and seek out submissions. He didn’t do that at all against the very strong Todd Duffee, and instead was pummeled for the vast majority of three rounds before suddenly knocking Duffee out in the third round. Winning that way is generally a bad sign: one thing that is universal throughout sports is that dominating victories are a much better indicator of future success than just skating by. Russow’s opponent, Jon Madsen, cannot be accused of skating, at least not in his last fight, in which he took down Gilbert Yvel and pummeled him. Yvel isn’t a competitive wrestler or grappler at any level, but he’s shown very good survival abilities at least, so watching Madsen pound him was a bit surprising. Take the way these two won their last fights (admittedly, Yvel is not as good as Duffee), add SILVA’s favoring of Madsen, and it looks like Madsen is a solid pick to win. Consider that Russow’s a wrestler, but Madsen is also a wrestler and much better at it, and it looks like it could be a blowout.

 

8. 145: Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres (4-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Mackens Semerzier (5-3, 0-0 UFC)

SILVA prediction: Semerzier (19.94) over Caceres (17.96)

Normally, fighters who lose at some point on TUF have to at least win on the finale of the show to stick around in the UFC. That wasn’t the case for Alex Caceres, who earned Dana White’s favor with his showmanship and flashy style. Caceres put up something of a fight against Michael Johnson, but Johnson was simply able to physically dominate. Prior to that loss, Caceres defeated Jeff Lentz, who most viewers likely remember for his smoking cigarettes but was actually liked by SILVA. Lentz was well on his way to winning a decision in that fight, as he landed a couple of big punches and controlled much of the fight in the clinch, but made a bad mistake in the second round and got submitted by a triangle choke. Caceres brings flash, and brings a smile, but when it comes to actual fighting ability – winning by knockout or submission – it’s hard to see what Caceres brings to the table. The only thing Caceres has shown, really, is something of a submission threat, but Mackens Semerzier already has four submission wins, so it’s hard for me to see Bruce Leroy winning.

Five UFC Fights to Broadcast on Facebook on Saturday

I’ll be honest… I wouldn’t even be active on Facebook at all if it wasn’t for the UFC broadcasting fights. Recently, the UFC has been airing two or three fights on a one-hour time block, preceding the Spike TV prelims, and then the pay-per-view. On Saturday, UFC Fight Night 24 is airing on Spike TV, and since the UFC can’t really have a Spike TV prelim special for a Spike TV show, it’s decided to put almost all of the preliminary fights on Facebook.

Here are the fights scheduled to air beginning at 4:30 PT/7:30 ET:

• Sean McCorkle vs. Christian Morecraft
• Michael McDonald vs. Edwin Figueroa
• John Hathaway vs. Kris McCray
• Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres vs. Mackens Semerzier
• Jon Madsen vs. Mike Russow

In case you haven’t watched UFC fights on Facebook before, all you need to do is log into your Facebook account, go to http://www.facebook.com/UFC and “Like” the UFC’s page. Then, on Saturday, visit that same page, click on “Live Video,” and you should be golden.