UFC on Fox 10 Predictions Summary

Here’s what FPR thinks of the fights:

 

*I am going against FPR on these fights. I’m picking Camus over Meza, Pettis over Caceres, and Miocic over Gonzaga. In all three cases, the strong opinion of the betting public overrides the weak opinion of FPR.

**This is my best-guess FPR for debuting fighters.

Last Event: 7-5 (58.3%)

Year To Date: 14-8 (63.6%)

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: -$0.90

Current Bankroll: $49.40

Total Investment: $64.80

Total Return: -$0.60

Return on Investment: -0.9%

At the last event Brad Tavares +180 was a winner for me while Derek Brunson +190 and Charlie Brenneman -160 were losers. I’ll admit that Brenneman was a bad bet… but I think Brunson was a good one. He surprised 99% of the MMA community by winning the first two rounds against Yoel Romero (I think I was the only person not surprised by this). Then Brunson gassed out horribly and Romero finished him with strikes in round 3. I can’t be too disappointed with making that selection.

For this event I have:

Donald Cerrone -200: $3.00 to win $1.50

Darren Elkins +105: $2.50 to win $2.63

Benson Henderson by decision -114: $1.14 to win $1.00

Alex Caceres +165: $1.00 to win $1.65

Nikita Krylov +310: $0.58 to win $1.80

I know I said I wasn’t going to bet on Krylov but I couldn’t help myself. I just can’t imagine how Walt Harris is a -410 favorite to beat anybody in the UFC. I kept the bet small because I don’t trust Krylov at all.

I’ve also placed a bet on Billy Daniels +1500: $0.50 to win $7.50 to beat Pedro Munhoz at tonight’s RFA event. For some reason Munhoz has gone from -280 to -4500. I don’t know anything about either fighter, but I placed a flier on Daniels just because of how ridiculous the line is.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

UFC on Fox 10 Prediction: Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens

I’m going back to my usual style of writing for this prediction… because I’m about to go into rant mode regarding Darren Elkins.

What does Elkins have to do to get some respect from the MMA community? All Elkins has done is rack up a 7-2 UFC record, with one of the two losses to Chad Mendes, and you would never know it by examining the complete lack of hype surrounding him.

Of course I know what the problem is. Elkins doesn’t have a great highlight reel. He’s a grinder – five of his seven wins are by unanimous decision, usually with takedowns and grappling. Elkins also isn’t a big talker. He’s not Richard Sherman – stick a microphone in his face and you’re not going to get a memorable sound byte. Elkins is pretty much a perfect example of how to be a good fighter and not sell any pay per views or get people excited to see him fight.

Let’s look at some of the statistics. Significant strikes: Elkins 249, opponents 156. Takedowns: Elkins 13, opponents 2. Submission attempts: Elkins 10, opponents 6. Elkins is 1-1 in knockdowns, having been knocked out by Chad Mendes but knocking out Antonio Carvalho.

Elkins’ body of work has resulted in an FPR of +2.90, good for 8th best in the featherweight division. The fighters currently higher rated than Elkins: Jose Aldo, Mendes, Frankie Edgar, Chan Sung Jung, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Dustin Poirier, and Jim Hettes. Elkins most recently defeated a quality opponent in Hatsu Hioki. He’s legit.

And now Elkins is the underdog against Jeremy Stephens. In my view Stephens has the advantage over Elkins in exactly one category: knockout power. Stephens is certainly more of a threat to win by knockout than Elkins. Here’s my question: has anybody seen what happens when Stephens is forced to grapple?

Overall, Stephens has been taken down 22 times, had his guard passed 43 times, and had 19 submissions attempted against him. His takedown defense is below average at just 54 percent. He’s up 24-22 in takedowns, but remove his fights against Estevan Payan and Danny Downes and that ratio plummets to 12-22.

It’s also been a very long time since Stephens has been tested against an opponent with grappling as his primary offense. Tell me which of these fighters are grapplers first: Rony Jason, Estevan Payan, Yves Edwards, Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, Danny Downes, Marcus Davis, Sam Stout, Melvin Guillard, and Justin Buchholz. The answer is zero – zero of those fighters are grapplers first… but they represent Stephens’ last ten opponents.

The last time Stephens faced a grappler was against Gleison Tibau. In that fight Stephens was completely smothered as he was taken down five times, had his guard passed nine times, and was caught in three submission attempts. He ended up losing by unanimous decision despite Tibau landing a grand total of seven significant strikes.

That’s not to say Elkins is as good or effective a wrestler as Tibau but it illustrates what happens when Stephens is forced to grapple. It’s not a good style match for him. Even Pettis took him down six times. Joe Lauzon took him down and submitted him. Rafael Dos Anjos took him down four times and attempted two submissions before Stephens knocked him out in the third round.

 

None of this is to suggest that Stephens is doomed to being smothered by Elkins – just that it’s the most likely outcome. It’s quite possible Elkins could meet the same fate as Dos Anjos, being knocked out before he can really get his game going. Either way I don’t see Stephens being able to stuff Elkins’ takedowns and battering him on the feet. It’s a competitive fight that I feel Elkins should be able to succeed in.

Pick: Darren Elkins by decision

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Right now Stephens is -125 with Elkins the underdog at +105. I really like a bet on Elkins here for a number of reasons. I think the style match is favorable to Elkins. I also think Elkins is an “anti-hype” fighter in a way – while a guy like Yoel Romero sends shockwaves throughout the MMA community with every fight he wins, Elkins can dominate an opponent like Steven Siler and nobody notices or cares. Now Elkins is facing a “name” opponent in Stephens. I think it all adds up to a situation where Elkins is easily undervalued. I’ve placed a bet on Elkins +105, risking $2.50 to win $2.63.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am not a betting professional and I do not recommend following my picks in any serious way. Whenever you make a bet on any fight, you do so at your own risk.

UFC Fight Night 27 Predictions

As much as I would like to write previews for each fight set to take place on Wednesday, sometimes life just gets in the way. I’ve been very busy in recent days and just haven’t had the time to sit down and write about the fights.

I’ve already written detailed analysis of three fights on this card: Roger Bowling vs. Abel Trujillo, Ben Alloway vs. Zak Cummings, and James Head vs. Jason High. I’ll have a thorough breakdown of the main event between Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann tomorrow. Here are my thoughts on the other fights:

Donald Cerrone (+2.80 FPR) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+3.39 FPR)

Cerrone is an aggressive fighter who lands a lot of offense but tends to get hit a lot. Dos Anjos is a much more measured fighter – he has much tougher defense but isn’t nearly as aggressive. Both fighters are skilled in all areas, but Dos Anjos has a clear advantage in takedowns. Cerrone is taken down more than twice as often as Dos Anjos is. In an otherwise very close and tough fight, that’s just enough for me to favor the Brazilian.

Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos by decision

Kelvin Gastelum (-1.92 FPR) vs. Brian Melancon (-0.67 FPR)

Gastelum’s surprising run on TUF is a testament to his mental toughness and wrestling abilities. However, his fights on TUF also showed Gastelum as a very flawed fighter. He was very sloppy on the ground and not a polished striker. Gastelum beat Uriah Hall by split decision, but Hall has been exposed as a mediocre (at best) UFC fighter. I am not prepared to jump on the Gastelum bandwagon until he develops further as a mixed martial artist.

Pick: Brian Melancon by decision

Court McGee (+4.05 FPR) vs. Robert Whittaker (+0.10 FPR)

I’m loading up on underdog picks so far, but this is the one I’m most confident about. What has Robert Whittaker shown in the UFC, other than the ability to out-strike a very poor striker in Colton Smith? Whittaker has some talent for sure, but if he decides to stand and trade with Court McGee, I don’t see him being able to keep up with McGee’s relentless pace.

Pick: Court McGee by decision

Takeya Mizugaki (-0.28 FPR) vs. Erik Perez (+0.33 FPR)

It’s tough to gauge where Erik Perez is among UFC bantamweights. So far, he’s looked phenomenal against a very low level of competition. Takeya Mizugaki is a huge step up from the likes of Bryon Bloodworth and Ken Stone. With that said it’s been a long time since Mizugaki has dominated in a fight. Perez has shown me just enough talent to think he’ll pass this test, but I’m not confident.

Pick: Erik Perez by decision

Bubba McDaniel (-2.28 FPR) vs. Brad Tavares (+0.50 FPR)

This matchmaking boggles my mind. Hasn’t Brad Tavares beaten enough fringe UFC middleweights to earn a tougher opponent? Having watched McDaniel on tape extensively… he doesn’t have close to UFC talent. His striking is very poor, his grappling is sloppy, and he can’t take punishment to the body. Tavares should get the stoppage win here.

Pick: Brad Tavares by TKO

Dylan Andrews (-1.32 FPR) vs. Papy Abedi (-2.48 FPR)

Papy Abedi has shown brief glimpses of talent in the UFC, but has more often failed to live up to the lofty expectations some had of him. This is very subjective, but there have been times where it’s looked like he has a lot of trouble dealing with the pressure of fighting tough opponents in the UFC. I’d like to think Dylan Andrews should get the win, but Andrews was also terrified of Uriah Hall on TUF. I’m not confident about this one.

Pick: Dylan Andrews by TKO

Justin Edwards (-0.71 FPR) vs. Brandon Thatch (-2.00 FPR)

In this fight, Justin Edwards will be taking on his doppelganger. They don’t look the same, but they both have a bunch of wins in under one minute. From the small amount of footage I’ve seen, Thatch definitely has some talent, especially as a striker. The betting public loves Thatch to win this fight and I certainly don’t have enough information to go against them. At the same time, I’m 0-2 picking against FPR and my gut says Edwards submits him. But what does my gut know anyway?

Pick: Brandon Thatch by TKO

Darren Elkins (+4.44 FPR) vs. Hatsu Hioki (+3.31 FPR)

Elkins has flown under the radar at 145 pounds, but FPR is screaming that he’s a force in the division, despite his quick KO loss to Chad Mendes in his last fight. For his part, Hatsu Hioki has shown that he’s very willing to out-perform his opponent from bottom position and lose a decision because of it. I have a feeling something similar will happen in this fight.

Pick: Darren Elkins by decision

UFC Matchup Analysis (6/13): Gamburyan vs. Miller, Perez vs. Mizugaki

Last week, the UFC announced about 30 fights, which made it virtually impossible for me to break them down with any sort of detail. This week, there’s seven fights to look at, which should be a more reasonable task.

IN THIS POST

• Manny Gamburyan vs. Cole Miller
• Erik Perez vs. Takeya Mizugaki
• Darren Elkins vs. Hatsu Hioki
• John Lineker vs. Phil Harris
• Ian McCall vs. Iliarde Santos
• Bristol Marunde vs. Viscardi Andrade
• Louis Gaudinot vs. Tim Elliott

As always, a big thanks to Fight Metric for providing the statistics seen in this post.

UFC on Fox Sports 1 (Aug. 17): Manny Gamburyan vs. Cole Miller

TUF Vets Added to Boston Card

This looks like a very tough stylistic matchup for Miller. Gamburyan has a very strong Judo base, and is very tough to take down or grapple against as a result. Generally, when Gamburyan loses, it’s because of the striking game. Unfortunately for Miller, his specialty is submissions, and it should be hard to apply those against Gamburyan.

In 12 UFC/WEC fights, Gamburyan has been taken down just three times and had one submission attempted against him. In 13 UFC fights, Miller has landed just five takedowns. Whatever takedown offense Miller tries should prove futile, which will force Miller into a striking match.

Gamburyan is no master striker, but I like his chances in a striking match against Miller, even with what figures to be a huge height and reach disadvantage.

UFC on Fox Sports 1 (Aug. 28): Erik Perez vs. Takeya Mizugaki

Goyito Returns at Indy

Perez has a lot of hype behind him, but it’s important to look at his level of competition so far. Nothing against Byron Bloodworth, John Albert, or Ken Stone, but beating those three only proves Perez deserves a step up in competition. He’s getting one with Takeya Mizugaki as his opponent.

The thing about Mizugaki is that while he isn’t particularly bad at anything, he’s not really good at any one thing either. His takedown game is decent and probably his biggest strength, but it’s far from dominant. If Perez’s takedown defense is on point, I can easily see him using a sprawl and brawl strategy to either out-point Mizugaki or stop him by TKO.

UFC on Fox Sports 1 (Aug. 28): Darren Elkins vs. Hatsu Hioki

Elkins Gets Home Turf Tilt vs. Hioki

It’s always fun when an underdog surprises everybody by winning a series of fights, and that’s exactly what Darren Elkins did en route to a 6-1 UFC record. Elkins isn’t the world’s most talented fighter, but he’s carved out an identity as a very good grinder. Elkins was knocked out by Chad Mendes in his last fight, but losing on short notice to the division’s second-best fighter shouldn’t be held against him too much.

Against Hatsu Hioki, I anticipate Elkins will be an underdog again, but I’m not sure he should be. Hioki’s takedown defense is nothing special; there’s no reason Elkins can’t take Hioki down and grind out a decision. Hioki’s ground game can be tricky, but as long as Elkins holds top position, I think he wins a potentially Clay Guida-esque decision.

UFC 163: John Lineker vs. Phil Harris

Flyweights Buzz Onto Brazil Card

Lineker put on a thrilling performance in his last fight against Azamat Gashimov. Of course, that was Azamat Gashimov, who has only ever beaten opponents who were 0-0. That makes Phil Harris a step up in competition, but I think Lineker should be a solid favorite here. Lineker is the better striker and should be able to scramble away from Harris’s takedown attempts enough to win by TKO or decision.

UFC 163: Ian McCall vs. Iliarde Santos

Flyweights Buzz Onto Brazil Card

It’s hard to know what to make of Ian McCall. He’s 1-4-1 in his WEC/UFC career, but against a murderer’s row of competition. Despite the dismal record, I still think McCall is one of the better flyweights in the UFC; he’s an excellent wrestler with some serious ground skills. Against Iliarde Santos, who was overmatched by a much bigger Iuri Alcantara in his UFC debut, I anticipate McCall will be able to win the fight wherever it goes.

UFC 163: Bristol Marunde vs. Viscardi Andrade

Rio Card Builds Stars, Steam

Speaking of fighters who have lost to Iuri Alcantara, Viscardi Andrade will be making his UFC debut against TUF 16 participant Bristol Marunde. Marunde just lost by knockout to a much bigger Clint Hester and will be returning to welterweight in this match. Until I do some tape study, I won’t have a good read on this fight. However, at first glance, I don’t see any future title contenders here, that’s for sure.

UFC 164: Louis Gaudinot vs. Tim Elliott

Gaudinot vs. Elliott to Lock Horns at 164

While Gaudinot had a much better performance against John Lineker than he had against Johnny Bedford, he was still hit way too much. Linker landed 96 significant strikes on Gaudinot in just under 10 minutes; that makes for 178 strikes absorbed in a 22 minute UFC career. Not good. Against Tim Elliott, a fighter who showcased some pretty good volume striking against John Dodson, I can only envision Gaudinot getting hit early and often. I don’t like his chances.

UFC on Fox 7 Post-Fight Analysis

This fight card looked like a good one on paper, and it delivered with a series of exciting fights and great finishes. Here are my thoughts on the competitors we just saw:

-I’ve seen a lot of people online saying Gilbert Melendez was robbed by the judges after his fight against Benson Henderson, but I disagree. Watching live, I scored the fight the same as judge Derek Cleary, giving the first two rounds to Henderson, and the final three rounds to Melendez. The fifth round seems to be the most contentious, but I honestly didn’t think that round went so well for Melendez. Fight Metric backs me up on this one – according to the guys over there, Henderson landed 14 significant strikes in that round, to just eight for Melendez. The overall fight was very close, so I would not have been upset if the judges had scored the fight for Melendez, but I had it for Henderson. I’m willing to re-watch the fight and revise my scoring if there’s an overwhelming consensus against my opinion.

-With that having been said, there’s only so long Henderson can compete in these super close fights before a decision will go against him. Of the nine UFC champions, Henderson is arguably the least dominant. I might pick Henderson to beat any other fighter in the UFC lightweight division, but there are a lot of fighters I feel have a good chance of beating him. According to Dana White, the winner of Gray Maynard vs. T.J. Grant will get the next title shot; Maynard is a great example of a fighter I think has a very good chance of beating Henderson if he gets that opportunity.

–Daniel Cormier became the first fighter to ever beat Frank Mir by a method other than knockout. Cormier was clearly the better overall striker in the fight, and he dominated Mir in the clinch. At the same time, Cormier didn’t showcase a performance that made me think he has a very good chance of beating Jon Jones. Cormier’s striking is only good, not great. His actual striking defense isn’t particularly good from what I’ve seen; mostly, Cormier’s ability to effectively defend strikes comes from his superb wrestling and clinch game, as opposed to striking skills like head movement and parrying. A fighter like Jones would likely be able to defend Cormier’s takedown attempts and out-point him standing.

-I would also say that if Cormier has any intention of challenging Jones, he should move down to 205 pounds now and take a fight in that weight class before his title challenge. I know Cormier recently said he can make the weight, but there have been plenty of fighters who have looked very sluggish after moving down a weight class. I would hate for Cormier’s worst, most sluggish performance to be in his biggest career fight.

-I thought Josh Thomson had what it took to beat Nate Diaz, but I didn’t see Thomson winning by knockout, not even close. Now we know what it takes to stop one of the Diaz brothers – something like Nate Diaz ducking into Thomson’s shin. Thomson hasn’t gotten much respect in recent years, and I’ve never understood why – even in his “lackluster” performances, he usually at least does enough to win the fight against tough competition. With that said, Thomson probably will struggle if he’s forced to fight some of the tougher wrestlers in the lightweight division, as his takedown defense is probably his biggest weakness.

-Memo to anybody in the UFC welterweight division: don’t stand with Matt Brown. It’s not because Brown is a master striker or anything, but he has a great combination of aggression and toughness. Brown was visibly hurt and dropped by Jordan Mein in the first round, but while a lot of fighters would have been stopped at that moment, Brown fought through the pain and came back to crush Mein with strikes in the second round. In a 28 fight career, Brown has never lost by TKO, but has been submitted nine times. So if you’re about to fight Matt Brown, here’s some advice… take him down!

-I have good news and bad news for Chad Mendes. The good news is that he’s clearly and obviously the second best featherweight in the world. The bad news is that he’s already been knocked out by the best featherweight, and now nobody else wants to fight him. I have a huge amount of respect for Darren Elkins, who stepped up to fight Mendes on short notice, but this fight showed that Elkins just doesn’t have the same kind of talent that elite featherweights have. I would hope the UFC is willing to give Mendes a chance to earn another title shot, but on the other hand, I don’t know which top ten featherweight would be willing to give Mendes a top contender fight.

-The one decision I thoroughly disagreed with tonight was the one that awarded Francis Carmont a victory over Lorenz Larkin. Carmont was barely able to produce any offense against Larkin, instead being stuffed when he tried to take Larkin to the ground – I was very impressed with Larkin’s improved takedown defense. Despite this, Carmont won a unanimous decision despite only 12 significant strikes and two takedowns. I don’t know who has the UFC record for winning a decision with the least amount of offense, but this has to be close.

–Myles Jury showed his well-rounded skill set again with a second-round KO victory against Ramsey Nijem. The first round was an entertaining, back-and-forth battle on the ground; both fighters landed takedowns and executed reversals, and Jury was close to locking up an armbar at one point. In the second round, Jury proved to be the better striker, as he caught Nijem with a big punch while Nijem lunged in with his chin exposed. I’m curious to see how far Jury will rise in the UFC lightweight division – I think he’s headed for a very solid UFC career, but he looks like a guy who is good but not great in all areas.

-As expected, Darren Uyenoyama had nothing for Joseph Benavidez. Benavidez was far better standing, and Uyenoyama’s guard game wasn’t nearly good enough to threaten Benavidez with any kind of submission attempt. Benavidez might be in the same boat as his teammate Mendes – a fighter who is clearly #2 in his division, but is stuck in a rut because he already lost to the champion. Then again, the flyweight division has no depth, so Benavidez probably has more hope of getting a title shot soon than Mendes does.

-I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fighter who is freakishly tall for his weight class have good takedown defense, and after his fight against Jorge Masvidal, it seems clear that Tim Means is no exception. Means did make it a close fight with his striking skills, and even had some nice elbows from bottom position. Overall, though, Masvidal deserved the victory, as he was the far better wrestler and slightly better striker.

-I hated picking against Means, but I’ve (finally) learned to not go too crazy when an unproven fighter wins emphatically against other unproven fighters. Jorge Masvidal was a very tough opponent, and Means at least proved he belongs in the UFC by making it a close fight, but high-level MMA is a different game.

-I’m glad the UFC hasn’t rushed T.J. Dillashaw. I’m a big believer that a fighter needs somewhere between nine to 12 fights before his skill set in MMA is fully developed. Since he entered the UFC at just 4-0, Dillashaw needed opponents like Hugo Viana who would challenge him enough to develop as a fighter, but not challenge him so much that he would be overwhelmed. Now at 8-1, Dillashaw is close to being ready for highly-ranked opponents in the bantamweight division, but I’d like to see him get one or two more fights against lower-level UFC opponents first.

–Roger Bowling is a fantastic front-runner, a fighter who almost always looks good in the first round, before fading in the second. Bowling did it again against Anthony Njokuani, winning the first round before being knocked out in the second. It’s easy to see why Bowling had so much hype behind him in his early career – his opponents on the regional circuit simply couldn’t survive Bowling’s first-round onslaught. But between Bowling’s lack of conditioning and wide open striking defense, he’s too flawed to win consistently at a high level.

-I had a lot of questions about Yoel Romero leading up to his fight against Clifford Starks. Could Romero, a silver medalist in freestyle wrestling in the 2000 Olympics, translate those abilities to high-level MMA? Would Romero show some development in his striking, particularly his defense? Has Romero learned any Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu? Of course, none of those questions were answered, as Romero simply took Starks out with an early flying knee. There’s no faulting Romero for winning in such decisive fashion, but I’ll be asking the same questions before his next fight.

UFC on Fox 7 Preview and Predictions

I’m really excited for this event. There are a bunch of fighters I’m really enthusiastic about on this card – this might be the best UFC on Fox card yet. Here are my thoughts on the fights:

Main Event: UFC Lightweight Championship Match (5 rounds)

Benson Henderson (18-2, 6-0 UFC) vs. Gilbert Melendez (21-2, 0-0 UFC)

I love getting championship fights in the main event of UFC on Fox shows, and I love seeing Benson Henderson defending his title against Gilbert Melendez on Fox. This looks like it will be a seriously action-packed fight; Henderson and Melendez are both known to set a very high pace and stick to it for five rounds. Outside of Melendez-Aoki, I can’t think of a fight involving either of these guys that I wasn’t thoroughly entertained by.

On the feet, I think this fight is going to be very even and close. Melendez tends to strike at a very high pace – he’s not afraid to move into striking range and mix it up with his opponents, and that’s led to a lot of exciting battles. Melendez has fast hands and throws them with very high volume. In contrast, Henderson doesn’t throw as many strikes, but he’s more accurate and does a better job of defending his opponent’s strikes. As long as this fight stays standing, it will be a battle between the aggression of Melendez and the more measured attack of Henderson.

While the striking game should be close on paper, I feel Henderson has an advantage in wrestling and grappling. Both fighters have landed takedowns somewhat frequently, but Henderson lands more takedowns and tends to do more with them. Henderson will actively engage his opponent on the ground, landing hard strikes and looking to set up submissions, while Melendez is more likely to just let his opponent stand back up. Since I think Henderson will probably land more takedowns in the fight, I think he’s more likely than Melendez to win a decision if the fight goes the distance (and it probably will).

With that said, I think Melendez has a much better chance of winning than the current betting lines would indicate. Right now, Henderson is about a -300 favorite, and Melendez is about a +250 underdog. Melendez deserves more respect than that in my opinion – if he can defend Henderson’s takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, there’s a very good chance that he can win this fight on points, or even win by TKO, since Henderson doesn’t have a fantastic chin (he’s never lost by TKO but has been knocked down multiple times). There’s a chance that Melendez can land a couple takedowns on Henderson as well.

If Henderson wins the takedown battle, I think he wins the fight. Otherwise, it’s a fight that could go either way.

Pick: Benson Henderson by decision

Co-Main Event: UFC Heavyweight Match (3 rounds)

Daniel Cormier (11-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (16-6, 14-6 UFC)

As I explained in my stats breakdown the other day, I think this is a horrible stylistic matchup for Frank Mir. Mir is an excellent submission fighter, and is very dangerous the moment a fight hits the floor, even off his back. While standing, Mir hits hard, but doesn’t have good technical striking, and just gets hit a lot. All six of Mir’s career losses are by TKO, and I think there’s a very good chance that Cormier will deliver number seven on Saturday evening.

The reason is because I don’t see how Mir can take Cormier to the ground. Mir’s ability to take down his opponents is fairly good by MMA standards, but that won’t be good enough against Cormier, a former Olympian in freestyle wrestling. Cormier has yet to be taken down in an MMA fight, and from what I’ve seen, nobody has come particularly close. It’s hard to imagine Mir being the first.

That means this fight will stay standing, and that’s bad news for Mir. Cormier has displayed a very smart striking approach in his fights. He has a good sense of when he’s in the right range to throw strikes, and is very good at clinching when his opponent fires back, effectively neutralizing his opponent’s attack. Cormier’s striking isn’t world-class by any means, but it should be good enough for him to out-strike Mir, who has never shown an ability to defend strikes effectively at all.

With Cormier’s nearly impenetrable takedown defense and Mir’s history of being finished by strikes, I just don’t see this fight going Mir’s way at all.

Pick: Daniel Cormier by TKO

UFC Lightweight Match (3 rounds)

Nate Diaz (16-8, 11-6 UFC) vs. Josh Thomson (19-5, 2-1 UFC)

I’ve been guilty of underrating Nate Diaz in the past. Diaz has a number of flaws as a fighter. Most notably, he has poor takedown defense, and doesn’t defend strikes particularly well. What I haven’t given Diaz credit for enough is his ability to wear his opponents out with volume, and his ability to threaten with submission attempts on the ground.

I’m going to risk underrating Diaz again, because I think Thomson can win this fight in an upset. Thomson is a badly underrated fighter in my opinion. He has a very well-rounded skill set, and the resume of a top 15 lightweight, but rarely is mentioned as one of the better lightweights in the world. I’m not saying Thomson is a threat to become UFC champion – his striking and wrestling aren’t quite good enough for that – but there are a lot of highly-ranked fighters he can beat.

Thomson matches up really well with Diaz in my opinion. He has good enough takedowns that he should be able to put Diaz on his back, and a quality submission game that should keep him out of danger on the ground. Thomson is also a smart fighter who should know to go for takedowns early (unlike Jim Miller, whose inexplicable decision to stand and strike with Diaz got him hurt and later submitted). Diaz is definitely a tough opponent, but I like Thomson’s chances.

Pick: Josh Thomson by decision

UFC Welterweight Match (3 rounds)

Matt Brown (16-11, 9-5 UFC) vs. Jordan Mein (27-8, 1-0 UFC)

Matt Brown is another fighter I’ve been guilty of underrating. Brown is 5-1 in his last six fights, but I believe the only time I actually picked him to win was when he fought Chris Cope at UFC 143. Brown doesn’t have the talent of most UFC fighters, but he’s very aggressive and tough to finish. Any time Brown is matched up against a striker, he’s at least going to make the fight entertaining – which means this should be an entertaining fight, since Jordan Mein definitely fits the description of “striker.”

At the same time, Mein should prove to be a higher level of striker than the fighters Brown has faced recently. Mein showcased his skills against Dan Miller in his last fight, finishing Miller late in the first round after having to escape an armbar early. Mein has more technical striking than Brown, better defense, and should have better conditioning as well. As long as Mein doesn’t give up too many takedowns, this is his fight to lose.

Pick: Jordan Mein by decision

I’m short on time, so it’s time to go to the lightning round for the preliminary fights…

-I’m really impressed by what Darren Elkins has done in his recent career, but he has run into the wrong opponent in Chad Mendes. Mendes should prove to be better than Elkins everywhere and win by decision.

-I picked against Francis Carmont in his last fight, because I think he’s overrated, but I think he matches up well with Lorenz Larkin. Larkin will have the advantage standing, but I think Carmont can land takedowns and do just enough to win a decision.

-It’s no secret I’m a huge fan of Myles Jury. I was so impressed by how he was able to completely shut down Michael Johnson in his last fight – his wrestling was on point and he took a very intelligent approach to the fight. Ramsey Nijem will likely put up more of a fight than Johnson did, but he’s not nearly good enough for me to get off the Jury hype train. Jury by decision.

–Darren Uyenoyama has fantastic grappling, which is great when he’s not fighting Joseph Benavidez. Benavidez should be able to keep this fight standing and cruise to a decision.

-I really like Tim Means, but one problem I’ve had is that when I get excited about a fighter, I tend to pick him even when he steps up in competition, and often get burned for it. Jorge Masvidal represents a huge step up in competition for Means, so I’m going to try to use my head and pick Masvidal here. I’ll be kicking myself if Means wins though.

-If T.J. Dillashaw is smart, he’ll take Hugo Viana to the ground. Viana is an aggressive striker with good power for the bantamweight division, but as long as Dillashaw goes for takedowns, Viana shouldn’t have the takedown defense to stop him or the submission game to threaten him on the ground.

–Roger Bowling is a very aggressive fighter, but struggles to land takedowns, leaves himself wide open to taking strikes, and tends to fade in the second round. Anthony Njokuani is a great volume striker, and should be good enough to defend most of Bowling’s takedowns and easily win the striking battle.

–Yoel Romero has a great amateur wrestling background, but he is far from a finished product in MMA. His striking is very sloppy and he struggled badly to land takedowns against Rafael Cavalcante in his last fight. I think Romero can land takedowns on Clifford Starks, so I’ll pick him to win here, but if Starks can stop his takedowns, he should easily win the striking battle. This one really can go either way.

UFC 158 Preview and Predictions

I’ll be giving my thoughts on the main event between Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz in a separate post. For now, here are my thoughts on the other fights scheduled to take place at UFC 158:

170 lbs: Carlos Condit (28-6, 5-2 UFC) vs. Johny Hendricks (14-1, 9-1 UFC)

Hendricks has become famous for possessing absurd knockout power in his left hand. After one-punch KO victories over Martin Kampmann and Jon Fitch, it might seem as if Hendricks should choose to stand and bang with anybody he’s matched up against. If he does that against Condit, I think it would be a mistake. Condit is a very skilled kickboxer who is good at avoiding power shots – he’s never been finished by KO/TKO in his 34 fight career. If this fight stays standing, I expect that Condit should be able to out-strike Hendricks.

I just don’t think the fight will stay standing. Hendricks is an outstanding wrestler, an NCAA national champion, and a fighter whose wrestling has translated to MMA very well. Hendricks has taken on a lot of tough wrestlers in the UFC welterweight division – Josh Koscheck, Mike Pierce, Rick Story, Charlie Brenneman – and his takedown game has held up well. In those fights combined, Hendricks has landed nine takedowns, while his opponents have landed six. Against Condit, a fighter known for having weak takedown defense, I expect Hendricks to land takedowns regularly and win by decision.

Prediction: Johny Hendricks by decision

170 lbs: Jake Ellenberger (28-6, 7-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (32-11-2, 10-4 UFC)

After a nearly two year absence from the UFC, Nate Marquardt returns as a welterweight to take on powerful wrestler Jake Ellenberger. Ellenberger is like a slightly worse version of Johny Hendricks. He has a ton of KO power to go along with very effective wrestling, but Ellenberger’s conditioning isn’t quite as good from what I’ve seen. When Ellenberger had Martin Kampmann hurt, he was unable to finish, which opened the door for Kampmann to come back and stop a fatigued Ellenberger.

I don’t think Ellenberger matches up well with Marquardt. While Ellenberger is always a threat to win by KO, Marquardt has only been stopped by KO/TKO once in 45 fights, and that was against Anderson Silva. I think Marquardt is the better overall striker, and should be able to out-point Ellenberger over the course of three rounds. For Ellenberger, the answer is to land takedowns, and whether or not he’ll be able to land them is a tough call. Marquardt has respectable takedown defense and is a huge welterweight, but Ellenberger is very much a power wrestler. Overall, it makes for a very close fight in which I slightly side with Marquardt.

Prediction: Nate Marquardt by decision

185 lbs: Chris Camozzi (18-5, 5-2 UFC) vs. Nick Ring (13-1, 3-1 UFC)

It always looks good to see that a fighter has a 5-2 UFC record, and that’s my best guess for why there’s some hype behind Chris Camozzi. Camozzi opened up as a +140 underdog against Nick Ring, but money immediately came in on Camozzi. The thing about Camozzi is that none of his performances have been all that impressive – his most impressive performance was in his last fight against Luiz Cane, but Cane’s striking defense is terrible. I respect what Camozzi brings to the UFC, but he’s never shown talent on par with a top 25 middleweight.

Against Nick Ring, I expect Camozzi to have a difficult time. The fight will probably take place on the feet, although it’s possible Ring could take Camozzi to the ground. But even on the feet, I favor Ring. I think Ring is not only the better striker, but even if Camozzi lands more strikes, Ring does have a history of being given questionable decisions by the judges. Camozzi is definitely competitive in this fight, but I think Ring has to be considered the favorite.

Prediction: Nick Ring by decision

155 lbs: Colin Fletcher (8-2, 0-1 UFC) vs. Mike Ricci (7-3, 0-1 UFC)

I guess The Ultimate Fighter goes a long way for aspiring UFC fighters, because Colin Fletcher and Mike Ricci have found themselves on a major pay per view main card, despite having zero professional UFC wins between them. Fletcher profiles as a fighter who would perform very well on the regional circuit, but struggle to win fights in the UFC. He’s a very tall and lanky fighter for the lightweight division, and has an excellent submission game. Unfortunately for Fletcher, he doesn’t have a very good takedown game, and should need help to get the fight to the ground.

Mike Ricci is unlikely to give him that help. Ricci is also a big lightweight, and although he was smothered by Colton Smith in his last fight, I doubt Ricci will allow Fletcher to take him to the ground. Fletcher is not a bad striker either, but that’s where Ricci is at his best. If this fight hits the ground for any length of time, it could get interesting, but otherwise, I expect Ricci to consistently out-strike Fletcher and eventually win by TKO.

Prediction: Mike Ricci by decision

170 lbs: Patrick Cote (18-8, 5-8 UFC) vs. Bobby Voelker (24-8, 0-0 UFC)

It’s hard for me to get excited about this fight. Patrick Cote was never a great UFC fighter, but his recent performances have been uninspiring at best. It’s not good for a striker to get battered by his opponents, even if his opponents are fellow strikers like Cung Le and Alessio Sakara. Against Bobby Voelker, Cote should be able to find a way to win. Voelker is a journeyman with a history of losing when he steps up in competition, although he did win two out of three fights against Roger Bowling. Cote is the more talented fighter of the two, and I’m picking him to win, but I have very little confidence in the pick.

Prediction: Patrick Cote by TKO

145 lbs: Antonio Carvalho (15-5, 2-1 UFC) vs. Darren Elkins (15-2, 5-1 UFC)

Darren Elkins finally has some hype behind him after consecutive victories over Steven Siler and Diego Brandao. The Siler win was definitely Elkins’s most impressive in the UFC, but let’s not forget his history of uninspiring performances until then. The decision win over Michihiro Omigawa was very controversial, Elkins needed to come from behind to beat an exhausted Brandao, and beating Tiequan Zhang just doesn’t say very much. I think Antonio Carvalho is the more skilled fighter here, and has a great chance to upset Elkins in this match. My overall pick to win is Elkins, based on superior wrestling and conditioning, but I wouldn’t even think about betting on him.

Prediction: Darren Elkins by decision

170 lbs: Jordan Mein (26-8, 0-0 UFC) vs. Dan Miller (14-6, 6-5 UFC)

Dan Miller might be the more recognizable name here, but that doesn’t mean he’s the better fighter. I expect Jordan Mein to be the better and more active striker, and the better overall wrestler as well. The onus will be on Miller to take the fight to the ground and showcase his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but that should prove easier said than done against Mein. It’s certainly possible that Miller can find a way to drag this fight to the ground and win by submission, but if he doesn’t, this is Mein’s fight to lose.

Prediction: Jordan Mein by decision

155 lbs: Daron Cruickshank (12-2, 2-0 UFC) vs. John Makdessi (10-2, 3-2 UFC)

I think it’s hilarious that Cruickshank’s nickname is “Detroit Superstar.” I enjoy watching both him and Makdessi fight, and given both fighters’ willingness to stand and strike, this one should make for tremendous entertainment. In what is otherwise a 50-50 fight, I have to give the edge to Makdessi, because Cruickshank’s chin is very suspect. Cruickshank has a KO loss on his record to Luis Palomino, but was also knocked out by James Vick on The Ultimate Fighter. Since I think Makdessi has a much better chance of winning by TKO, he has to be the pick.

Prediction: John Makdessi by decision

170 lbs: Quinn Mulhern (18-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Rick Story (14-6, 7-4 UFC)

We need to find out how good Rick Story is for real. Is Story the fighter who defeated Johny Hendricks and Thiago Alves, and arguably should have been awarded a decision against Martin Kampmann? Or is Story the fighter who was smothered by Charlie Brenneman and dominated by Demian Maia? I think Story is a good but not great UFC welterweight, and that means he should be able to get past Quinn Mulhern here. Mulhern has an impressive looking record, but not a lot of impressive wins. There’s no reason to think Mulhern can stop Story’s game of close-range striking and takedowns.

Prediction: Rick Story by decision

135 lbs: T.J. Dillashaw (6-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Issei Tamura (7-3, 1-1 UFC)

Dillashaw might be the best prospect at 135 pounds in the UFC. A wrestler training out of Team Alpha Male, Dillashaw looked fantastic in wins over Walel Watson and Vaughan Lee. He still needs a lot of polish before he takes on highly ranked opponents in the bantamweight division, and I expect that’s why he’s been matched up against Issei Tamura. Tamura is a wrestler with KO power, but Dillashaw should prove the better wrestler, which leaves only the threat of a knockout. Dillashaw being a -650 favorite is a bit absurd, but he really should win this fight.

Prediction: T.J. Dillashaw by decision

135 lbs: Reuben Duran (8-4-1, 1-2 UFC) vs. George Roop (12-9-1, 2-5 UFC)

I already thought it was bad enough that the 6’1” George Roop would fight at 145 pounds; him fighting at 135 pounds is just horrible. This reminds me of when James Irvin dropped to 185 pounds – it was just hard to watch Irvin dehydrate himself so dangerously. I can’t pick Roop to win this fight – not when he already struggles to win fights in the UFC as it is. Roop can be tricky to deal with, but Duran is a solid striker who should be able to tag Roop standing. I like Duran to win, assuming Roop comes close enough to making weight that he’s allowed to fight in the first place.

Prediction: Reuben Duran by TKO

SILVA Predictions for UFC 146

A few surprises here:

Since I’ve written a preview post on the main card fights, here are some quick thoughts on the preliminaries:

-Diego Brandao is a heavy favorite to beat Darren Elkins, but SILVA seems to think Elkins is the heavy favorite. Brandao has a handful of TKO losses in his career, so that seems to be the way to beat him, but Elkins has only shown a marginal ability to win that way. I’ll go along with the betting public and pick Brandao in this one.

-Anybody who’s followed this blog knows all about how much I like Edson Barboza, and I’ve thought he would be a UFC superstar since before he made his UFC debut against Mike Lullo. So far, he hasn’t disappointed, and there’s no way in hell I’m not going to pick him to beat Jamie Varner. Hopefully Varner will at least test Barboza’s wrestling and grappling, unlike Barboza’s UFC opponents thus far.

-Jason “Mayhem” Miller is a better striker and has a better ground game than C.B. Dollaway, but Dollaway has better wrestling. In the end, this may come down to who gasses out first, and while Miller looked awful against Bisping, his gassing out was a bit of an aberration in my opinion. I like Miller to win, but it’s close.

-I’m definitely going against SILVA in Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig. Ludwig is awful on the ground, while Hardy has at least shown the ability to survive there, which explains the difference in how good these fighters are overall. But in this specific style match, I have to favor Ludwig, as he’s a better striker than Hardy.

-I’m going against SILVA for a third time in Jacob Volkmann vs. Paul Sass. Volkmann is actually the betting favorite, but what I wrote about how much I like Edson Barboza applies to Sass as well. It’s also a bad style match for Volkmann, who is a terrific wrestler and great at positioning, but has had to battle his fair share of submission attempts made against him. Enter Sass, the most likely fighter in MMA to want to be in bottom position on the ground.

-The biggest shocker is Glover Teixeira, whose SILVA score of 79.74 rates him #5 in the world at light-heavyweight. Teixeira has built his SILVA score in a similar manner as Nick Diaz and Hector Lombard: he’s beaten decent/good fighters on a very consistent basis. The only difference is that Teixeira hasn’t had a platform like Strikeforce or Bellator to showcase his skills. I like him to beat Kyle Kingsbury and at least make a run into title contention in the UFC light-heavyweight division.

-Daniel Pineda has looked very impressive in the UFC thus far, but on the flip side, his opponents were Max Holloway and Mackens Semerzier. Mike Brown may represent a step up in competition, but Brown has looked like a shot fighter since losing to Jose Aldo in the WEC. It’s a hard one to call, but I’ll go along with SILVA and take Pineda.