UFC 174 Predictions Summary

My picks for this event are:

• Demetrious Johnson over Ali Bagautinov
• Rory MacDonald over Tyron Woodley
• Ryan Bader over Rafael Cavalcante
• Andrei Arlovski over Brendan Schaub
• Ovince St-Preux over Ryan Jimmo
• Daniel Sarafian over Kiichi Kunimoto
• Valerie Letourneau over Elizabeth Phillips
• Mike Easton over Yves Jabouin
• Kajan Johnson over Tae Hyun Bang
• Michinori Tanaka over Roland Delorme
• Jason Saggo over Josh Shockley

YEAR TO DATE

Last Event: 9-2 (81.8%)

Year to Date: 137-72 (65.6%)

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: No wagers made

Current Bankroll: $83.91

Total Investment: $167.07

Total Return: $33.91

Return on Investment: 20.3%

I totally passed on last week’s UFC event, which turned out to be an unfortunate decision as my “leans” would have been profitable. Of course, that’s only true because Diego Sanchez was gifted an awful decision victory over the more deserving Ross Pearson.

For this event I have…

Ali Bagautinov +500: $3.00 to win $15.00 – I think Bagautinov probably will lose this title fight to Demetrious Johnson, but I also think he’s enough of a threat with knockout power and takedowns that there’s some value here at +500.

Rory MacDonald -110: $3.30 to win $3.00 – I wish I had pulled the trigger on this bet when MacDonald was offered at +120. As it stands, I think there’s still some value here with MacDonald at -110. If MacDonald is at his best, I think his combination of volume striking and takedown defense will be tough for Tyron Woodley to deal with.

Andrei Arlovski +145: $3.00 to win $4.35 – Arlovski started at -140 and is now +145. Apparently nobody believes in “The Pitbull”! I think it’s a coin flip fight and that makes a +145 price a pretty decent bargain.

Valerie Letourneau -110: $3.30 to win $3.00 – This is a bet made purely on market fluctuations, not on any knowledge I happen to possess. I don’t know nearly enough about Letourneau or Elizabeth Phillips, but what I do know is that Letourneau started at -190 and now is all the way down to -110. I can’t imagine the sportsbooks were that far off with their initial assessment.

I’ve also made a wager on Brazil to win the World Cup +300, risking $1.00 to win $3.00. This is a truly degenerate gamble as I am not a soccer expert in the slightest. However, a look at some online resources tells me that Brazil is the strongest team in the tournament on top of having the home advantage. That’s enough for me to think Brazil has an excellent chance of winning it all, but I’m not going to risk too much to find out if I’m right.

EDIT: I have added Rafael Cavalcante +170, $3.00 to win $5.10 and Ryan Jimmo +155, $3.00 to win $4.65 as those lines have moved enough for me to put some bets down.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

UFC Fight Night 33 Predictions Summary

 

As you can see none of the fighters set to compete have a projected winning percentage of 80% or better, even though Ryan Bader and Alex Garcia are both very heavy favorites to win their respective fights. That’s due to the changes I’ve made to FPR and how it assesses each fight.

Underdog picks here include: Mauricio Rua and Clint Hester. Hester-Andrews is a close enough fight that “home cage advantage” might make Andrews the deserving favorite.

Speaking of “home cage advantage,” I can’t help but notice that FPR thinks every fighter from Australia/New Zealand is an underdog in this event. Somehow I doubt they’re going 0-7 tomorrow.

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

If you’ve checked out my stuff at JasonSomerville.com you’ve probably also seen plenty of videos of Jason’s “Run it UP!” series, where he has been attempting to take a $50 bankroll and turn it into $10,000 by playing on the Ultimate Poker website.

In the spirit of the “Run it UP!” series I’ve decided to open a $50 betting account. I know, I know, I’m a HIGH roller. Mostly I want to see just how good FPR can be at picking fights. I did a “beta test” with the previous version of FPR and that was pretty darn good at making money with a fake bankroll. Now I want to put it to the test.

With that said there’s a reason I’m calling this the “degenerate gambler’s corner”… because there’s a real chance that instead of running it up, I’ll run it up, then run it down, then hopefully run it to where I started. I make ZERO guarantees about the potential profitability of these picks and I cannot recommend following them in any serious way.

With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s what I have for tomorrow’s fights:

Antonio Silva -130: $3.84 to win $2.95

Mauricio Rua +105: $5.51 to win $5.79

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

UFC Fight Night 33 Predictions

I have to go into turbo-mode to finish my write-ups for this Saturday’s fights. Later today breakdowns for the main event between Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Mark Hunt and the co-main event between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and James Te Huna will be posted at JasonSomerville.com. For now here are my thoughts on the other fights scheduled to take place at UFC Fight Night 33:

205 pounds: Ryan Bader vs. Anthony Perosh

 

This one almost seems too easy. Ryan Bader is an excellent wrestler and athlete with very good punching power. Anthony Perosh is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist who is 41 years old. It seems like almost a lock that Bader will stuff any takedowns tried by Perosh and knock him out standing.

The risk where Bader is concerned is that his chin isn’t exactly made of granite either. Perosh showed he’s capable of knocking people out himself with a victory over Vinny Magalhaes in August. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Perosh could add another knockout victory here.

Still, Bader is a 5-1 favorite to win this match for a reason. He’s the far better striker and wrestler than Perosh is. And let’s be honest, what are the chances of Perosh winning by one-punch KO, really?

Pick: Ryan Bader by KO

265 pounds: Pat Barry vs. Soa Palelei

 

Pat Barry is an example that all MMA fighters should look at very closely. I’ve been predicting Barry’s UFC release for quite a few fights now and it hasn’t happened. He’s still here. The reason is simple: Barry might not be very good but he’s fun to watch, and that gives him value that most fighters at his skill level simply cannot provide.

With that said, brace yourself for the possibility that he might actually lose to Soa Palelei. Out of 28 UFC heavyweights, Palelei is rated #28 according to FPR, mostly thanks to a very low quality of competition (Nikita Krylov, Eddie Sanchez, and the immortal Mu Bae Choi in PRIDE). However, Palelei has landed takedowns at a fairly high rate, and that’s threatening for Barry, whose ground game is mostly non-existant.

At the same time, Palelei is very slow on his feet and should be the kind of opponent Barry will punish with powerful strikes. Barry’s best asset is his knockout power and he’s likely to showcase it on Saturday night.

Pick: Pat Barry by KO

185 pounds: Dylan Andrews vs. Clint Hester

 

It’s going to be hard for me to shake the bias I have against Dylan Andrews. I’ll never forget watching him fight Uriah Hall on The Ultimate Fighter. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fighter as nervous and timid as Andrews was in that fight. His body language throughout just screamed “please don’t knock me out.” It wasn’t pretty.

It’s amazing to think about that because it seems increasingly clear that Andrews is actually a better fighter than Hall. At least he’s started his UFC career on the right foot with two victories by KO/TKO.

With that said Clint Hester is a punishing striker and I feel the way to beat him is via submission, not TKO. Unfortunately Andrews doesn’t really do submissions. Andrews is the more technical striker, and that might carry him to victory here, but I think Hester’s pressure has a good chance of overwhelming Andrews here.

Pick: Clint Hester by TKO

Women’s 135 pounds: Bethe Correia vs. Julie Kedzie

 

The first thing I noted about Bethe Correia while watching her on tape was that I couldn’t help but notice how tentative and unwilling to engage she was. That may not be her normal style but she’ll want to make sure she doesn’t fight that way during her UFC debut against Julie Kedzie.

Kedzie is a very aggressive and powerful striker for the women’s bantamweight division. Of all the women in the UFC I have data for there have been a combined five knockdowns, three of which were by Kedzie. I have to think Kedzie will have a striking advantage in this fight.

At the same time Kedzie’s record of 16-12 indicates that she’s a very flawed fighter. Her flaw is the submission game; she’s lost seven times by that method. For her part Correia has shown a willingness to land takedowns but her striking and submissions just aren’t very refined at all. I have to think Kedzie out-points her in this match.

Pick: Julie Kedzie by decision

135 pounds: Takeya Mizugaki vs. Nam Phan

 

Anybody who’s followed this blog for a while knows that I haven’t had a lot of positive things to say about Nam Phan. I’ve tried a number of statistical approaches to rating MMA fighters and where they stand in relation to one another, and all of them have agreed that Phan is one of the worst fighters at the lighter weights in the UFC.

Trust me when I say I hate to be so negative. I’d love nothing more than for the UFC to be full of awesome and amazing fighters I only say good things about. The only good things I can say about Phan are that he has very good conditioning and is genuinely good at not being finished inside the cage.

There are bantamweights Phan can beat but Takeya Mizugaki is probably not one of them. Phan actually should be able to keep up with Mizugaki on the feet but at some point Mizugaki is going to take him down and begin a ground and pound assault. Phan has never shown much ability to deal with that kind of fight and I don’t expect him to suddenly develop a counter in this one.

Pick: Takeya Mizugaki by decision

185 pounds: Caio Magalhaes vs. Nick Ring

 

One thing that’s become clear in the brief career of Caio Magalhaes is that he’s not a very good striker. Already Magalhaes has been out-struck by a 65-43 margin in two UFC fights, including a 35-22 margin against Buddy Roberts and a 30-21 margin against Karlos Vemola. Nick Ring is no master striker, especially defensively, but he should enjoy a comfortable advantage as long as this fight stays standing.

Magalhaes clearly needs to clinch up with Ring and force a ground battle if he wants to win this fight. Ring has been susceptible to takedowns as he’s been taken down ten times in 70 minutes in the UFC. However Magalhaes has struggled mightily to take his opponents down as well, landing just three out of 17 takedown attempts.

If Magalhaes can break through Ring’s takedown defense then he has a very good chance of winning this fight by submission or even decision. Unfortunately for Magalhaes I think the most likely outcome is that Ring will stuff his takedown attempts and easily get the better of the ensuing striking contest.

Pick: Nick Ring by decision

 

125 pounds: Justin Scoggins vs. Richie Vaculik

The first thing you’ll notice about Justin Scoggins on tape is that he fights with a similar striking style as fighters like Stephen Thompson: hands down, wide stance, with a very diverse and kick-heavy offense. For Scoggins this has resulted in five wins by KO/TKO in just seven professional MMA fights. Scoggins is undefeated in those fights although his level of competition has been less than stellar. Because of that it’s tricky to project how well his game will translate to UFC competition.

His opponent, Richie Vaculik, was a participant on The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes, which probably seems strange if you remember that The Smashes featured lightweight and welterweight fighters. Indeed, Vaculik competed as a badly undersized lightweight and was subsequently mauled by Norman Parke. It’s unfair to use that fight as a reference point for how well Vaculik can actually fight.

Vaculik is primarily a submission fighter as six of his wins have come by that method but it will be difficult for him to impose that game on Scoggins. I think Scoggins can probably use his kicks to keep Vaculik at distance and eventually win by TKO.

Pick: Justin Scoggins by TKO

FPR Update – 10/29

Fighter Performance Ratings on this blog have been updated for all UFC fighters. They can be accessed via the links on the sidebar.

Here are some quick notes from the update:

–Cain Velasquez goes down to +17.35 because he was a little less dominant than normal against Junior Dos Santos. Velasquez still has easily the highest FPR in the UFC. Between that performance by Velasquez and Jon Jones‘ struggles against Alexander Gustafsson, there aren’t too many people calling for Jones to challenge for the heavyweight title these days. That is as it should be.

–Lyoto Machida checks in at middleweight as the second-best fighter in the division according to FPR. Machida trails only Chris Weidman and is well ahead of Anderson Silva. The obvious match to make if Weidman beats Silva again is to have him face Machida… assuming Machida can defeat Vitor Belfort or whoever else he’s matched up against next.

-If Jimi Manuwa keeps up his current pace over 60 minutes he’ll have an FPR of +5.46, which would rank 7th at light-heavyweight ahead of Mauricio Rua and behind Ryan Bader. The reason Manuwa’s FPR isn’t that good yet (+1.07) is because I’ve designed FPR to make a fighter “prove it.” In other words, prove you’re that good on a consistent basis. I think the jury is still out on Manuwa as a potential top 10 fighter at 205 pounds.

-Here is the FPR of every fighter from TUF 15 who is still in the UFC:

• Myles Jury +2.70
• Al Iaquinta +0.27
• Daron Cruickshank +0.27
• James Vick -1.98
• Jon Tuck -2.03
• James Krause -2.09
• Jeremy Larsen -2.52
• Joe Proctor -2.93

So far it looks like Jury, Iaquinta, and Cruickshank are the mainstays from that season. James Vick could easily join them as he’s only fought in the UFC for one minute so far. I still think Jury has the highest upside of the group.

Glover Teixeira: Not The Man to Beat Jon Jones

It’s amazing what kind of negativity can surround a fighter who is simply “very good” as opposed to being the best fighter in his division. At some point, a fighter’s performances are scrutinized in the context of how well he would have done against the division’s champion. Ask Daniel Cormier, whose performances against Dion Staring and Frank Mir were panned despite Cormier winning easily in both fights. At a point, the performance becomes less about the fighter and more about the prospect of that fighter taking on the best in the world.

Under normal circumstances, a first-round knockout win over Ryan Bader would be something to celebrate. For Glover Teixeira, it was cause for some fans to dismiss him as a credible threat to Jon Jones. Teixeira’s crime in that fight was only out-striking Bader by a 14-11 margin and having his back put against the fence while Bader landed a few clean punches. Bader is not a fighter easy to thoroughly dominate, but that’s the kind of performance Teixeira would have needed if he wanted people to believe he is the man who will beat Jon Jones.

As I have watched Teixeira fight in the UFC, two things have become clear. One is that Teixeira is an elite light-heavyweight, one of the very best fighters in the division. The other is that Teixeira, like every other light-heavyweight in the UFC, doesn’t stand much of a chance of defeating Jones.

I’ve become a broken record on this, but the thing UFC champions have in common is effective defense, particularly effective striking defense. Every UFC champion absorbs fewer than two significant strikes per minute, including women’s champion Ronda Rousey. Anthony Pettis, the newest UFC champion, has absorbed just 1.45 significant strikes per minute. As dangerous as Teixeira is, the one statistical category he falls short in is striking defense. In 34 minutes and 15 seconds of fight time in the UFC, Teixeira has been hit by 96 significant strikes, or 2.82 per minute.

That is a much higher rate of strikes absorbed than any current UFC champion has. It’s also worth noting that much of Teixeira’s UFC fight time has taken place against opponents who clearly didn’t belong in the cage with him. Against the tougher Quinton Jackson, James Te Huna, and Bader, Teixeira has been hit by 72 significant strikes in 20:33, or 3.50 per minute.

That’s not going to fly against an opponent like Jones, who is excellent at landing strikes without being hit himself. In that respect, Teixeira’s challenge is the same as it is for any fighter who faces Jones – he needs to somehow get inside of Jones’s reach to land strikes without being hit back himself. It’s conceivable to see somebody like Anderson Silva or Lyoto Machida doing it – but not Teixeira, whose striking defense and head movement pales in comparison to those fighters.

A big part of Teixeira’s offense in the UFC has been his takedowns and grappling. Teixeira has landed ten takedowns in his 34 UFC minutes, which means he lands takedowns more frequently than even Rashad Evans or Chael Sonnen. However, just as Sonnen’s wrestling was stifled by Jones, it’s very difficult to see Teixeira breaking through and putting Jones on his back. Despite facing a series of top contenders as the UFC champion, Jones still has never been taken down in an MMA fight.

For Teixeira, all that’s left is the prospect of finishing Jones by knockout. In other words, Teixeira has a “puncher’s chance.” I like Teixeira’s “puncher’s chance” better than most fighters, but it’s clear that if his next challenge is a battle with Jones for the light-heavyweight championship, Jones should be a prohibitive favorite as he always is.

UFC Fight Night 28 Predictions

As the third UFC event in a week, I once again won’t be able to write individual fight previews for UFC Fight Night 28. It’s a good thing because there are a lot of fighters making their debut on this card and I simply wouldn’t be able to give great analysis for a lot of the fights. For this event I’m simply going to produce my FPR-based predictions and give some brief commentary on the fights.

 

–Ryan Bader actually has a slightly higher “official” FPR than his opponent, Glover Teixeira. However, when I supplement Teixeira’s FPR with some tape study he becomes a heavy favorite to win. Teixeira is a true mixed martial artist – he’s very good at every aspect of MMA: striking, takedowns, and submissions. He also has excellent knockout power. If Teixeira has a weakness, it’s striking defense, as his head movement and evasion are not terrific. Despite that he’s clearly an outstanding fighter and might just be the second-best light-heavyweight in MMA behind Jon Jones.

-Against Bader I expect Teixeira to be the more aggressive striker and have a fairly high chance of winning by knockout. Teixeira might also prove to be the better wrestler even though Bader has more clearly defined amateur wrestling credentials. Bader is a good, underrated light-heavyweight, but he’s run into a buzzsaw in Teixeira.

–Yushin Okami hasn’t had a very impressive performance in quite a while… but he keeps coming out on top. I thought Hector Lombard would be the guy to take out Okami but that proved not to be the case. Finally I think Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza will be too much for him. Souza should have the striking skills to remain competitive on the feet and the top-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to out-maneuver Okami on the ground.

-Part of the reason Brazilians have such a good record in Brazil is that they’ve been getting very favorable matchups in the UFC. That won’t be the case when Jussier Formiga takes on Joseph Benavidez. Benavidez fought a somewhat similar fighter in Darren Uyenoyama and Uyenoyama had nothing for him. Formiga is a better version of Uyenoyama – a very good grappler, but without effective striking or takedowns, it’s hard to see how he applies his grappling in this match.

-The one debuting fighter I was able to watch on tape a bit was Piotr Hallmann. In the first fight I watched, Hallmann was knocked down, taken down, and had a submission attempted against him all in one round. Hallmann was still the better fighter because he landed a lot more strikes, but it wasn’t the kind of dominating performance I like to see from an aspiring contender in the UFC. I certainly didn’t get the impression that Hallmann is prepared to defeat the talented Francisco Trinaldo.

-Even though FPR doesn’t have much confidence in its picks for this event, I am going to agree with all the picks listed above. FPR is picking three underdogs to win, and they’re all very narrow underdogs: Junior Hernandez is +125, Joao Zeferino is +100, and Yuri Villefort is +100.

Enjoy the fights!

UFC on Fox 6 Post-Fight Analysis

This was a better night for my picks, going 7-4 after last week’s debacle. Here are my thoughts on the fights:

-Unsurprisingly, Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson came out and fought at a high pace. The difference was that Johnson was prepared to fight like that for five rounds, while Dodson could only fight three before fading. This fight showed a little bit of everything we knew about both fighters. It showed Dodson’s power, as he knocked Johnson down multiple times. It showed Johnson’s wrestling, as he was able to take Dodson down in almost every round. And it showed that, overall, Johnson is just a little bit better than Dodson is in every area except power. Dodson did threaten to end the fight in the second round, and he showed he has big-time talent in the flyweight division. As thin as that division is, we’ll probably see Dodson get another chance at the title in the future.

-It’s fair to say that Glover Teixeira is a top ten fighter in the light-heavyweight division. It’s also fair to say that a fellow top ten fighter would expose him. To a large extent, Quinton Jackson did some exposing, as even a badly fatigued Jackson was able to land some big punches to the head of Teixeira. Teixeira is talented in all areas of the sport, with power punches, takedowns, and submissions, but the man just gets hit too much. I’ve said it before – the single most important attribute a fighter can have is the ability to avoid being hit. That’s how fighters with marginal talent like Brian Ebersole are able to have UFC success. If Teixeira’s next fight is against somebody like Lyoto Machida or Alexander Gustafsson, I can’t see myself siding with Teixeira.

-We’ve probably seen Jackson fight in the UFC for the last time, and I think it’s the right time. Jackson has been on a slow decline for a number of years now, and no longer has the ability to defend takedowns or fight for three rounds without getting exhausted. All Jackson has left is power punching, and while his power is considerable, it’s not enough to win fights at a high level. It’s been a great MMA career for “Rampage,” but it’s the right time to call it quits.

-I went into the fight between Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone thinking it was a very close fight, but I gave the slight edge to Pettis. I’ve come out of it thinking Pettis is way better. It’s usually not a good idea to make broad assumptions based on one short fight, but Cerrone is just too easy to hit. Nate Diaz was able to put on a boxing clinic against him, and Pettis wouldn’t let Cerrone throw anything without eating a counter. Pettis might still be one fight away from a title shot since Gilbert Melendez is in the way; if that’s the case, I want to see him face a wrestler who will test his takedown defense.

–Erik Koch was doing well against Ricardo Lamas before making a huge mistake, trying to jump on an off-balance Lamas, and being put on his back. While there, Lamas just crushed Koch with punches and elbows. I don’t know what Koch was doing – perhaps trying to sweep – but he wasn’t moving his head or controlling the posture of Lamas at all. Lamas has now had to come back to win three times in a row, against Cub Swanson, Hatsu Hioki, and now Koch. It’s not a good omen if his next opponent is Jose Aldo, who would likely stuff Lamas’s takedowns and knock him out.

-I have to hand it to T.J. Grant. He’s looked fantastic at 155 pounds, and I’ll now acknowledge that I did him a disservice by being concerned about his takedown defense so much. I should have recognized that while Grant has lost UFC fights because of takedowns, they were all in the welterweight division, against larger opponents. Meanwhile, Matt Wiman looked awful. He looked “soft” and out of shape, didn’t attack with as much aggression as usual, and reacted horribly to being hit. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we find out he was fighting injured, and for his sake, I hope that’s the case, because otherwise, it really wasn’t a good performance for him.

-It’s official: if you’re an MMA fighter, it is impossible to win a round off your back. If it was possible, surely Hatsu Hioki would have been given a decision over Clay Guida. Hioki was the better boxer, and after being taken down, was looking for submissions and keeping Guida on the defensive. Guida had very little meaningful offense in the fight. Naturally, Guida won the split decision, including one 30-27 score for him.

-Takedowns are badly overvalued in the way fights are judged. Unless it’s a slam, a takedown serves as the means to an end. Scoring points for a takedown implies that it gives the fighter who lands it an advantage for the remainder of the round. But what if it doesn’t? What if, by landing a takedown, a fighter puts himself in more danger than his opponent? Usually, this isn’t the case, but if the opponent in question is a guy like Fabricio Werdum, Paul Sass, or Hatsu Hioki, it’s usually not a good idea to take that fighter down. If a fighter wants to win a round with a takedown, I want to see him do something with it. Even if it’s just landing some decent strikes, show me that the takedown is getting you somewhere. Otherwise, I don’t want rounds to be scored for a fighter just because of a takedown and top control.

–Pascal Krauss now has UFC victories against Mike Stumpf and Mark Scanlon, and a UFC loss to John Hathaway, in a fight Krauss took after a very long layoff. It’s hard to tell how good he really is based on those fights, since there’s a wide skill gap between Stumpf/Scanlon and Hathaway. To Krauss’s credit, he reduced Stumpf to little more than a punching bag, although he also absorbed more strikes than I would have liked to see. Hopefully we see Krauss take on a mid-level UFC veteran next time, so we can get a good handle on just how good he is.

–Vladimir Matyushenko has been fighting for what seems like forever, and when he faces a lower-level light-heavyweight in the UFC, he comes out on top. But what can I really say when, every time he faces a tougher opponent, he gets obliterated? Ryan Bader’s lightning-quick win really doesn’t tell us anything about either guy; it was just the expected result.

–Joe Rogan had it right: Mike Russow got excited, and gassed himself out by fighting too aggressively against Shawn Jordan. Russow had some great success early, tagging Jordan with a number of punches, but by the end of the first round, he was already fading. Jordan is a good athlete, but as a mixed martial artist… he’s a good athlete. Jordan came out on top against a fighter who was previously 15-2, so I don’t want to dump on him too much, but it’s not good to have to “weather the storm” against the hands of Mike Russow. Sadly, with the heavyweight division in the state it’s in, Russow and Jordan might both be top 25 fighters.

-I liked Sean Spencer’s movement and the way his punches looked. What I didn’t like was that he couldn’t get in the right punching range. Spencer’s strikes kept coming up just short. In the later rounds, it’s usually Rafael Natal who is desperate for oxygen, but instead, Spencer’s status as a short-notice replacement really showed, as it was Natal who was able to submit an exhausted Spencer. Hopefully, if Spencer goes back to 170 pounds and has a full training camp, he’ll be able to show a better performance next time.

-I thought that if David Mitchell stood with Simeon Thoresen, Thoresen would prove to be the better striker. Cue the game show buzzer sound for giving a wrong answer. Both fighters looked pretty bad at striking range; neither showed much ability to avoid eating punches, and neither was able to throw crisp strikes. But Mitchell was more aggressive than Thoresen, and was at least a little more mobile than Thoresen was. Mitchell and Thoresen are now both 1-2 in the UFC, and look for them to both be 1-3 in the UFC after their respective next fights.

UFC on Fox 6 Preview and Predictions

Let’s get right to it.

UFC Flyweight Championship Match: John Dodson (14-5, 3-0 UFC) vs. Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1, 4-1-1 UFC)

The main event features the little guys, as flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson will be defending his title against TUF 14 bantamweight winner John Dodson. I’ll come right out and say that I like Johnson to successfully defend his belt, but I do think it will be a very competitive fight. Both fighters here have a tremendous amount of speed – it may turn out to be the speediest fight in UFC history (by which I mean the speed of the fighters, not the duration of the bout). But when I break this fight down, I think Johnson is just a little bit better than Dodson in every area.

First is the striking. Both fighters are good at it, and Dodson’s UFC success has been achieved almost exclusively with striking so far. Dodson does have two wins by knockout in three UFC fights, which is remarkable for a 125 pound fighter. But I think he’ll have a hard time knocking out Demetrious Johnson in this fight. While both fighters are fast, I think Johnson is even faster than Dodson – I’ve never seen a fighter jump into the pocket, unleash a flurry, and get out of the pocket before his opponent can even counter as well as Johnson. Against Dodson, that figures to be one of his main advantages. It’s hard to land a KO punch when it’s hard to hit a fighter cleanly in the first place.

And if Dodson has a weakness, it’s probably his defense at striking range. It didn’t prove to be a weakness against either T.J. Dillashaw or Jussier da Silva, but Dodson had a difficult time with Tim Elliott at UFC on Fox 3, a fight in which Dodson was a 5-1 favorite. That’s not to say that Johnson hasn’t had his difficulties as well, but if Fight Metric is any indication, Johnson has out-struck his opponent in all of his WEC and UFC fights, and that includes opponents like Dominick Cruz.

What I feel will really set Johnson apart from Dodson is the takedown. Dodson typically chooses to stand and strike with his opponents. He’ll mix in a takedown occasionally, but only to keep his opponent honest more than anything. Johnson, on the other hand, is fairly busy with takedown attempts, and he’s pretty good at landing them. In a fight that otherwise figures to be competitive, Johnson can win rounds by landing well-timed takedowns.

Ultimately, Dodson has more than a reasonable chance of winning here. He does have the potential to win by KO, and the striking game is competitive enough that Dodson may be able to sneak by with a decision. But I have to favor Johnson to win, as I feel he matches up particularly well with Dodson. Johnson by decision.

205 pounds: Quinton Jackson (32-10, 7-4 UFC) vs. Glover Teixeira (19-2, 2-0 UFC)

In what may be Quinton “Rampage” Jackson’s last fight in mixed martial arts, he’ll be getting his wish. Instead of fighting a wrestler who figures to shut him down, he’ll be taking on perhaps the most aggressive fighter in the division in Glover Teixeira. All I can say is – be careful what you wish for.

It’s fair to call Teixeira a SILVA favorite, as my old rating system indicated that Teixeira was a top ten light-heavyweight before he made his UFC debut against Kyle Kingsbury at UFC 146. And he’s lived up to that billing, demolishing Kingsbury and inflicting a tremendous amount of punishment on Fabio Maldonado at UFC 153. Teixeira isn’t just good in all areas of the MMA game, he’s dangerous in all areas. He hits very hard, has good takedowns, and has a very good submission game as well. To make matters worse for his opponents, Teixeira attacks relentlessly from the opening bell. Teixeira’s skill set and aggression have served to make him one of the most hyped fighters in the light-heavyweight division.

And to a great extent, Teixeira deserves that hype. He genuinely is a very good, possibly elite light-heavyweight. But I can’t help but feel that Quinton Jackson isn’t quite getting the respect he deserves. Now, there are no shortage of reasons to not trust Jackson. He’s been very public about his desire to leave the UFC, he’s looked increasingly worse in recent fights, and in his last fight against Ryan Bader, he was overweight and put on an awful performance. Jackson is on the decline, and has been for a few years now.

The thing about Jackson is – you never know when he’s going to show up, and when he does, he can be very difficult to beat. Simply having tough takedown defense and KO power is a dangerous combination against a lot of fighters. When Jackson is motivated and in shape, he’s competitive against the best in the world. And for Glover Teixeira, it’s important to remember that, although he smashed Kingsbury and Maldonado, those guys are a far cry from Quinton Jackson as far as their fighting level is concerned.

Now, with all of that said, I do have to favor Teixeira to win here. Even if Jackson is at his best, Teixeira might be just a little bit better. But if Jackson is motivated, he has more than a decent chance to catch Teixeira and win by KO, or even win on points if Teixeira gasses out (and that’s a likelihood, given Teixeira’s frenetic pace). I’ll take Teixeira by submission, but if Jackson is in shape and motivated, I think it will be a lot more competitive than most fans are giving it credit for.

155 pounds: Donald Cerrone (19-4, 6-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Pettis (15-2, 2-1 UFC)

This is one of a number of very close fights on this card, and I’ve gone back and forth on who to pick. Both fighters are very good strikers with a kick-heavy offense, both have a slick submission game, and both have had a lot of success at a high level. The biggest difference between Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis is that, while Cerrone tends to be aggressive and fights at a high pace, Pettis typically fights at a somewhat slower pace and measures up his opponent more.

What bothers me about Cerrone is how often he gets hit. It’s not just the Nate Diaz fight either; even when he wins, Cerrone has the tendency to get hit by his opponent a lot. That’s trouble against Anthony Pettis, who has the kicking game to match Cerrone, but also has fairly good counter punches and decent defense. I anticipate this fight to become a striking match, and I think that both fighters will land more than their fair share of strikes, but I see Pettis landing with a little more consistency than Cerrone. Pettis by decision.

145 pounds: Erik Koch (13-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Ricardo Lamas (12-2, 3-0 UFC)

This figures to be a top contender match in the featherweight division, and it’s a good one. Both Erik Koch and Ricardo Lamas have been on my radar for a while now, and I consider them to be the third and fourth best featherweights in the UFC today (after Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes). A while ago, SILVA identified three featherweights it considered “elite”: Aldo, Mendes, and Koch. Lamas was not far behind. But in this particular fight, I find myself strongly favoring Koch.

The reason, as usual, is the style matchup. Ricardo Lamas is a well-rounded fighter with good wrestling, good submissions, and decent hands. Unfortunately for Lamas, he’s facing an opponent in Erik Koch who has better hands, more KO power, and very good takedown defense. I see Koch being able to stuff Lamas’s takedowns and out-strike him standing. And even though Lamas has beaten two very good featherweights in Hatsu Hioki, and Cub Swanson, he had to come from behind to win both times. I don’t see that happening against Koch. Koch by KO.

155 pounds: T.J. Grant (19-5, 6-3 UFC) vs. Matt Wiman (15-6, 9-4 UFC)

This is another very close fight between lightweights with similar skill sets. T.J. Grant and Matt Wiman are both very good on the ground, both have decent wrestling, and both have good striking. Overall, I think Grant has better hands – he was able to go toe-to-toe with Evan Dunham in his last fight, and he’s had a lot of success against some very good opponents. Where I favor Matt Wiman is the wrestling game; Wiman has underrated takedowns, and where Grant has lost in the UFC, it’s been against opponents who took him to the ground. Very close fight that can go either way, but I very slightly favor Wiman to win by decision.

145 pounds: Clay Guida (29-13, 9-7 UFC) vs. Hatsu Hioki (26-5-2, 2-1 UFC)

After 16 fights in the UFC lightweight division, Clay Guida is going to 145 pounds to take on master grappler Hatsu Hioki. Guida is favored for a simple reason – he’s the better wrestler of the two, and often, the best antidote to a good submission game is a good wrestler. But I think Hioki is very competitive here. In my view, Hioki has better boxing and a better submission game. Hioki also has very good sweeps and guard passes, and figures to make Guida’s job very difficult for him. I’ll take Guida by decision here, but if Hioki wins, I’ll be kicking myself for not going the other way.

205 pounds: Ryan Bader (14-3, 7-3 UFC) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6, 7-4 UFC)

This one is pretty straightforward. Both fighters here are good wrestlers with heavy hands. Unfortunately for Vladimir Matyushenko, Ryan Bader is the better wrestler with heavier hands. Bader is also the better striker at distance. Matyushenko will likely be unable to take this fight to the ground, which leaves the striking game, and leaves a KO punch as his most likely path to victory. But I think Bader winning by KO is a lot more likely. Bader by KO.

265 pounds: Shawn Jordan (13-4, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mike Russow (15-2, 4-1 UFC)

After Shawn Jordan was inexplicably favored to beat Cheick Kongo in his last fight, he’s now an underdog against Mike Russow, and that’s probably for the best. Neither fighter lights the world on fire with his striking, but Russow is easily the better wrestler here. If Russow could take down Jon Madsen, he can take down Shawn Jordan. At the very least, Russow should be able to win the clinch battle against Jordan. I hate to say this, but prepare for this fight to be pretty tough to watch. Russow by decision.

170 pounds: Pascal Krauss (10-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mike Stumpf (11-3, 0-1 UFC)

After Pascal Krauss beat Mark Scanlon at UFC 122, I remember identifying him as one of the better prospects in the UFC. Since then, he’s only fought once, a decision loss to John Hathaway. I’m not about to give up on him though. Against Mike Stumpf, I expect Krauss to be better in all areas, and I like Krauss to win the fight by submission, and hopefully move on to fight more regularly.

185 pounds: Rafael Natal (14-4-1, 2-2-1 UFC) vs. Sean Spencer (9-1, 0-0 UFC)

I can’t say I know a lot about UFC newcomer Sean Spencer, but from what I’ve seen, he has a pretty strong record, with a number of wins against good opponents. He is also fighting up a weight class on short notice against an aggressive fighter in Rafael Natal. Natal does have the tendency to wear himself out by the end of the second round, and if Spencer can weather the early storm against him, I can see some upset potential. For now, I’ll stay safe and pick Natal to win by submission.

170 pounds: David Mitchell (11-2, 0-2 UFC) vs. Simeon Thoresen (17-3-1, 1-1 UFC)

This is a battle of submission specialists, as David Mitchell and Simeon Thoresen have a combined 24 wins by submission. I just think Thoresen is better at it – from what I see, Thoresen is a little more well-rounded than Mitchell, with better hands and better takedowns. I like Thoresen to control Mitchell and win a decision here.

SILVA Predictions For UFC 144

Preliminary Fight on Facebook

• 145 lbs: Issei Tamura (46.26) over Tie Quan Zhang (40.70)

Preliminary Fights on FX

• 135 lbs: Takeya Mizugaki (42.91) over Chris Cariaso (40.51)
• 185 lbs: Riki Fukuda (52.34) over Steve Cantwell (36.03)
• 135 lbs: Norifumi Yamamoto (44.20) over Vaughan Lee (13.77)
• 155 lbs: Eiji Mitsuoka (57.77) over Takanori Gomi (42.06)

Main Card Fights on PPV

• 155 lbs: Anthony Pettis (59.71) over Joe Lauzon (52.30)
• 145 lbs: Hatsu Hioki (73.69) over Bart Palaszewski (63.65)
• 185 lbs: Yushin Okami (64.88) over Tim Boetsch (56.73)
• 170 lbs: Jake Shields (80.90) over Yoshihiro Akiyama (45.64)
• 265 lbs: Cheick Kongo (55.77) over Mark Hunt (42.06)
• 205 lbs: Quinton Jackson (81.93) over Ryan Bader (68.62)
• UFC lightweight championship: Frankie Edgar (92.44) over Benson Henderson (84.39)

UFC 144 Preview: Ryan Bader vs. Quinton Jackson

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson has fought 41 times in professional MMA, going 32-9 thus far. He’s been the UFC light-heavyweight champion, and unified the UFC title with the PRIDE title when he defeated Dan Henderson at UFC 75. He fought for the PRIDE middleweight (93 kg) championship, losing by highlight-reel KO to Wanderlei Silva, and in his most recent fight, he lost a UFC title fight to Jon Jones by fourth-round submission. Jackson has stated publicly that he doesn’t want to fight beyond the age of 35, and has no interest in being like Randy Couture. Jackson is currently 33. A question that could be honestly asked is: what is there left to motivate Quinton Jackson to fight?

The answer: fighting in Japan. Jackson clearly is passionate about competing in the Land of the Rising Sun, going back to when he was a raw wrestler competing in PRIDE. While Jackson has competed in the UFC 11 times, he fought in PRIDE 17 times, taking on tough opponents like Silva twice, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Ricardo Arona, Murilo Bustamante, and even Chuck Liddell. Initially, it appeared Jackson wouldn’t be included on the UFC’s fight card in its return to Japan, but after insisting that he compete, he will now be taking on Ryan Bader.

While I’m sure Jackson is thrilled to get the opportunity to go back to his roots and fight in Japan again, his fighting style is quite different. As I mentioned, Jackson was originally a raw wrestler, featuring a lot of slams, but not much of a ground game or disciplined striking. Over time, Jackson has tightened up his technique, to the point that he now seldom uses his wrestling. Where a young Jackson would have taken his opponent down (and utilized more than a few knees to the head on the ground), an older Jackson has settled into being a classic “wrestleboxer.” Jackson’s wrestling ability and strength are primarily used to keep him standing so he can knock his opponent out.

Usually, that’s a good plan. Jackson has good KO power, and he’s a good enough boxer that he can out-point opponents who don’t have a striking background. However, against precise strikers, Jackson can get in trouble. Fight Metric’s statistics tell the story. In Jackson’s last seven fights, he’s been out-struck five times:

• Forrest Griffin 77, Quinton Jackson 50
• Keith Jardine 64, Quinton Jackson 56
• Rashad Evans 29, Quinton Jackson 17
• Lyoto Machida 33, Quinton Jackson 16
• Jon Jones 61, Quinton Jackson 16

There are two things to note here. The first is that Jackson landed his strikes with a good deal more power than all of the above opponents, which was enough to push him over the finish line against Keith Jardine, and arguably should have been enough against Forrest Griffin. The other is that, apart from Jardine, the above list features only excellent opponents. In Evans, Machida, and Jones, Jackson’s 1-2 record represents what he’s done against the very best in the light-heavyweight division.

Meanwhile, Ryan Bader has plenty of KO power himself, but I’m not sure he’s what I would call a “precise striker.” Bader was able to knock out Jason Brilz at UFC 139, and also has KO wins over Jardine and Vinny Magalhaes, but he’s not a particularly prolific striker. According to Fight Metric, Bader lands 2.46 significant strikes per minute, which isn’t horrible, but isn’t great either. If a fight between Jackson and Bader goes to decision, it might be close, but I’d lean on the side of Jackson landing with a little more volume and a little more power.

Where Bader succeeds is when he puts his striking and wrestling together. Against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Bader won a relatively dull fight, but did so by mixing in takedowns with strikes, and keeping Nogueira off-balance throughout. Meanwhile, when Bader fought Jon Jones (which is an unfair example already, but oh well), he failed at both striking and wrestling, and was submitted in the second round. If Bader wants to win this fight, he’ll probably need to mix in some takedowns to go along with his strikes.

SILVA PREDICTION: QUINTON JACKSON (81.93) OVER RYAN BADER (68.62)

Good luck. Jackson’s takedown defense is among the stingiest in the sport, as he successfully defends 80 percent of the attempts made against him. And even if Bader manages to take him down, which will probably not happen more than once, it’s not like Bader is some kind of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu wizard. There are a few ways for Bader to win this fight, but no matter which path he chooses, whether it’s winning by KO, winning by striking volume, or winning with wrestling, he’s going to have to be very sharp. Against what is sure to be a motivated “Rampage” fighting in Japan, I don’t think Bader has what it takes to get the job done.