UFC Fight Night Albuquerque Prediction: Benson Henderson vs. Rustam Khabilov

Let me say this right off the bat: I love that the UFC is giving Rustam Khabilov this opportunity. At 17-1 Khabilov is experienced enough that his skills as a fighter are pretty much developed at this point, with only minor improvements to his game ahead. At 3-0 in the UFC Khabilov has made a very good impression so far and now is being rewarded with a chance to get his name right in the middle of title contention.

Khabilov’s debut was against Vinc Pichel, a fight in which Khabilov slammed Pichel to the canvas five times in half a round. Khabilov followed that up by stopping Yancy Medeiros as Medeiros suffered a thumb injury on a Khabilov slam. Through three fights and about four rounds of fighting, Khabilov has landed eight takedowns total. That’s a very high rate of takedowns landed, and that’s a good thing for Khabilov because Benson Henderson’s takedown defense is pretty average at 65 percent.

However, I also have a few problems envisioning a victory for Khabilov here. One is that Khabilov’s ability to land takedowns was suddenly diminished in his fight against Jorge Masvidal. Khabilov was just 2 for 10 in that fight over the course of three rounds. Masvidal has tough takedown defense at 81 percent, but it showed that a fighter with quality takedown defense can largely shut down Khabilov’s takedown game.

Another problem is that as much as Khabilov can land the takedown, he hasn’t shown much ability to hold his opponent down and threaten submissions. Khabilov enters with one submission attempt despite his eight takedowns landed. Attempting submissions is one of the best ways to attack Henderson, so it would benefit Khabilov to focus on not just landing the takedown, but doing something with it.

Finally, even though Khabilov was able to almost equal Masvidal’s standing strikes output, he didn’t land strikes at very high volume. The final significant strike total in that fight was Masvidal 38, Khabilov 32. If Khabilov is unable to land takedowns on Henderson consistently, it’s hard to see him winning on points with standing strikes.

A lot of people think Henderson is overrated, and I understand why. Henderson has won a number of close decisions in recent fights. A lot of people believe Henderson deserved to lose to Josh Thomson, Gilbert Melendez, and Frankie Edgar. The only one of those fights I thought Henderson clearly should have lost was the Thomson fight, but in a lot of minds, Henderson is the fighter who should be losing all the time but isn’t.

The key here is that while Henderson’s fights are often close, he never gets blown out. Henderson is excellent at limiting his opponent’s striking output, and has absorbed just 1.41 significant strikes per minute despite his middling takedown defense. When Henderson is able to limit his opponent to 8-12 significant strikes per round, it lowers the bar for how much offensive output he needs to win rounds. In a lot of cases, all it takes is a well-timed flurry, takedown, or grappling sequence to swing a round his way.

The reality is that Henderson is an example of a fighter who is pretty good at everything except striking offense. Against Khabilov, I anticipate that Henderson will be taken down a few times, but I also think Henderson will be the more effective striker and more aggressive with submission offense as well. There is some upset potential here but I think Henderson’s well-rounded game will be enough for him to win on points in the end.

Pick: Benson Henderson by decision

UFC on Fox 7 Preview and Predictions

I’m really excited for this event. There are a bunch of fighters I’m really enthusiastic about on this card – this might be the best UFC on Fox card yet. Here are my thoughts on the fights:

Main Event: UFC Lightweight Championship Match (5 rounds)

Benson Henderson (18-2, 6-0 UFC) vs. Gilbert Melendez (21-2, 0-0 UFC)

I love getting championship fights in the main event of UFC on Fox shows, and I love seeing Benson Henderson defending his title against Gilbert Melendez on Fox. This looks like it will be a seriously action-packed fight; Henderson and Melendez are both known to set a very high pace and stick to it for five rounds. Outside of Melendez-Aoki, I can’t think of a fight involving either of these guys that I wasn’t thoroughly entertained by.

On the feet, I think this fight is going to be very even and close. Melendez tends to strike at a very high pace – he’s not afraid to move into striking range and mix it up with his opponents, and that’s led to a lot of exciting battles. Melendez has fast hands and throws them with very high volume. In contrast, Henderson doesn’t throw as many strikes, but he’s more accurate and does a better job of defending his opponent’s strikes. As long as this fight stays standing, it will be a battle between the aggression of Melendez and the more measured attack of Henderson.

While the striking game should be close on paper, I feel Henderson has an advantage in wrestling and grappling. Both fighters have landed takedowns somewhat frequently, but Henderson lands more takedowns and tends to do more with them. Henderson will actively engage his opponent on the ground, landing hard strikes and looking to set up submissions, while Melendez is more likely to just let his opponent stand back up. Since I think Henderson will probably land more takedowns in the fight, I think he’s more likely than Melendez to win a decision if the fight goes the distance (and it probably will).

With that said, I think Melendez has a much better chance of winning than the current betting lines would indicate. Right now, Henderson is about a -300 favorite, and Melendez is about a +250 underdog. Melendez deserves more respect than that in my opinion – if he can defend Henderson’s takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, there’s a very good chance that he can win this fight on points, or even win by TKO, since Henderson doesn’t have a fantastic chin (he’s never lost by TKO but has been knocked down multiple times). There’s a chance that Melendez can land a couple takedowns on Henderson as well.

If Henderson wins the takedown battle, I think he wins the fight. Otherwise, it’s a fight that could go either way.

Pick: Benson Henderson by decision

Co-Main Event: UFC Heavyweight Match (3 rounds)

Daniel Cormier (11-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (16-6, 14-6 UFC)

As I explained in my stats breakdown the other day, I think this is a horrible stylistic matchup for Frank Mir. Mir is an excellent submission fighter, and is very dangerous the moment a fight hits the floor, even off his back. While standing, Mir hits hard, but doesn’t have good technical striking, and just gets hit a lot. All six of Mir’s career losses are by TKO, and I think there’s a very good chance that Cormier will deliver number seven on Saturday evening.

The reason is because I don’t see how Mir can take Cormier to the ground. Mir’s ability to take down his opponents is fairly good by MMA standards, but that won’t be good enough against Cormier, a former Olympian in freestyle wrestling. Cormier has yet to be taken down in an MMA fight, and from what I’ve seen, nobody has come particularly close. It’s hard to imagine Mir being the first.

That means this fight will stay standing, and that’s bad news for Mir. Cormier has displayed a very smart striking approach in his fights. He has a good sense of when he’s in the right range to throw strikes, and is very good at clinching when his opponent fires back, effectively neutralizing his opponent’s attack. Cormier’s striking isn’t world-class by any means, but it should be good enough for him to out-strike Mir, who has never shown an ability to defend strikes effectively at all.

With Cormier’s nearly impenetrable takedown defense and Mir’s history of being finished by strikes, I just don’t see this fight going Mir’s way at all.

Pick: Daniel Cormier by TKO

UFC Lightweight Match (3 rounds)

Nate Diaz (16-8, 11-6 UFC) vs. Josh Thomson (19-5, 2-1 UFC)

I’ve been guilty of underrating Nate Diaz in the past. Diaz has a number of flaws as a fighter. Most notably, he has poor takedown defense, and doesn’t defend strikes particularly well. What I haven’t given Diaz credit for enough is his ability to wear his opponents out with volume, and his ability to threaten with submission attempts on the ground.

I’m going to risk underrating Diaz again, because I think Thomson can win this fight in an upset. Thomson is a badly underrated fighter in my opinion. He has a very well-rounded skill set, and the resume of a top 15 lightweight, but rarely is mentioned as one of the better lightweights in the world. I’m not saying Thomson is a threat to become UFC champion – his striking and wrestling aren’t quite good enough for that – but there are a lot of highly-ranked fighters he can beat.

Thomson matches up really well with Diaz in my opinion. He has good enough takedowns that he should be able to put Diaz on his back, and a quality submission game that should keep him out of danger on the ground. Thomson is also a smart fighter who should know to go for takedowns early (unlike Jim Miller, whose inexplicable decision to stand and strike with Diaz got him hurt and later submitted). Diaz is definitely a tough opponent, but I like Thomson’s chances.

Pick: Josh Thomson by decision

UFC Welterweight Match (3 rounds)

Matt Brown (16-11, 9-5 UFC) vs. Jordan Mein (27-8, 1-0 UFC)

Matt Brown is another fighter I’ve been guilty of underrating. Brown is 5-1 in his last six fights, but I believe the only time I actually picked him to win was when he fought Chris Cope at UFC 143. Brown doesn’t have the talent of most UFC fighters, but he’s very aggressive and tough to finish. Any time Brown is matched up against a striker, he’s at least going to make the fight entertaining – which means this should be an entertaining fight, since Jordan Mein definitely fits the description of “striker.”

At the same time, Mein should prove to be a higher level of striker than the fighters Brown has faced recently. Mein showcased his skills against Dan Miller in his last fight, finishing Miller late in the first round after having to escape an armbar early. Mein has more technical striking than Brown, better defense, and should have better conditioning as well. As long as Mein doesn’t give up too many takedowns, this is his fight to lose.

Pick: Jordan Mein by decision

I’m short on time, so it’s time to go to the lightning round for the preliminary fights…

-I’m really impressed by what Darren Elkins has done in his recent career, but he has run into the wrong opponent in Chad Mendes. Mendes should prove to be better than Elkins everywhere and win by decision.

-I picked against Francis Carmont in his last fight, because I think he’s overrated, but I think he matches up well with Lorenz Larkin. Larkin will have the advantage standing, but I think Carmont can land takedowns and do just enough to win a decision.

-It’s no secret I’m a huge fan of Myles Jury. I was so impressed by how he was able to completely shut down Michael Johnson in his last fight – his wrestling was on point and he took a very intelligent approach to the fight. Ramsey Nijem will likely put up more of a fight than Johnson did, but he’s not nearly good enough for me to get off the Jury hype train. Jury by decision.

–Darren Uyenoyama has fantastic grappling, which is great when he’s not fighting Joseph Benavidez. Benavidez should be able to keep this fight standing and cruise to a decision.

-I really like Tim Means, but one problem I’ve had is that when I get excited about a fighter, I tend to pick him even when he steps up in competition, and often get burned for it. Jorge Masvidal represents a huge step up in competition for Means, so I’m going to try to use my head and pick Masvidal here. I’ll be kicking myself if Means wins though.

-If T.J. Dillashaw is smart, he’ll take Hugo Viana to the ground. Viana is an aggressive striker with good power for the bantamweight division, but as long as Dillashaw goes for takedowns, Viana shouldn’t have the takedown defense to stop him or the submission game to threaten him on the ground.

–Roger Bowling is a very aggressive fighter, but struggles to land takedowns, leaves himself wide open to taking strikes, and tends to fade in the second round. Anthony Njokuani is a great volume striker, and should be good enough to defend most of Bowling’s takedowns and easily win the striking battle.

–Yoel Romero has a great amateur wrestling background, but he is far from a finished product in MMA. His striking is very sloppy and he struggled badly to land takedowns against Rafael Cavalcante in his last fight. I think Romero can land takedowns on Clifford Starks, so I’ll pick him to win here, but if Starks can stop his takedowns, he should easily win the striking battle. This one really can go either way.

UFC on Fox 7 Stats Breakdown

It’s time to dig into the Fight Metric statistics of the fighters scheduled to compete on the main card of UFC on Fox 7 on Saturday:

UFC Lightweight Championship Match: Benson Henderson vs. Gilbert Melendez

• Melendez has a significant strike margin of +1.48 per minute, compared to +1.39 for Henderson.
• On a per 15 minute basis, Henderson lands 3.2 takedowns in 6.3 attempts, while Melendez lands 1.9 takedowns in 4.4 attempts.
• Henderson averages 1.02 submission attempts per 15 minutes, compared to just 0.3 for Melendez.

If Gilbert Melendez wants to beat Benson Henderson to become UFC lightweight champion, the striking game is probably his best bet. Melendez and Henderson have very similar overall striking numbers, but if Melendez can keep this fight standing, there’s a good possibility that he can out-point Henderson. If Henderson succeeds in mixing in takedowns to go along with his striking, he’ll be much more likely to win a decision.

Heavyweight Match: Daniel Cormier vs. Frank Mir

• Cormier has a very high significant strike margin of +2.50 per minute, far better than Mir’s margin of -1.38.
• Mir gets hit by 60% of significant strikes thrown at him, compared to just 29% for Cormier.
• On a per 15 minute basis, Mir normally lands 2.8 takedowns in 6.0 attempts, but Cormier has never been taken down in an MMA fight.

On paper, this is a nightmare match-up for Frank Mir. Cormier should have a massive advantage in both wrestling and striking. Mir probably will need to finish Cormier if he wants to win this fight, but if he can’t take Cormier down, he won’t win by submission, and it’s hard to see Mir winning by knockout either.

Lightweight Match: Nate Diaz vs. Josh Thomson

• Diaz has a significant strike margin of +0.87 per minute, compared to +0.63 for Thomson.
• Per 15 minutes, Thomson lands an average of 1.7 takedowns in 4.3 attempts. Diaz only succeeds in defending 46% of takedowns attempted against him.
• Diaz has attempted 22 submissions in his Fight Metric career, and has had nine attempted against him, but nobody has attempted a submission against Diaz since his loss to Joe Stevenson in June 2009.

I’ve thought for a while that Josh Thomson is a badly underrated fighter, and I still feel that way, even after Thomson took Gilbert Melendez to a very close decision in May of last year. Diaz figures to have the advantage against Thomson as long as the fight stays standing, but if Thomson can land takedowns, he can absolutely win this fight. Diaz is active with submission attempts on the ground, but Thomson has never been submitted in his 24 fight career.

Welterweight Match: Matt Brown vs. Jordan Mein

• Mein has a significant strike margin of +1.49 per minute, compared to +1.13 for Brown.
• Per 15 minutes, Brown lands an average of 1.8 takedowns in 3.8 attempts, while Mein has not a landed a takedown in the four fights of his that have been tracked by Fight Metric.
• Mein successfully avoids 74% of the significant strikes thrown against him, compared to 58% for Brown.

Matt Brown figures to be a very tough opponent for Jordan Mein. Mein is the better striker on paper, and probably figures to have better conditioning as well. But Mein’s takedowns and takedown defense are big concerns, and if Brown can land takedowns in this fight, he could definitely win on the judges’ scorecards, if not force Mein to tap out due to a submission hold. Either way, this figures to be a fun, action-packed fight, which is probably why the UFC chose this fight to open the Fox main card.

So if the stats are any indication, it looks like we’re going to have three very competitive fights, and one not-so-competitive fight (Cormier-Mir). Stay tuned for more coverage of UFC on Fox later this week!

UFC on Fox 5 Post-Fight Analysis

Before I go into the fights, I want to say this was probably the most entertaining fight card I’ve watched this year, the most entertaining since UFC 139. Almost every fight was action-packed. Kudos to these fighters and the UFC for a great night of fights.

–Benson Henderson fought very smart against Nate Diaz. He basically made the fight anything but a boxing match, which is what Diaz would have wanted. Henderson had very hard kicks, a bunch of takedowns, strong ground and pound, and even some power punches that dropped Diaz multiple times. I’ll never cease to be amazed at the Diaz brothers and their ability to take so much punishment, but never come close to being stopped. Diaz’s identity in the lightweight division hasn’t changed – he’s a good fighter, above-average in the talent-rich lightweight division, but not a championship level fighter.

–Mauricio Rua’s days of being an elite light-heavyweight have sadly come to an end. It’s sad for me, because I’m such a fan of his, but “Shogun” was out-struck, out-wrestled, and just plain out-fought by Alexander Gustafsson. Rua was competitive, and landed a number of hard strikes, particularly in the second round, but the flaws that have shown up in his recent fights were on full display in this one. Rua can get away with those flaws against opponents like Brandon Vera, but Gustafsson was too skilled for him.

-And don’t get me wrong, I’m thrilled for Gustafsson, as he’s a fighter I’ve touted as a potential title contender for a while. But Gustafsson himself showed flaws that fighters like Jon Jones or Rashad Evans would be able to exploit better. Gustafsson ate a number of overhand rights and left hooks, and had a lot of difficulty controlling Rua on the ground. His performance was still very good overall, but he still has some improving to do if he wants to be competitive against Jones.

-The nine-year rule is alive and well, as was shown by both Rua and B.J. Penn. And I’ll admit right now to being horribly wrong about Penn against Rory MacDonald. While I felt MacDonald was overrated and overhyped, I conveniently forgot that the same is true of Penn, and that Penn hasn’t really been good since he fought Diego Sanchez. MacDonald showed the best striking of his career, particularly with body shots, and really controlled the entire fight. MacDonald is legitimately a very good UFC welterweight, one who at least deserves to be regarded alongside names like Josh Koscheck and Martin Kampmann. As for Penn… if he doesn’t retire again, which is what I would recommend, he really needs to fight at 155 pounds. But Penn will never be a contender again. I accept the virtual tomatoes you surely want to throw at me for my prediction…

–Mike Swick looked rough against DaMarques Johnson, and even rougher against Matt Brown. The Swick of a few years ago would likely have kept up with Brown standing before either submitting him, or wearing him out to take a decision. The Swick we saw tonight was a fighter who really needs to take a hard look at how much longer he should keep fighting. I hate to say that, because Swick is talented, but it’s clear his long layoff and health issues have negatively affected him, and I fear what will happen if he keeps taking beatings like the one Brown dished out.

-Fans of old-school fighters did have one great moment, when Yves Edwards knocked out Jeremy Stephens. It was a great moment for Edwards, who seems like a genuinely nice guy and a skilled fighter. But even in this short fight, Edwards took a number of big strikes. His long-term outlook is unchanged… he has virtually no upside in the UFC lightweight division. If Edwards keeps being matched up against strikers, he’s bound to get knocked out again.

-Once again, Mike Easton opted to stand and strike with an opponent, instead of using the strength of his game (grappling). But this time, Easton didn’t get away with it, as he was methodically out-struck by Raphael Assuncao. Easton can be forgiven for not wanting to grapple with the jiu-jitsu expert in Assuncao, but at the same time he was exposed by Assuncao’s boxing. Easton is an average UFC bantamweight, one who will beat fringe competition like Byron Bloodworth, but one who will struggle against quality UFC fighters.

–Ramsey Nijem was good enough to beat Joe Proctor, but took a lot of punishment and was put in some bad situations at times. Proctor was a good choice of opponent for Nijem, as Proctor is a skilled opponent. I would have liked to see Nijem win more decisively for him to step up to a tougher level of competition at lightweight, but I think he would be better served by getting a little more experience against lower-level UFC lightweights for the time being.

-I still don’t understand what people see in Henry Martinez. He showed a lot of toughness, and did damage to Daron Cruickshank in flurries, but his striking was unpolished, and he took a ton of punishment in under two rounds. Cruickshank looked good, particularly with his kicks, but he also took punishment, and has been knocked out before. Cruickshank looks like he’ll be an exciting fighter for the future, as his offense is a lot better than his defense.

–Abel Trujillo made the most of his UFC debut, stopping Marcus LeVesseur by strikes. I hate to be too negative, and I feel like this post is trending that way too much, but LeVesseur really isn’t a UFC-level fighter. Trujillo did a good job of pouring it on when he had LeVesseur hurt, and certainly showed more talent than I saw from him on tape. But he still has a lot to prove.

–Dennis Siver looked fantastic at 145 pounds. It still seems ridiculous that he’s fighting at featherweight, given how big he is, but he established a frenetic pace and kept it up for three hard rounds. Nam Phan didn’t stand a chance. Why Sean Shelby (I always forget Shelby is the matchmaker at weight classes below lightweight) thought Phan would be a good match for Siver is beyond me – Siver basically treated Phan like a grappling dummy…

–John Albert is a fun fighter to watch because of his aggression, but in the UFC, his aggression has translated more to being finished than anything else. On one hand, I don’t want to see Albert get cut, but on the other, he almost has to be at this point. Scott Jorgensen may not be a great bantamweight, but he’s a well-established gatekeeper at the very least, and he really belongs somewhere other than the Facebook prelims.

UFC on Fox 5 Preview and Predictions

The best UFC on Fox card yet takes place tomorrow from Key Arena in Seattle, Washington. Here are my thoughts on the fights:

UFC lightweight championship: Benson Henderson (17-2, 5-0 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (16-7, 11-5 UFC)

After earning upset victories over Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller, Nate Diaz has fought his way to a title shot. It’s remarkable how quickly Diaz has ascended from simply being a good UFC fighter with flaws to being a championship contender. However, Diaz’s recent performances have been just as remarkable. Since moving back to lightweight following losses to Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald, Diaz has put together a three-fight winning streak. During that streak, he smoked former PRIDE champion Takanori Gomi, picked apart Donald Cerrone, and overwhelmed Jim Miller. It wasn’t just that Diaz scored upsets in his last two fights; he looked very impressive in the process.

Of course, Diaz’s problems as a fighter have never been with his boxing, which he used to batter Cerrone, or his jiu-jitsu, which he used to tap out Miller and Gomi. In fact, Diaz might only have one problem as a fighter, but it’s a critical one – his takedown defense. As I explained earlier this week, Diaz does struggle against opponents who land more takedowns. Generally, this results in Diaz losing by decision, and he is seldom (if ever) in true danger of being finished. Right or wrong, the way judges score fights in MMA is to favor the fighter who lands more takedowns, even above the fighter who lands more strikes and attempts more submissions. This is a trend that works against the Diaz brothers.

Unfortunately for Diaz, his opponent in this fight, UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson, is a fighter who lands takedowns somewhat regularly. According to Fight Metric, Henderson landed just one takedown in ten rounds against Frankie Edgar, but prior to those fights, landed 12 takedowns in nine rounds against Clay Guida, Jim Miller, and Mark Bocek. Miller and Bocek in particular are not known for their takedown defense, but neither is Diaz. If Henderson could land takedowns regularly against those fighters, there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t be successful landing takedowns against Diaz as well.

There are two trends that work in Diaz’s favor, and should give fans of his hope that he can pull off the upset. One is that Diaz is likely the better boxer. Henderson’s striking, to the extent he uses it, does feature some effective boxing, but is also reliant on kicks. If Diaz closes the distance, as he typically does, he could neutralize Henderson’s kicks and force Henderson into a boxing match. Henderson’s likely response would be to execute a takedown, but if Henderson has a poor game plan, and chooses to engage Diaz with punches, Diaz is capable of picking him apart.

The other trend is that Henderson tends to get caught in a lot of submission attempts. This is a natural result of Henderson’s aggression on the ground; Henderson typically is very active in trying to land strikes and advance position. And Henderson is a fighter who is not afraid of being caught in a submission attempt; he’s known for being extremely difficult to finish with a submission hold. But if Nate Diaz wants to beat Henderson, and Henderson chooses to land takedowns, one possible path to victory for Diaz is to put Henderson in so many submission attempts that he either wins on points or convinces Henderson to abandon the takedown.

Based on the fight histories of Henderson and Diaz, I think the following things are going to happen:

• Henderson will go for takedowns regularly on Diaz, and decline to engage in a striking war
• Diaz will attempt multiple submissions on Henderson
• Henderson will shake off all submission attempts, and land some big strikes on the ground
• Henderson will win by decision

Light-heavyweight top contender* match: Alexander Gustafsson (14-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-6, 5-4 UFC)

It’s well established that I’m a big fan of both fighters here. Rua is my favorite fighter, period – he brings all the excitement anybody could want, without any of the bravado or bluster. And on the flip side, Alexander Gustafsson is a fighter I’ve been promoting for a while as a potential star in the UFC. This fight represents Gustafsson’s opportunity to prove that he belongs in the upper echelon of the 205 pound division, and Rua’s chance to show that he’s still capable of winning big fights.

Rua’s stint in the UFC as a whole has been somewhat alarming. There have been brilliant performances – his knockouts of Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, his fights with Lyoto Machida – but there have also been disasters. Rua looked just plain ugly in his losses to Griffin and Jon Jones, and wins against Mark Coleman and Brandon Vera.

At this point in his career, Rua is a fighter whose strengths serve to make up for his obvious flaws. Those flaws are a lack of striking defense, and almost unacceptable conditioning. The conditioning problem is a natural result of Rua’s frenetic pace – often, while Rua is exhausted in a fight, so is his opponent. But when Rua’s aggression is ineffective, as was the case against Jones, it leaves Rua as the only one exhausted.

Rua gets away with these glaring flaws by possessing a very strong chin, great striking power, and a lot of mental toughness. These were on display during his war against Dan Henderson at UFC 139, as Rua ate a ton of huge punches, but kept coming back to put Henderson in trouble later in the fight. So it is that Rua is a very dangerous fighter despite his obvious weaknesses. At the same time, the moment Rua’s chin goes from sturdy to unreliable is the moment Rua’s career as a top fighter will come to an end.

Meanwhile, Alexander Gustafsson is a very well-rounded fighter, who might have the ideal skill set to take into the cage to fight Rua. Gustafsson is very good at striking while moving backwards. This, along with Gustafsson’s height (6’5”), could serve to be the perfect antidote to Rua’s constant aggression. If Gustafsson moves well, stays disciplined, and lands strikes while Rua chases him around the cage, he could easily win on points, or perhaps finish by TKO if Rua’s chin has reached the point that it can’t take any more punishment.

It’s also possible that Gustafsson could take Rua to the ground. Gustafsson was already a solid wrestler when he fought Phil Davis (it’s a myth that Gustafsson was weak in this area before that fight), but he’s only gotten better since then. Rua will always be very tricky to deal with on the ground, since he has an arsenal of sweeps and submissions, but Gustafsson might have what it takes to stifle him.

Ultimately, this could be a “changing of the guard” moment in the light-heavyweight division. I think Gustafsson is the better technical striker, the better technical wrestler, and much better conditioned. If he can prevent Rua from knocking him out, I think he stands an excellent chance of winning a decision. That is a big “if,” since Rua is historically one of the best finishers at 205 pounds, but I’ll take Gustafsson by decision in this one.

(*Since this has been billed as a top contender match, I fully expect the winner will NOT get a title shot, and will instead be passed up in favor of Dan Henderson, Phil Davis, or perhaps Urijah Faber.)

Welterweight match: Rory MacDonald (13-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. B.J. Penn (16-8-2, 12-7-2 UFC)

I’ve been swimming against the current on Rory MacDonald for a while now. At the same time a lot of people have been calling him a future champion, I’ve been saying that he’s way overhyped. I even picked Mike Pyle to beat him, which was embarrassing in retrospect. But I’m not about to change my opinion – I don’t think MacDonald is nearly as good as many seem to believe.

First is MacDonald’s record. His UFC wins are as follows: Che Mills, Mike Pyle, Nate Diaz, and Michael Guymon. Diaz is by far the best win on that list, but let’s face it – Diaz is a lightweight, and MacDonald beat him by throwing him around the cage. This is the resume that screams “future champion?”

And I’ll double down by arguing that MacDonald isn’t as good a wrestler as you think either. You may remember MacDonald taking fighters down repeatedly, especially Diaz. But as it turns out, MacDonald’s takedown dominance has taken place against fighters who have very weak takedown defense. This includes Carlos Condit, a fighter MacDonald lost to, and who is known for having weak takedown defense, just like Diaz. Per Fight Metric…

Opponent	Takedown Defense	MacDonald’s takedown ratio
Che Mills	33%	2/0
Carlos Condit	42%	3/0
Nate Diaz	48%	7/0
Michael Guymon	55%	2/0
Mike Pyle	72%	0/2

In fact, the single fighter MacDonald has faced with the best takedown defense was Mike Pyle. In that fight, it was actually Pyle who landed two takedowns on MacDonald. Of course, that’s hard to remember since the fight was all MacDonald outside of those takedowns.

Playing the part of “washed up veteran” here is former UFC welterweight and lightweight champion B.J. Penn. We know all about Penn by now – he’s an excellent boxer with outstanding jiu-jitsu, and is often undone by awful conditioning. But he also has very good takedowns and takedown defense, to the point that Penn was actually winning the takedown battle against Jon Fitch… before he gassed out. If fights were eight minutes long, Penn might still be a UFC champion.

But consider this – Penn might actually be a better wrestler than MacDonald, along with being the better boxer AND better grappler. Consider that MacDonald’s only chance of winning might be for Penn to gas out again. That puts this fight in a whole different light, doesn’t it?

So I’m going out on a limb (again) and picking a fighter to beat Rory MacDonald (again). Doing the same thing but hoping for different results? Perhaps, but MacDonald has never fought anybody as talented as B.J. Penn is, and as talented as MacDonald is, I think Penn wins in an upset.

Welterweight match: Matt Brown (15-11, 8-5 UFC) vs. Mike Swick (15-4, 10-3 UFC)

At first glance, this might seem like a fight that easily favors Mike Swick. After all, Swick is a fighter who has put together a very strong UFC record, taking on an opponent in Matt Brown whose record is 15-11, and whose UFC career has generally been against fringe opposition. Brown’s current three-fight winning streak is against Chris Cope, Stephen Thompson, and Luis Ramos – not an all-star cast.

But there are serious concerns for Swick. For one, this is Swick’s second fight since his long layoff with health issues, and in his first fight back, he looked very shaky against DaMarques Johnson. Swick ended up winning by knockout, but he easily could have lost that way as well. Swick is also a fighter who tends to stand and strike with his opponents, and that’s not the way to beat Matt Brown. If you want to beat Brown, the way to do it is to take him to the ground and submit him – Brown has lost by submission nine times in his career.

In a striking war, I think either Brown wins by TKO or it goes to close decision. But I’m not going to pick Brown to win a mild upset here, because Swick does have a couple wins by guillotine choke, a method Brown has lost by three times. Swick has just enough submission skill that I’ll side with him to win this fight. But it’s a close one.

Lightweight match: Yves Edwards (41-18-1, 9-6 UFC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (20-8, 7-7 UFC)

Undoubtedly, there are many fans who have fond memories of Yves Edwards being one of the more talented lightweights in the UFC in 2003 and 2004. Many of those fans are likely picking Edwards to win this fight, for nostalgia’s sake if nothing else. But I feel that’s a mistake. Edwards’s wins since returning to the UFC are against Rafaello Oliveira, Cody McKenzie, and John Gunderson. Meanwhile, he’s been knocked out COLD by Sam Stout, whose “Hands of Stone” nickname is known for being ironic more than anything. I think Stephens wins by either decision or TKO.

Bantamweight match: Raphael Assuncao (18-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Mike Easton (13-1, 3-0 UFC)

Mike Easton is another fighter I feel is overhyped. While some are calling him a future title contender, Easton almost lost to Jared Papazian of all people. Easton is a notoriously slow starter, tends to eat strikes, and doesn’t use his wrestling and ground game enough. Raphael Assuncao is a quality, well-rounded fighter. If Easton is going to effectively give Assuncao the first round, which Easton is known to do, I have to take Assuncao to win in an upset.

Lightweight match: Ramsey Nijem (6-2, 2-1 UFC) vs. Joe Proctor (8-1, 1-0 UFC)

Nijem and Proctor have both looked fairly impressive in the UFC against low-level competition. This fight effectively determines which fighter will advance to take on more established opponents in the lightweight division. Ultimately, I see Nijem as the more talented fighter, and I think he’ll control this one with takedowns and boxing to win a decision.

Lightweight match: Daron Cruickshank (11-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Henry Martinez (9-2, 1-1 UFC)

Henry Martinez is a great example of the “Riddle effect.” The Riddle effect is when a fighter looks like a fantastic striker because he fought Matt Riddle. When Martinez then fought Bernardo Magalhaes, he won a very unimpressive split decision. Daron Cruickshank is a much more talented striker, and I like him to win this fight.

Lightweight match: Marcus LeVesseur (22-6, 1-1 UFC) vs. Abel Trujillo (9-4, 0-0 UFC)

You have no idea how much I was looking forward to seeing Tim Means fight again. Instead, we get Marcus LeVesseur, a wrestler who lost to Cody McKenzie’s guillotine choke before beating Carlo Prater by split decision. His opponent is Abel Trujillo, who my research has nothing good to say about. Trujillo has an unimpressive record, and on tape, did not appear to have polished boxing or submissions. If this is a battle of wrestlers, LeVesseur is better at it, so I have to pick him to win.

Featherweight match: Nam Phan (18-10, 2-3 UFC) vs. Dennis Siver (20-8, 9-5 UFC)

I’m a big fan of the matchmaking for this event for most of the fights, but when I see fights like this one, it makes me agree with Quinton Jackson’s idea that Joe Silva “can’t match shoes.” It’s not because Phan has no chance – I could definitely see Phan winning this fight on points. It’s that this fight makes no sense. Why is an established contender like Siver fighting Nam Phan? As for the fight, I have to take Siver to win, either on points or by knockout.

Bantamweight match: John Albert (7-3, 1-2 UFC) vs. Scott Jorgensen (13-6, 2-2 UFC)

Albert’s a fun fighter to watch, but he’s biting off more than he can chew here. Jorgensen’s stock is down after losses to Renan Barao and Eddie Wineland, but those are two of the better fighters in the bantamweight division. Jorgensen is still a great wrestler with a decent jab and straight punch. I see him neutralizing Albert’s offense and winning by TKO or decision.

Nate Diaz, Wrestlers, and Benson Henderson

There’s a rule of thumb with Nate Diaz (and his brother Nick as well). If he fights a wrestler, he’s going to lose. Otherwise, he’s going to win. Simple as that.

I wanted to quantify this a little bit, and to do this, I decided to turn to Fight Metric and sort Diaz’s opponents by takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Now, this doesn’t represent a spectrum of who is and who isn’t a wrestler, but it might be instructive, so let’s take a look.

(Note that this doesn’t include non-UFC fights.)

Opponent	Takedowns/15	Did Diaz win?
Rory MacDonald	4.61	No
Clay Guida	3.85	No
Dong Hyun Kim	3.40	No
Manny Gamburyan	3.34	Yes
Kurt Pellegrino	2.90	Yes
Joe Stevenson	2.75	No
Gray Maynard	2.59	No
Junior Assuncao	2.43	Yes
Jim Miller	2.17	Yes
Melvin Guillard	1.97	Yes
Marcus Davis	1.60	Yes
Takanori Gomi	1.52	Yes
Donald Cerrone	1.43	Yes
Alvin Robinson	1.24	Yes
Josh Neer	1.11	Yes
Rory Markham	0.00	Yes

Against the seven fighters highest on this list, Diaz is 2-5. Against the bottom nine, Diaz is 9-0. So at first glance, there appears to be something to this. And look at the two fighters Diaz beat near the top of the list. Manny Gamburyan was likely winning when he suffered a freak shoulder injury against Diaz. Kurt Pellegrino was also likely winning when Diaz caught him in a triangle choke. If Gamburyan doesn’t get injured, and Pellegrino has tighter submission defense, Diaz could easily be 0-7 against the fighters more likely to go for takedowns.

On the flip side, some would argue that Diaz should have won decisions against Clay Guida, Gray Maynard, and Dong Hyun Kim. I’ll be the first to agree with somebody who argues that takedowns are a badly overvalued judging criteria. But if we’re looking at how likely a fighter is to win, we need to assume that the judges are going to score fights the same way they usually do – by adopting the attitude that in a round with somewhat even striking, the fighter who lands a takedown wins the round by default. (Maynard actually never landed a takedown against Diaz, and won a split decision by boxing against him.)

For his part, UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson has landed 2.96 takedowns per 15 minutes according to Fight Metric, which would place him fifth on the above list. And unlike Gamburyan and Pellegrino, Henderson is a top-notch fighter in the UFC. At the very least, Henderson is unlikely to lose by triangle choke. This is not information that bodes well for Diaz.

If Diaz wants to beat Henderson, he will likely have to do it by landing so many more strikes than Henderson that whatever takedowns Henderson lands aren’t enough to win rounds in the eyes of the judges. I won’t count Diaz out of this fight, but I will argue the odds are against him.

SILVA Scores Update – UFC 150

I just wanted to let everybody know that the lists of SILVA scores have been updated, and all scores that have been processed in version 2.1 can be found here.

Working on these scores constantly is a grind, especially when it’s very hard to match subjective (scouting) analysis with the numbers alone. For what it’s worth, SILVA 2.1 is 21-13 predicting MMA fights since I’ve implemented it. The betting public, by comparison, is 24-10. I consider the betting lines to be the gold standard in terms of predicting fights… if SILVA is ever close to matching them, especially given the limitations I’ve placed on it to keep it objective, I’ll consider it a major accomplishment.

As soon as I get thorough lists of current SILVA scores, I’ll go back and see how it would have done predicting past fights, and comparing those numbers to the betting lines as well.

Coming up this week, I’ll have some coverage of Saturday’s Strikeforce event featuring Ronda Rousey vs. Sarah Kaufman, and I’ll get some more SILVA scores done as well. More SILVA scores. MOAR SILVA SCORES. Eventually, I’ll get to where this blog is about more than just SILVA scores. Hopefully. Maybe.

 

UFC 150 Post-Fight Analysis

As soon as the main event of UFC 150 ended, I went straight to updating SILVA scores. Naturally, I had just gotten started doing this when there was a power outage here in 110-degree Fresno. I’ll have updated SILVA scores later tonight or tomorrow. For now, here are my thoughts on the fights:

-First of all, the decision win for Benson Henderson over Frankie Edgar may be considered controversial by some, but not me. I personally scored the first round for Henderson, the second and fifth rounds for Edgar, and the remaining two rounds for who the hell knows. It was such a close fight that I would have been just fine with a draw (the UFC and the fans in Denver likely disagree). Perhaps Henderson deserved the slight edge, based on the significant strike data, but as I often say, not every significant strike is equal. (A quick look at Fight Metric shows different totals than were displayed on the UFC broadcast – 66 significant strikes for Edgar, 62 for Henderson.) As much as I would have loved a decisive conclusion here, sometimes that just doesn’t happen.

-Melvin Guillard nearly scored a quick knockout of Donald Cerrone, then was taken out with a quick kick to the temple and a follow-up right hand. Cerrone said in the post-fight interview with Joe Rogan that he knew Guillard would follow up his big punch with some knees, and I wish Guillard wouldn’t do that. His hands are what hurt people in the first place; he should use his punches to finish the job. But credit goes to Cerrone for recovering well from Guillard’s strikes to finish by a beautiful KO.

-Part of what makes fighters like Jake Shields successful is that they know what they’re good at, and stick to it. Shields is an excellent grappler and mediocre striker. He knows this, and therefore always tries to take fights to the ground, where he can out-grapple and perhaps submit his opponent. That’s why it was frustrating to see Ed Herman willingly clinch with Shields so much. Herman was clearly the better striker in my opinion, but he lost because he played Shields’s game.

-Props to Buddy Roberts for taking the fight to Yushin Okami, lighting up the former title challenger with a barrage of strikes early. Unfortunately for Roberts, he had no answer for the clinch and grappling of Okami. This should serve as a red flag for Okami, who has never been known for precision striking, but looked slow and ineffective with it against Roberts. His grappling is still very good, but he won’t be able to hang with the best at 185 pounds if he doesn’t tighten up that striking defense. By the way, I was completely fine with the referee stoppage; this is a regulated sport we’re talking about, and if Roberts can’t move while Okami is punching him from back mount on the ground, it’s checkmate.

-Max Holloway and Justin Lawrence were a little more patient and calculating than I expected, but they put on a great fight. And Holloway showed he has a pretty solid chin, because Lawrence hit him very hard a couple times early in the fight. Sadly, Lawrence’s conditioning held him back again, as he visibly faded in the second round before being stopped with a body shot. Great performance by Holloway, but one which probably extinguishes whatever hype Lawrence had behind him going in.

-Just like Dennis Bermudez said, it seems he can’t win a fight without getting hurt by a strike at some point. This time, it was a well-timed knee on the part of Tommy Hayden that put him down, but Bermudez did a great job of recovering to end up winning by submission. I was happy to see Hayden have more success in this fight than he did against Fabricio Camoes, but I have to question whether or not he has what it takes to compete in the UFC – he’s now been finished in the first round twice. As for Bermudez, I can’t get excited about his potential until he wins without getting decked.

-Just as I would hate to be a judge for the main event between Henderson and Edgar, I would hate to be a referee in one of Jared Hamman’s fights. The man takes so much punishment, and looks so awful in the process, but somehow just keeps fighting back. And he did land a huge number of strikes on Michael Kuiper – they just weren’t nearly as solid as Kuiper’s punches and leg kicks. Honestly, I’m a bit concerned about Hamman’s health if he fights for too long, as he seems to get knocked silly multiple times whenever he fights. By the way, great job by Kuiper in getting his first win against a quality opponent; here’s hoping we see him take on a tough wrestler next, and see if he’s improved that takedown defense.

-Ken Stone may be known for a fragile chin, but wow, Erik Perez took him out quickly. The stoppage was perfect in my opinion, as Perez knocked Stone out with one punch, and then woke him up with the next. Here’s hoping Perez’s next fight goes a little longer than 17 seconds so we can learn more about him.

-Chico Camus put together a solid performance in his UFC debut against Dustin Pague. Camus was caught in a couple tough situations, but did a good job of staying calm and not getting too close to being submitted. As for Pague, I’m sure he’ll get another chance in the UFC due to his willingness to fight on short notice, but at 1-3 in the UFC now, he really needs to win next time.

-Nik Lentz absolutely decimated Eiji Mitsuoka. Mitsuoka had no answer for any aspect of Lentz’s game. Lentz is probably an above-average UFC fighter at featherweight, but even with this win, I’m not sure about the idea of him making a title run. When he beats somebody like Ricardo Lamas, then we’ll talk. Mitsuoka, on the other hand, has had a quality professional MMA career, but I really got the feeling his chance in the UFC came too late, as he’s fought for 11 years and is now 36 years old. He really didn’t look like somebody who could hang in the UFC against Lentz.

Bonus Analysis: I was hoping that Bruce Buffer saying “It’s FIGHT time!” at UFC on Fox 4 was just some kind of slip on his part. It seems I was wrong. Why he changed his catch-phrase is completely beyond me.

SILVA Predictions for UFC 150

Apologies for the quiet week, everybody… I’ll try to get back on a regular blogging schedule starting next week. Here are the SILVA predictions for UFC 150 this Saturday:

 

Since I haven’t done any individual fight previews for this event, I’ll give some quick thoughts on each of the fights:

-At UFC 144, SILVA picked Frankie Edgar to beat Benson Henderson, but Henderson won a close decision. This time around, SILVA is picking Henderson, and I have a feeling it might be wrong again. Really, this is a very close and competitive match, and might simply come down to who the judges feel like giving the win to. I favor Henderson, but very slightly.

-To use some bad “MMA math” type analysis, Melvin Guillard fought a very close contest against Jeremy Stephens at UFC 119, which was a striking match. When Donald Cerrone fought Stephens, he was clearly better from beginning to end, again in a striking match. I do think Cerrone is both a better technical striker than Guillard, and a much, much better submission fighter. Guillard always has a chance to win by KO, and can never be counted out, but I feel it’s his only path to victory in this one.

-It’s been great to see Ed Herman rebound from injury nicely with a three-fight winning streak, but keep in mind that his wins – over Tim Credeur, Kyle Noke, and Clifford Starks – have not been against the cream of the crop in the UFC middleweight division. His opponent, Jake Shields, is in decline in my opinion, but has still only lost to Georges St-Pierre and Jake Ellenberger in his recent past. I’m picking Shields to win, because I consider him the better overall fighter, but Herman’s wrestling base and better striking could give Shields real trouble. Shields is not a safe pick by any means.

-Yushin Okami has often been listed by me as an overrated fighter on this website, and despite his loss to Tim Boetsch at UFC 144, I still consider him a bit overrated. However, I don’t think Buddy Roberts is the guy to beat him. I give Roberts credit for taking this fight on short notice, replacing Rousimar Palhares, but he’s going to have to find a way to out-strike Okami and prevent the fight from going to the ground. I don’t see that happening.

-SILVA doesn’t give much credit to Max Holloway or Justin Lawrence, but they should both be considered very good prospects, that SILVA hasn’t had time to figure out yet. I particularly like Holloway’s potential, as all of his professional MMA fights have been against experienced opponents, and he’s already had a lot of success. Since Lawrence doesn’t qualify for a SILVA score, there is no official SILVA prediction for that fight, but my personal prediction will be for Holloway to win, because I feel Holloway has better volume striking, and better conditioning.

-Dennis Bermudez is a very good wrestler, but one whose chin and submission defense are potential liabilities. His opponent, Tommy Hayden, has a good submission game, but is unlikely to find himself in good position on the ground against the better wrestler in Bermudez. I see Bermudez stifling Hayden in a similar fight to his last win, against Pablo Garza.

-Jared Hamman has a good SILVA score, but he’s an example of a fighter whose underlying performances are not that great. Either Hamman is blasted with strikes, as was the case against Costa Philippou and Alexander Gustafsson, or he suffers through trials by fire to find a way to win, as was the case against C.B. Dollaway. With that said, his opponent, Michael Kuiper, doesn’t have any history of winning against tough competition, despite his 11-1 record. His only truly tough opponent, Rafael Natal, was able to take him down repeatedly, although Kuiper did have a lot of success in the third round of that fight. Kuiper is a threat to win by knockout here, given Hamman’s chin, but my pick to win will be the more proven fighter in Hamman.

-It’s hard to gauge how good Erik Perez is by his last fight against John Albert. Albert was winning most of the first round before getting caught in an armbar attempt from Perez, and having the fight stopped prematurely in my opinion. SILVA is no help either – it charges all four of Perez’s losses against him, but three of those were by split decision. Without knowing enough about Perez, I’m going to pick him to win, as I think he’s a better fighter than his record and SILVA score indicate.

-Speaking of fighters I don’t know enough about, SILVA likes UFC newcomer Chico Camus to win his debut against Dustin Pague. Statistically speaking, their level of competition has been very similar, with Pague having fought a couple more tough opponents, and Camus entering with a better record. I’ll be learning about Camus during the fight, but based on the little I know right now, I expect it to be close and competitive.

-The one fight on Facebook, between Nik Lentz and Eiji Mitsuoka, features two fighters both overrated by SILVA. Lentz is overrated based on a draw against Thiago Tavares and a decision win against Tyson Griffin, both of which probably should have been decisions against him. Likewise, Mitsuoka has a majority decision win against Joachim Hansen, a win that helps his SILVA score a ton, but also a win he probably didn’t deserve. I do think Lentz will win this fight, as I expect him to dictate where it takes place, but Mitsuoka has a good submission game and shouldn’t be counted out.

SILVA Scores Release – 7/26

Sometimes, I get so deep into processing SILVA scores that I neglect to produce content on this blog. So I got an idea… why don’t I write posts releasing a batch of SILVA scores, and then give a little commentary on them? It could be an easy way to get some discussion going, or even get my creative juices flowing.

When I’m not processing SILVA scores for an upcoming UFC event, I’ll be working on fighters listed at Fight Matrix, going from the highest-ranked fighters in each weight class to the lowest.

SILVA scores that have already been processed (including for Anderson Silva) can be found here.

 

IN THIS POST

• Jose Aldo
• Joseph Benavidez
• Dominick Cruz
• Junior dos Santos
• Benson Henderson
• Dan Henderson
• Jon Jones
• Martin Kampmann
• Georges St-Pierre
• Cain Velasquez

 

Georges St-Pierre – SILVA score: 101.26

I don’t think there is anybody who would question how good St-Pierre was before his multiple knee injuries. After those injuries, I wonder if St-Pierre will be able to keep fighting at a championship level. Knee injuries like St-Pierre suffered are no joke, and if Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is any indication, St-Pierre won’t be as mobile or explosive as he used to be. At the same time, St-Pierre is one of the very best athletes in MMA, and if anybody could suffer through what he has, and come out of it still a world-class athlete, it’s him.

Jon Jones – SILVA score: 100.57

If you’re ranking fighters based on accomplishment, then Jones might be #3 or #4 on the pound-for-pound list. But if you’re ranking fighters based on ability, I think Jones is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Already, he’s taken on Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Lyoto Machida, and friend-turned-rival Rashad Evans. Only Machida had even a small amount of success against him, and whether or not Machida won the first round against Jones is very debatable. Jones is simply dominating his division, and I highly doubt that Dan Henderson or Alexander Gustafsson will see success where others have failed.

Benson Henderson – SILVA score: 97.19

The UFC lightweight champion has wins over Frankie Edgar, Jim Miller, Clay Guida, Donald Cerrone twice, Mark Bocek, Shane Roller, and Anthony Njokuani. His one recent loss was a decision to Anthony Pettis, in the fight where Henderson was blasted by the “Showtime kick,” where Pettis kicked off the cage wall and knocked Henderson down in the follow through. Even then, it was a close fight where it wasn’t obvious who the judges would score it for. Henderson defines “well-rounded,” and has the tools to beat any challenger the UFC can find for him.

Jose Aldo – SILVA score: 95.81

I’m surprised to see Aldo at 95.81, and not above 100 alongside Georges St-Pierre and Jon Jones. The culprit is not Aldo, who has not been really threatened since becoming WEC featherweight champion, but the division he fights in. Urijah Faber and Chad Mendes were worthy challengers for him, but Mark Hominick and Manny Gamburyan were not. Now that we’ve gotten to Erik Koch and maybe Ricardo Lamas as challengers for Aldo’s title, we may be set up to see a dynasty like that of Georges St-Pierre and Anderson Silva in the featherweight division.

Junior dos Santos – SILVA score: 89.05

Junior’s SILVA score of 89.05 might seem low for a UFC champion, but it’s only because the heavyweight division isn’t as deep as most other weight classes in the UFC. While champions like Georges St-Pierre have no shortage of elite contenders to take on, dos Santos has a record filled with a mix of elite and mediocre heavyweights. For every Cain Velasquez or Frank Mir on his record, there’s a Gabriel Gonzaga or Gilbert Yvel. Of course, dos Santos has only done everything that could be asked of him, demolishing pretty much everybody he’s fought. With the possible exception of Daniel Cormier, I highly doubt any heavyweight right now would top a SILVA score of 89.05.

Joseph Benavidez – SILVA score: 86.30

I like Benavidez, but this is the one SILVA score on this list I think is a bit off. Perhaps it’s accurate for how well Benavidez will perform in the flyweight division, but as Benavidez has lost to Dominick Cruz twice, I think his SILVA score should be a little lower than Cruz’s. In any event, as an objective system, SILVA will never be accurate for 100% of fighters.

Dan Henderson – SILVA score: 85.77

I remember when Henderson beat Wanderlei Silva at PRIDE 33 to win their 93 kg championship, and being very happy for Henderson, since I felt he was already in the twilight of his career at that point. Five years later… what twilight? Henderson just keeps rolling along, whether it’s steamrolling an opponent like Renato “Babalu” Sobral, or surviving a grueling war against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. I don’t like Henderson’s chances against Jon Jones, but then, I don’t like any fighter’s chances against Jones. And besides, Henderson’s right hand can never be dismissed, even if he has an absurd 11-inch reach disadvantage.

Cain Velasquez – SILVA score: 84.89

If Junior dos Santos is clearly the #1 heavyweight in the UFC, Cain Velasquez is clearly #2. That’s why Velasquez will be receiving a rematch against dos Santos, despite losing so quickly to him at the first UFC on Fox event last November. And apart from that fight, Velasquez has crushed everybody he’s faced in his career, from Brad Morris and Denis Stojnic to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Brock Lesnar.

Martin Kampmann – SILVA score: 81.46

The thing a lot of people don’t realize about Kampmann is that he easily could be 9-1 in his last 10 fights. Kampmann is 7-3, but I felt he deserved a decision win against Jake Shields at UFC 121, and he got robbed against Diego Sanchez in his fight after that. That’s coming from somebody who feels the term “robbed” is absurdly overused in MMA. On the flip side, Kampmann skated by Rick Story at UFC 139, was well on his way to losing to Thiago Alves before getting a miracle guillotine choke in the fight’s last minute, and had to survive an onslaught from Jake Ellenberger before winning by TKO himself. This is a roundabout way of saying that I think Kampmann’s SILVA score of 81.46 sounds about right.

Dominick Cruz – SILVA score: 77.11

SILVA 1.2 was not particularly friendly to Cruz, but SILVA 2.1 is just hostile, giving him a SILVA score well below the other UFC champions. There is an argument to be made for this. While Cruz has successfully defended the bantamweight title multiple times, he’s never really been dominant, despite his nickname of “The Dominator.” Cruz beat Joseph Benavidez by split decision and had very competitive fights against Demetrious Johnson and Urijah Faber. Cruz’s SILVA score is a virtual tie with prospective challenger Renan Barao, and after seeing Barao’s performance against Faber, I can definitely see that being an accurate estimate.