UFC 174 Prediction: Rory MacDonald vs. Tyron Woodley

I like this matchup a lot. Rory MacDonald vs. Tyron Woodley is a great representation of precision vs. power in MMA. MacDonald represents precision, a fighter who lacks knockout power but makes up for it with excellent distance control, volume striking, and effective takedown defense. Woodley represents power, both in the form of the ability to knock out his opponents and in the form of the ability to land takedowns.

I firmly believe the onus is on Woodley to find a way to finish MacDonald in this fight. That’s because I believe MacDonald is going to win this fight if it goes the distance. There are two reasons for this. First is that MacDonald’s takedown defense is outstanding at 88 percent, so it’s unlikely that Woodley will win at least two rounds with takedowns and top control. The second is that MacDonald is an excellent volume striker while Woodley is more of a slugger. I have to think that MacDonald would land more significant strikes than Woodley over the course of three rounds, and that would make MacDonald the clear favorite on the judges’ scorecards.

Consider that Woodley has actually absorbed more significant strikes than he’s landed in his UFC/Strikeforce career, 313 to 320. Now, welterweight champion Johny Hendricks has also absorbed more strikes than he’s landed, so it is possible to overcome mediocrity in that category. However, it’s also worth bringing up Woodley’s loss to Jake Shields as a word of warning. A lot of people thought Woodley deserved to win that fight based on more effective striking, but when the fight actually went to the judges, Shields won based on superior volume (82 to 60 significant strikes).

Unfortunately for MacDonald, he’s landed 424 significant strikes in the UFC and has yet to record a single knockdown. Even Demian Maia managed to knock down Alexander Yakovlev in his last fight, leaving Court McGee as the only UFC welterweight to have landed more significant strikes without a knockdown. That’s the biggest area where Woodley has the advantage over MacDonald, as Woodley has landed six knockdowns total for a ratio of 52.2 strikes per knockdown.

That makes Woodley a power puncher, and MacDonald hasn’t looked overly impressive against power punchers recently. MacDonald’s recent strategy has been to keep this type of fighter at the end of his jab, control distance and try to limit damage as much as possible. That worked against Jake Ellenberger, who looked tentative and hesitant. It didn’t work against Robbie Lawler, who looked relaxed and confident, defeating MacDonald by split decision and making me look stupid. My guess is that Woodley is more inclined to be relaxed and confident like Lawler, so I hope for MacDonald’s sake that he’s willing to be more aggressive with his volume striking in this one.

I say that to set up my thoughts for who is more likely to win. I believe that if Rory MacDonald is at his best, he’s a favorite to beat Tyron Woodley based on his blend of takedown defense and volume striking. However, if we see the same Rory MacDonald we saw against Lawler, then I would have to consider Woodley a favorite to win. After considering both possibilities, I see MacDonald as the slight favorite overall as I tend to side with the fighter I believe is genuinely better.

Just know that I won’t be surprised at all if the threat of a knockout prompts MacDonald to go into a super cautious shell of himself, opening the door for Woodley to blast MacDonald with some power punches and eventually win by knockout or decision. I think and hope we won’t see that Rory MacDonald, but I can’t be too confident because we’ve seen it before.

Pick: Rory MacDonald by decision

UFC 170 Prediction: Rory MacDonald vs. Demian Maia

After a history of picking Rory MacDonald to lose on this blog, I finally relented and acknowledged that MacDonald is an excellent fighter. I did a complete turnaround and not only picked MacDonald to defeat Robbie Lawler, but did so with confidence, thinking MacDonald was an overwhelming favorite to win. It makes sense, then, that MacDonald would turn in his least inspiring performance ever and lose to Lawler by split decision (should have been unanimous).

I don’t know why MacDonald has suddenly become so tentative in his last two fights, but I suspect it was out of a healthy fear of the knockout power of Lawler and Jake Ellenberger. That should not be a concern in this fight – Demian Maia has three career wins by TKO, two of those are due to injury, and the other was in Maia’s first career MMA fight back in 2001. If MacDonald fights so nervously again then there’s something seriously wrong with his psyche.

Maia built up a lot of hype behind him after moving down to welterweight and subsequently defeating Dong Hyun Kim, Rick Story, and Jon Fitch. Those are great wins to be sure although the Fitch win hasn’t aged well. As good as those fighters are, I see them as B/B+ welterweight fighters while MacDonald is an A welterweight fighter. MacDonald is at a different level.

It’s difficult to see Maia putting together a victory here. Obviously Maia has outstanding Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but he’s had an alarming lack of wins by submission in recent fights. After winning his first five UFC fights by submission, Maia has only won one of his last 12 UFC fights by that method. Opponents have shown an increasing ability to at least avoid being finished by Maia – and that means if Maia is able to take MacDonald down there’s no guarantee he would be able to finish the fight.

In this contest I’m skeptical that Maia will be able to land the takedown in the first place. While Maia has been more successful at landing takedowns since moving to 170 pounds, he’s done so against a series of opponents with middling takedown defense:

• Jake Shields: 43% takedown defense
• Jon Fitch: 56%
• Rick Story: 63%

Maia did land one takedown against Dong Hyun Kim (81%) but with the fluky nature of that fight I would hesitate to use it as evidence that Maia is now an offensive force when it comes to takedowns. Here’s the point: in his career Maia has landed 33% of his takedown attempts while MacDonald has defended a whopping 86%. It’s hard to see Maia landing more than one takedown in the fight.

That means this will probably end up being a striking match, and that kind of fight heavily favors MacDonald. While Maia is far from hopeless on the feet, his numbers are predictably mediocre: 317-318 in significant strikes, 0-2 in knockdowns. By contrast MacDonald is up 349-200 in significant strikes although he also has not landed a knockdown in the UFC.

Overall, MacDonald is better at landing strikes with volume and is also better at effectively defending his opponent’s strikes with distance control. I have to think that MacDonald shuts down Maia’s offense and cruises to a points-based decision victory.

Pick: Rory MacDonald by decision

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

I think I missed the boat on getting a good price for MacDonald. He opened at -215 which is a very good price but then the line got pumped up to -300. Those odds are too steep for me – I’m nervous about the potential for MacDonald to fight too nervously again and end up getting out-pointed. I’ll have to pass unless MacDonald is offered at -250 or better again.

UFC 167 Prediction: Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald

There are people who read this blog who probably think I’ll never pick Rory MacDonald to win a fight. I have a history of picking MacDonald to lose on this blog… and needless to say, I’ve been wrong a lot. Well, the day has finally come. Not only do I think MacDonald is going to win, I think he’s actually undervalued as a -350 favorite to defeat Robbie Lawler.

When I look at the statistics the stark reality is that MacDonald is better than Lawler at everything except knockout power. MacDonald has doubled his opponent’s total in significant strikes; Lawler has eaten more strikes than he’s landed. MacDonald is up 15-3 in takedowns; Lawler is down 14-18. MacDonald has been credited with four submission attempts; Lawler has yet to attempt a single one (in a Fight Metric scored bout).

Let’s say for the sake of argument that Lawler is either able to consistently defend MacDonald’s takedown attempts or coax MacDonald into a striking match. In that situation I really don’t like Lawler’s chances of winning on points. Just three fights ago, Lawler landed 24 significant strikes in 15 minutes against a fellow striker in Lorenz Larkin. Against Melvin Manhoef a few years ago, Lawler was out-pointed 23-3 in one round… but it was one of Lawler’s three strikes that ended the fight.

MacDonald is the far better points striker as he’s shown in his recent two fights. His fight against Jake Ellenberger was a snoozer but also a very safe game plan: keep Ellenberger at the end of the jab so MacDonald isn’t at risk of being clipped by one of Ellenberger’s power strikes. Prior to that MacDonald treated B.J. Penn as a punching bag.

Think about the Ellenberger fight as a point of comparison. Lawler’s biggest strength as a fighter is his ability to win by sudden knockout. Ellenberger also has that ability… on top of having much better wrestling and striking defense. MacDonald was able to shut down Ellenberger’s game… so why wouldn’t he be prepared to shut down Lawler?

Unlike Ellenberger, Lawler doesn’t have the takedown defense to prevent MacDonald from taking him down. Unless Lawler (career 63 percent takedown defense) surprises me and thwarts MacDonald’s takedowns, why wouldn’t MacDonald just take Lawler to the ground and eliminate the threat of a knockout?

I feel like Lawler is being overrated based on his strange knockout win over a possibly shot Josh Koscheck and an admittedly impressive thumping of a mid-level welterweight in Bobby Voelker. Lawler earned a top ten status at welterweight with the Koscheck victory but this is the same fighter who was 3-5 in eight Strikeforce fights. MacDonald absolutely should win this fight.

Pick: Rory MacDonald by decision

UFC on Fox 8 Prediction: Jake Ellenberger vs. Rory MacDonald

 

I have a history of being wrong about Rory MacDonald. For a while, MacDonald was viewed as a phenom who was turning in hugely impressive performances for such a young fighter. In contrast, I felt MacDonald was squashing average at best competition and wasn’t nearly as good as advertised when he faced Carlos Condit.

Now that I’m using FPR to make a lot of my evaluations, I have no choice but to throw in the towel and concede that MacDonald truly is a tremendous fighter. He is now ranked #3 in the welterweight division in FPR, thanks to a blend of quality striking, an impressive takedown game, and skill on the ground.

Here I am, ready to show my new respect for MacDonald’s game… and all of a sudden he’s matched up against one of the two fighters rated higher than him in FPR.

That would be Jake Ellenberger, a fighter who has established himself as a wrestler who hits like a truck. Ellenberger has 18 wins by KO/TKO in 35 career fights and five wins by KO/TKO in ten UFC fights. That includes knockout wins over Nate Marquardt, Jake Shields, and Mike Pyle.

On top of that, Ellenberger has been taken down exactly once in the UFC and is running a surplus in significant strikes. I’ve made a big deal out of Johny Hendricks on this blog, and I’ve been justified in doing so, but I really need to show Ellenberger more respect as a potential threat to Georges St-Pierre’s title.

With that said, there’s only one category where Ellenberger has a distinct edge over MacDonald, and that’s knockdowns. Ellenberger has eight of those; MacDonald has zero. Other than that, MacDonald out-paces Ellenberger in strikes, and is a lot more polished on the ground.

There’s a dichotomy in Ellenberger’s game. Half the time, Ellenberger wins by impressive knockout. The other half of the time, it seems Ellenberger either loses or goes to close decision against an opponent he really should beat without much trouble. Ellenberger won by decision against Jay Hieron and Carlos Eduardo Rocha, but both fights were much closer than they should have been.

That means I have to favor MacDonald if this fight goes to decision. MacDonald faded badly against Condit but that’s the only fight where conditioning has been a problem for him. If MacDonald can survive the first round without being finished, I like his chances to win in rounds two and three against a fading Ellenberger.

The key in this fight is wrestling. Both fighters have shown an impressive takedown game throughout their respective UFC careers, both offensively and defensively. They profile as being equals in that area. If either fighter establishes an advantage in takedowns, then that fighter has to be a solid favorite to win overall.

This looks like a 50-50 fight to me. Ellenberger is more likely to win by knockout while MacDonald is more likely to win by submission or decision. Since I’m sure Howard Morton is rooting for MacDonald, I’ll go ahead and pick Ellenberger. After all, nothing ensures a MacDonald victory quite like me picking against him.

Pick: Jake Ellenberger by KO

UFC on Fox 5 Preview and Predictions

The best UFC on Fox card yet takes place tomorrow from Key Arena in Seattle, Washington. Here are my thoughts on the fights:

UFC lightweight championship: Benson Henderson (17-2, 5-0 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (16-7, 11-5 UFC)

After earning upset victories over Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller, Nate Diaz has fought his way to a title shot. It’s remarkable how quickly Diaz has ascended from simply being a good UFC fighter with flaws to being a championship contender. However, Diaz’s recent performances have been just as remarkable. Since moving back to lightweight following losses to Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald, Diaz has put together a three-fight winning streak. During that streak, he smoked former PRIDE champion Takanori Gomi, picked apart Donald Cerrone, and overwhelmed Jim Miller. It wasn’t just that Diaz scored upsets in his last two fights; he looked very impressive in the process.

Of course, Diaz’s problems as a fighter have never been with his boxing, which he used to batter Cerrone, or his jiu-jitsu, which he used to tap out Miller and Gomi. In fact, Diaz might only have one problem as a fighter, but it’s a critical one – his takedown defense. As I explained earlier this week, Diaz does struggle against opponents who land more takedowns. Generally, this results in Diaz losing by decision, and he is seldom (if ever) in true danger of being finished. Right or wrong, the way judges score fights in MMA is to favor the fighter who lands more takedowns, even above the fighter who lands more strikes and attempts more submissions. This is a trend that works against the Diaz brothers.

Unfortunately for Diaz, his opponent in this fight, UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson, is a fighter who lands takedowns somewhat regularly. According to Fight Metric, Henderson landed just one takedown in ten rounds against Frankie Edgar, but prior to those fights, landed 12 takedowns in nine rounds against Clay Guida, Jim Miller, and Mark Bocek. Miller and Bocek in particular are not known for their takedown defense, but neither is Diaz. If Henderson could land takedowns regularly against those fighters, there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t be successful landing takedowns against Diaz as well.

There are two trends that work in Diaz’s favor, and should give fans of his hope that he can pull off the upset. One is that Diaz is likely the better boxer. Henderson’s striking, to the extent he uses it, does feature some effective boxing, but is also reliant on kicks. If Diaz closes the distance, as he typically does, he could neutralize Henderson’s kicks and force Henderson into a boxing match. Henderson’s likely response would be to execute a takedown, but if Henderson has a poor game plan, and chooses to engage Diaz with punches, Diaz is capable of picking him apart.

The other trend is that Henderson tends to get caught in a lot of submission attempts. This is a natural result of Henderson’s aggression on the ground; Henderson typically is very active in trying to land strikes and advance position. And Henderson is a fighter who is not afraid of being caught in a submission attempt; he’s known for being extremely difficult to finish with a submission hold. But if Nate Diaz wants to beat Henderson, and Henderson chooses to land takedowns, one possible path to victory for Diaz is to put Henderson in so many submission attempts that he either wins on points or convinces Henderson to abandon the takedown.

Based on the fight histories of Henderson and Diaz, I think the following things are going to happen:

• Henderson will go for takedowns regularly on Diaz, and decline to engage in a striking war
• Diaz will attempt multiple submissions on Henderson
• Henderson will shake off all submission attempts, and land some big strikes on the ground
• Henderson will win by decision

Light-heavyweight top contender* match: Alexander Gustafsson (14-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-6, 5-4 UFC)

It’s well established that I’m a big fan of both fighters here. Rua is my favorite fighter, period – he brings all the excitement anybody could want, without any of the bravado or bluster. And on the flip side, Alexander Gustafsson is a fighter I’ve been promoting for a while as a potential star in the UFC. This fight represents Gustafsson’s opportunity to prove that he belongs in the upper echelon of the 205 pound division, and Rua’s chance to show that he’s still capable of winning big fights.

Rua’s stint in the UFC as a whole has been somewhat alarming. There have been brilliant performances – his knockouts of Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, his fights with Lyoto Machida – but there have also been disasters. Rua looked just plain ugly in his losses to Griffin and Jon Jones, and wins against Mark Coleman and Brandon Vera.

At this point in his career, Rua is a fighter whose strengths serve to make up for his obvious flaws. Those flaws are a lack of striking defense, and almost unacceptable conditioning. The conditioning problem is a natural result of Rua’s frenetic pace – often, while Rua is exhausted in a fight, so is his opponent. But when Rua’s aggression is ineffective, as was the case against Jones, it leaves Rua as the only one exhausted.

Rua gets away with these glaring flaws by possessing a very strong chin, great striking power, and a lot of mental toughness. These were on display during his war against Dan Henderson at UFC 139, as Rua ate a ton of huge punches, but kept coming back to put Henderson in trouble later in the fight. So it is that Rua is a very dangerous fighter despite his obvious weaknesses. At the same time, the moment Rua’s chin goes from sturdy to unreliable is the moment Rua’s career as a top fighter will come to an end.

Meanwhile, Alexander Gustafsson is a very well-rounded fighter, who might have the ideal skill set to take into the cage to fight Rua. Gustafsson is very good at striking while moving backwards. This, along with Gustafsson’s height (6’5”), could serve to be the perfect antidote to Rua’s constant aggression. If Gustafsson moves well, stays disciplined, and lands strikes while Rua chases him around the cage, he could easily win on points, or perhaps finish by TKO if Rua’s chin has reached the point that it can’t take any more punishment.

It’s also possible that Gustafsson could take Rua to the ground. Gustafsson was already a solid wrestler when he fought Phil Davis (it’s a myth that Gustafsson was weak in this area before that fight), but he’s only gotten better since then. Rua will always be very tricky to deal with on the ground, since he has an arsenal of sweeps and submissions, but Gustafsson might have what it takes to stifle him.

Ultimately, this could be a “changing of the guard” moment in the light-heavyweight division. I think Gustafsson is the better technical striker, the better technical wrestler, and much better conditioned. If he can prevent Rua from knocking him out, I think he stands an excellent chance of winning a decision. That is a big “if,” since Rua is historically one of the best finishers at 205 pounds, but I’ll take Gustafsson by decision in this one.

(*Since this has been billed as a top contender match, I fully expect the winner will NOT get a title shot, and will instead be passed up in favor of Dan Henderson, Phil Davis, or perhaps Urijah Faber.)

Welterweight match: Rory MacDonald (13-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. B.J. Penn (16-8-2, 12-7-2 UFC)

I’ve been swimming against the current on Rory MacDonald for a while now. At the same time a lot of people have been calling him a future champion, I’ve been saying that he’s way overhyped. I even picked Mike Pyle to beat him, which was embarrassing in retrospect. But I’m not about to change my opinion – I don’t think MacDonald is nearly as good as many seem to believe.

First is MacDonald’s record. His UFC wins are as follows: Che Mills, Mike Pyle, Nate Diaz, and Michael Guymon. Diaz is by far the best win on that list, but let’s face it – Diaz is a lightweight, and MacDonald beat him by throwing him around the cage. This is the resume that screams “future champion?”

And I’ll double down by arguing that MacDonald isn’t as good a wrestler as you think either. You may remember MacDonald taking fighters down repeatedly, especially Diaz. But as it turns out, MacDonald’s takedown dominance has taken place against fighters who have very weak takedown defense. This includes Carlos Condit, a fighter MacDonald lost to, and who is known for having weak takedown defense, just like Diaz. Per Fight Metric…

Opponent	Takedown Defense	MacDonald’s takedown ratio
Che Mills	33%	2/0
Carlos Condit	42%	3/0
Nate Diaz	48%	7/0
Michael Guymon	55%	2/0
Mike Pyle	72%	0/2

In fact, the single fighter MacDonald has faced with the best takedown defense was Mike Pyle. In that fight, it was actually Pyle who landed two takedowns on MacDonald. Of course, that’s hard to remember since the fight was all MacDonald outside of those takedowns.

Playing the part of “washed up veteran” here is former UFC welterweight and lightweight champion B.J. Penn. We know all about Penn by now – he’s an excellent boxer with outstanding jiu-jitsu, and is often undone by awful conditioning. But he also has very good takedowns and takedown defense, to the point that Penn was actually winning the takedown battle against Jon Fitch… before he gassed out. If fights were eight minutes long, Penn might still be a UFC champion.

But consider this – Penn might actually be a better wrestler than MacDonald, along with being the better boxer AND better grappler. Consider that MacDonald’s only chance of winning might be for Penn to gas out again. That puts this fight in a whole different light, doesn’t it?

So I’m going out on a limb (again) and picking a fighter to beat Rory MacDonald (again). Doing the same thing but hoping for different results? Perhaps, but MacDonald has never fought anybody as talented as B.J. Penn is, and as talented as MacDonald is, I think Penn wins in an upset.

Welterweight match: Matt Brown (15-11, 8-5 UFC) vs. Mike Swick (15-4, 10-3 UFC)

At first glance, this might seem like a fight that easily favors Mike Swick. After all, Swick is a fighter who has put together a very strong UFC record, taking on an opponent in Matt Brown whose record is 15-11, and whose UFC career has generally been against fringe opposition. Brown’s current three-fight winning streak is against Chris Cope, Stephen Thompson, and Luis Ramos – not an all-star cast.

But there are serious concerns for Swick. For one, this is Swick’s second fight since his long layoff with health issues, and in his first fight back, he looked very shaky against DaMarques Johnson. Swick ended up winning by knockout, but he easily could have lost that way as well. Swick is also a fighter who tends to stand and strike with his opponents, and that’s not the way to beat Matt Brown. If you want to beat Brown, the way to do it is to take him to the ground and submit him – Brown has lost by submission nine times in his career.

In a striking war, I think either Brown wins by TKO or it goes to close decision. But I’m not going to pick Brown to win a mild upset here, because Swick does have a couple wins by guillotine choke, a method Brown has lost by three times. Swick has just enough submission skill that I’ll side with him to win this fight. But it’s a close one.

Lightweight match: Yves Edwards (41-18-1, 9-6 UFC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (20-8, 7-7 UFC)

Undoubtedly, there are many fans who have fond memories of Yves Edwards being one of the more talented lightweights in the UFC in 2003 and 2004. Many of those fans are likely picking Edwards to win this fight, for nostalgia’s sake if nothing else. But I feel that’s a mistake. Edwards’s wins since returning to the UFC are against Rafaello Oliveira, Cody McKenzie, and John Gunderson. Meanwhile, he’s been knocked out COLD by Sam Stout, whose “Hands of Stone” nickname is known for being ironic more than anything. I think Stephens wins by either decision or TKO.

Bantamweight match: Raphael Assuncao (18-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Mike Easton (13-1, 3-0 UFC)

Mike Easton is another fighter I feel is overhyped. While some are calling him a future title contender, Easton almost lost to Jared Papazian of all people. Easton is a notoriously slow starter, tends to eat strikes, and doesn’t use his wrestling and ground game enough. Raphael Assuncao is a quality, well-rounded fighter. If Easton is going to effectively give Assuncao the first round, which Easton is known to do, I have to take Assuncao to win in an upset.

Lightweight match: Ramsey Nijem (6-2, 2-1 UFC) vs. Joe Proctor (8-1, 1-0 UFC)

Nijem and Proctor have both looked fairly impressive in the UFC against low-level competition. This fight effectively determines which fighter will advance to take on more established opponents in the lightweight division. Ultimately, I see Nijem as the more talented fighter, and I think he’ll control this one with takedowns and boxing to win a decision.

Lightweight match: Daron Cruickshank (11-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Henry Martinez (9-2, 1-1 UFC)

Henry Martinez is a great example of the “Riddle effect.” The Riddle effect is when a fighter looks like a fantastic striker because he fought Matt Riddle. When Martinez then fought Bernardo Magalhaes, he won a very unimpressive split decision. Daron Cruickshank is a much more talented striker, and I like him to win this fight.

Lightweight match: Marcus LeVesseur (22-6, 1-1 UFC) vs. Abel Trujillo (9-4, 0-0 UFC)

You have no idea how much I was looking forward to seeing Tim Means fight again. Instead, we get Marcus LeVesseur, a wrestler who lost to Cody McKenzie’s guillotine choke before beating Carlo Prater by split decision. His opponent is Abel Trujillo, who my research has nothing good to say about. Trujillo has an unimpressive record, and on tape, did not appear to have polished boxing or submissions. If this is a battle of wrestlers, LeVesseur is better at it, so I have to pick him to win.

Featherweight match: Nam Phan (18-10, 2-3 UFC) vs. Dennis Siver (20-8, 9-5 UFC)

I’m a big fan of the matchmaking for this event for most of the fights, but when I see fights like this one, it makes me agree with Quinton Jackson’s idea that Joe Silva “can’t match shoes.” It’s not because Phan has no chance – I could definitely see Phan winning this fight on points. It’s that this fight makes no sense. Why is an established contender like Siver fighting Nam Phan? As for the fight, I have to take Siver to win, either on points or by knockout.

Bantamweight match: John Albert (7-3, 1-2 UFC) vs. Scott Jorgensen (13-6, 2-2 UFC)

Albert’s a fun fighter to watch, but he’s biting off more than he can chew here. Jorgensen’s stock is down after losses to Renan Barao and Eddie Wineland, but those are two of the better fighters in the bantamweight division. Jorgensen is still a great wrestler with a decent jab and straight punch. I see him neutralizing Albert’s offense and winning by TKO or decision.